All posts by PARKERYL

The Weekly Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates. This week’s reading inched down 2 basis points to 6.62%, as it largely captured the drop in rates seen late last week. Last September, the average sank as far as 6.08%. But back in October 2023, Freddie Mac’s average saw a historic rise, surging to a 23-year peak of 7.79%.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from what we report for 30-year rates because Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates. In contrast, our Investopedia 30-year average is a daily reading, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. In addition, the criteria for included loans (e.g., amount of down payment, credit score, inclusion of discount points) varies between Freddie Mac’s methodology and our own.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

After surging a third of a percentage point over three days to notch their priciest level since January, 30-year refi rates moved slightly lower Thursday. Giving up 2 basis points, the flagship refi average slid to a 7.24% average.

This year’s high water mark is 7.30%, registered in January. But in early March, the 30-year refinance average fell as low as 6.71%. In any case, today’s rates are more than a full percentage point above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.

Many other refi loan types also declined Thursday. The 15-year and 20-year refi averages subtracted 4 and 3 basis points, respectively, though the jumbo 30-year refi average added 2 points.

Tariffs are adding new price pressures to a housing market that was already pricing out many buyers.

President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies have rattled markets and are being felt across the economy. The housing market is no exception: Tariffs could have a variety of effects on buyers, sellers, builders, and mortgage brokers.

Housing market participants are bracing for increased costs as housing affordability remains under pressure due to limited supply and elevated mortgage rates. Import taxes on materials like wood, plastics, glass, and metals will raise housing construction and renovation costs. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty is driving interest rates even higher, making it harder for lenders to close deals.

Home Builders Face Higher Material Costs

Raw materials will likely become more expensive under Trump’s tariffs, especially if the tariffs he has proposed are implemented.

The White House has been particularly interested in lumber as it studies which imports come into the U.S. The U.S. relies on lumber imports to meet about 30% of its domestic demand, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said.

Lumber is currently exempt from tariffs, but that could change, according to a new report from the Commerce Department. Canada is one of the major suppliers of lumber to the U.S., with about 80% of U.S. softwood lumber imports being sourced from the country. The report indicated that import taxes on lumber from the U.S.’s northern neighbor could more than double this year.

And lumber isn’t the only material under threat. Tariffs on Mexican products could also raise the prices of stone tiles. Meanwhile, granite and marble costs could rise due to tariffs in Europe. Trump has also floated industry-specific tariffs on copper and already implemented steel and aluminum tariffs.

Home Renovators Will Also Feel the Pinch of Tariffs

Home renovators are also likely to feel the pinch from tariffs. While less reliant on lumber than home builders, renovators are also facing costs for fixtures, appliances and plumbing.

Tariffs on China could be particularly problematic for home renovators, who import several key housing materials from the nation, including glass and cabinetry, said Eli Moyal, founder and COO of renovation project tracking service Chapter. 

“A lot of the materials that we use in projects, either the finished materials or the rough materials, are directly or indirectly from China. So that’s going to affect a significant part of the market,” he said.

Clients could see project price increases of between 10% and 15% from the tariffs, Moyal said, though not all of the increased costs are being passed on to consumers.

“Not everything is being put to the client, to the end of the funnel. The manufacturer takes some, the distributor takes some, the builder takes some, and then the client will see some increase in cost,” Moyal said. 

Mortgage Rates Have Already Fluctuated

For mortgage brokers, tariff challenges come in the form of fluctuating mortgage rates.

Treasury yields have soared this week as investors price in tariff policies. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which heavily influences mortgage interest rates, rose as high as 4.59% on Friday before retreating slightly. 

Mortgage rates generally follow the path of the 10-year Treasury yield and jumped to more than 7% late in the week, up from around 6.7% a week earlier.

Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of Nation One Mortgage Corporation’s southeast division, said the uncertainty in borrowing is making it difficult for home buyers to finalize costs.

“If we’re trying to lock an interest rate within the last four business days, they could move by half a percent, three-quarters of a percent, for the same cost in a four-day span. That’s pretty significant,” Crescenzo said.

Tom Yeung here with today’s Smart Money. 

“BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday morning. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” 

It turned out it was. On Wednesday afternoon, the president announced a 90-day pause on all “reciprocal” tariffs on non-retaliating countries. American markets surged 9%, and Asian ones jumped even higher. 

Eric had anticipated possible meaningful reductions to the new tariff regime. That’s why, despite the market noise and headline headaches, he recently added a high-quality athletic apparel firm in his elite-trading service The Speculator that would benefit from the delay of tariffs.  

The company in question imports a large quantity of its products from Vietnam, and it had become priced like a coiled spring waiting to go off on any good news. Here’s what Eric wrote to his subscribers… 

The “Black Swan” tariff event is causing the selloff, not any fundamental flaw with the brand itself. 

Therefore, if the swan simply flies way, the share price could soar…. 

If that change occurs, the new U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports could disappear entirely as well. I think that’s a bet worth taking. No one wants this trade war, especially not the Asian countries that produce so much of the clothing we buy here in the U.S. 

He’s been proved right so far. Shares of this firm surged double digits on Wednesday as the bulk of tariffs on Vietnam (and just about every other country besides China) were postponed. Only 10% tariffs have gone into effect. 

But I know many of you are still worried about what can go wrong.  

So, in today’s Smart Money, we’ll take a quick look at what could happen in the worst-possible outcome.  

Then, I’ll share the three ways that the smart money is approaching this new normal… a “will-he-won’t-he” market, where tariffs still might be around the corner.  

After all, Eric’s bet on that high-end apparel maker isn’t the only investment he’s recommended in recent days. 

Let’s take a look… 

Imagining the Unimaginable 

Many financial disasters have been attributed to a “failure of imagination” of things that could go wrong.  

The 1997 Asian financial crisis was triggered when Thailand devalued its currency relative to the U.S. dollar. That single act caused a cascade of events that led to a stunning 83% decline in nearby Indonesia’s gross national product and the resignation of two world leaders. The Bank of Thailand certainly did not foresee that outcome. 

Closer to home, the 2008 global financial crisis was caused by a similar lack of imagination. In this case, American banks and insurers failed to anticipate how mortgage-backed securities could become worthless if a real estate slowdown triggered thousands of defaults all at once. 

The savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and ’90s… the dot-com bubble burst in 2000… the Covid-19 pandemic… history is full of unexpected crises that only needed a little bit of imagination to predict. 

Today, we’re faced with a new potential meltdown. Trump’s “will-he-won’t-he” game of tariffs are triggering immense amounts of fear and uncertainty in financial markets. There’s also no guarantee that his 90-day pause on tariffs will remain in effect. 

Bond markets remain wary. Over the past several days, 10-year government bonds have jumped from 3.8% to 4.5%, even though the opposite should have happened. (Usually, falling stock prices should cause yields to fall as well.)  

This is an ominous sign. The last time the Treasury market gapped up this way was during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

We’re also seeing some massive unwinding of leveraged bets – often a sign of an impending financial crisis. Over the past several days, according to the Financial Times, hedge funds have been forced to close out “mega-leveraged Treasury arbitrage trades, like it did in March 2020.” 

“The most violent move in the last six weeks has been that swap-spread trade coming to a violent conclusion,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle, in an interview with Bloomberg News. “This tells us that banks are now looking to raise and looking to preserve cash.” 

That means the experts are still worried about what comes next. President Trump has proved he’s willing to take the stock market to the brink of a bear market, and if high tariffs ultimately do come in, we could see a sudden surge of inflation… and perhaps even stagflation. 

The smart money is cutting back their riskiest bets because they’re now imagining a possible outcome where this brinkmanship creates this disastrous outcome. 

So, how is Eric preparing his paid-up subscribers for this future crisis that might not happen? After all, we know that panic selling often happens right at the bottom of the market. 

We’re approaching this in three ways… 

Taking the Show on the Road 

Eric’s tariff-surviving strategy is best shown in his Fry’s Investment Report portfolio.  

1. Blue Chip Companies.  

The first is to invest in blue-chip companies with limited downside and significant upside. Here, companies like Corning Inc. (GLW) stand out, which Eric recommends in Fry’s Investment Report. This upstate New York company has been innovating since its founding in 1851, and brought us products like Pyrex glassware for the kitchen and Gorilla Glass for smartphones.  

Corning is now riding a new once-in-a-generation wave of demand for fiber-optic cable for AI-focused data centers, and it recently announced plans to build the only solar panels made with wafers and cells made in the U.S. Although the company fell after “Liberation Day” last week, it ended Wednesday 10% higher.  

2. Oversold Stocks.  

The second is buying oversold companies that were caught up in the tariff panic. One very recent addition to Fry’s Investment Report was selling at 16 times forward earnings when he bought it last week… well below its 31X historical average.  

Even after its double-digit gain on Wednesday, shares till have plenty of upside just to get back to “average” valuations. Every sports better will know that a bet with a 1-in-2 chance of a 30% loss and a 1-in-2 chance of a 100% gain is a wager you should make every time. 

3. Tariff Winners.  

Finally, we’re looking at stocks beyond America that are less affected by Trump’s “will-he-won’t-he” policies.  

Earlier this year, Eric established two new positions in countries seeing a turnaround in fortunes. These two nations only export 1% to 3% of their GDP to the U.S. and have fundamental factors that could help them “zig” even as American markets “zag.” 

Then on Monday, Eric introduced a new company in Fry’s Investment Report that falls into this third camp. The firm, which produces 100% of its products in Canada, is seeing a revival thanks to the “Buy Canada” movement. The 90-day pause on global tariffs won’t change the way Canadians see U.S. goods overnight. 

As a bonus, this firm is also protected from potential future tariffs, because its products are covered by the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that President Trump signed during his first term. So, even if tariffs on Vietnam and other countries are put in place after this 90-day pause, this Canadian firm should be able to keep exporting its goods to the U.S. tax-free. 

Now, I’d like to tell you more about this “heads-I-win, tails-I-don’t-lose” company. But to do that, you’ll have to subscribe to Fry’s Investment Report.  

You can do that here. 

In the meantime, we remain optimistic that U.S. stock market will pull through the recent crisis as it always does. But with bond traders beginning to imagine the worst-case outcomes, a little bit of strategic buying will go a long way in protecting your portfolio from the next inevitable reversal. 

Regards, 

Thomas Yeung 

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace 

P.S. Amidst the current market chaos, a massive sea of change is going on in the investing world right now… 

For a while now, Wall Street has experimented with using AI to help target the most lucrative investments on the market. But, in the past few years, they’ve gone “all in.” Now, they’re spending millions to develop this technology. 

So, how can you compete in this more technologically driven future we’ve entered? Our partners over at TradeSmith tracked down an incredible solution for you. 

And on Wednesday, April 16 at 8 p.m. Eastern, they’re going over the full details behind a remarkable new system called An-E. This AI-powered algorithm projects the share price on thousands of stocks, funds, and ETFs one month into the future. 

Click here to sign up for the AI Predictive Power Event now. 

Smartphones, computers, and semiconductors have been exempted from President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, according to updated guidance from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

According to reports, Trump had hinted at exemptions on Air Force One on Friday night, telling reporters that “there could be a couple of exceptions for obvious reasons, but I would say 10% is a floor” for tariffs.

The White House did not immediately respond to an Investopedia request for comment.

Apple and Other Device Makers Stand to Benefit From Exemptions

The news would benefit Apple (AAPL), which manufactures many of its iPhones and other electronics in China, as well as other device makers.

Trump’s executive actions call for 145% tariffs on imported goods from China, which has engaged in an escalating tit-for-tat with the U.S. Apple, whose shares are yet to fully recover from the hit taken since President Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, did not immediately return a request for comment.

Turn on the TV or scroll on social media, and you’ll find every self-proclaimed market sage, financial influencer, and Wall Street whisperer shouting their take on stocks into the void. 

The ‘experts’ have emerged from their bunkers. But it seems none of them can agree on what’s to come.

Some say to buy the dip. Others advise to stay far away. And many still warn: This is 2008 all over again.

So… which is it? Historic buying opportunity, or just the first leg of a much larger collapse?

We’ll venture to answer that – not with opinion and theory but with data.

And to us, the data is screaming one thing: If you’ve got time on your side, you should be buying stocks hand over fist right now. 

Though, of course, we’ll let you decide for yourself.

Here’s what we’re seeing…

A Fast-and-Furious Decline in Stocks

This recent market madness began when President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced on Wednesday, April 2. Investors didn’t take the plan lightly.

That Thursday, April 3, the S&P 500 dropped more than 5%. Then on Friday, it slid another 5%-plus.

That’s a 10% two-day crash – a move that’s not just rare but nearly unprecedented.

Since 1950, this kind of price action has occurred just five times:

• Twice during Black Monday (1987)
• Twice during the great financial crisis (2008–09)
• Once during March 2020’s COVID Crash 

Now, here’s the important part: All five times, the S&P was higher one year later. The average 12-month return? 33%. Even with the worst-case outcome, stocks were up 18% by that time the next year.

But, of course, the selling didn’t stop in the two days after the “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. 

This past Monday added more pain. The three-day total decline reached 11%, marking the 11th-largest three-day drop since 1950.

On Tuesday, April 8, we slid even further, bringing the four-day collapse to 12.1% – the 12th-worst four-day stretch in modern market history.

And guess what?

Every other time the market has fallen more than 10% in three days or more than 12% in four days, it was higher a year later.

And sometimes, stocks moved way higher. After similar four-day collapses, the market’s average return over the next 12 months is nearly 70%.

Then came the snapback rally.

Bullish Historical Signals

On Wednesday, April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on all country-specific reciprocal tariffs (except China). It was the first signal that the administration might pivot from trade war escalation to negotiation.

And the market’s response was explosive. The S&P 500 surged 9.5%, marking one of the biggest one-day gains of all time.

Since 1950, the S&P has only rallied more than 5% in a single day 23 times. In 21 of those instances (91% of the time), the market was higher a year later, with an average return of 27%.

So far, that fits the pattern: Big selloff. Big rally. Big opportunity.

Now, we’ll admit; Thursday was rough. Stocks gave up a large portion of the 9%-plus gains they notched on Wednesday.

Indeed, the S&P dropped 3.5%, leading some to cry “dead cat bounce.”

But historically? Even that’s bullish.

Since 1950, every single time the S&P 500 rallied more than 5% in one day, and then dropped more than 2% the next day, the market was higher a year later, with average 12-month gains north of 37%.

In other words, even the rejection of a bounce has been a bullish historical signal.

Updated on April 10th, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Pine Cliff Energy (PIFYF) has a rather unique, appealing investment characteristic: it pays dividends monthly instead of quarterly. There are only 76 such stocks today, a list of which you can find below.

Related: List of monthly dividend stocks

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

Pine Cliff Energy’s combination of a high dividend yield and a monthly dividend makes it appealing to individual investors.

But there’s more to the company than just these factors. Keep reading this article to learn more about Pine Cliff Energy.

Business Overview

Pine Cliff Energy acquires, explores, develops, and produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

The company primarily holds interests in oil and gas properties in the Southern Alberta, Southern Saskatchewan, and Edson areas, as well as in the Viking and Ghost Pine areas of Central Alberta. It was formed in 2004 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Pine Cliff Energy produces oil and gas at a ratio of 21/79, so it should be considered primarily a natural gas producer. As a gas producer, Pine Cliff Energy is highly cyclical due to the dramatic swings in the price of natural gas. Notably, the company has reported losses in seven of the last ten years and initiated a dividend only in 2022.

On the other hand, Pine Cliff Energy claims to have some advantages over well-known oil and gas producers.

First, the company claims that it has a decent balance sheet (more on this later), which is paramount in the oil and gas industry, which is characterized by fierce downturns every few years.

Source: Investor Presentation

In addition, Pine Cliff Energy’s management team owns 14% of the company; hence, it is aligned with the shareholders. This is an essential characteristic that investors should not undermine.

Moreover, Pine Cliff Energy has the lowest natural production decline rate among all Canadian public producers. This reduces the capital expenses required to sustain a given level of production.

Like almost all oil and gas producers, Pine Cliff Energy incurred losses in 2020 due to the collapse of oil and gas prices caused by the coronavirus crisis.

However, thanks to the massive distribution of vaccines worldwide, global demand for oil and gas recovered in 2021, and thus, the company became profitable in that year.

Even better for Pine Cliff Energy, the Ukrainian crisis triggered a rally in oil and gas prices to 13-year highs in 2022. As a result, the company posted 10-year high earnings per share of $0.22 in that year. It also initiated a dividend in June 2022, after more than a decade without one.

However, the price of natural gas has slumped since early last year due to abnormally warm winter weather for two consecutive years. This has resulted in exceptionally high gas inventories in North America.

Pine Cliff Energy ended 2024 with a stronger Q4 performance due to higher AECO natural gas prices. Adjusted funds flow reached $8.6 million for the quarter and $38 million for the year, though both were down from 2023. Annual production averaged 23,248 Boe/d, up 13% year-over-year. The company spent $8.9 million in capital, earned $10.5 million from asset sales, and paid $25.6 million in dividends—all while keeping its payout ratio below 100%, supported by a successful hedging program.

Despite not drilling in 2024, Pine Cliff grew its reserves. A 2023 acquisition boosted low-decline production and drilling inventory, helping 2P reserves rise 5.6%. Technical revisions and land swaps added new two-mile drilling locations and early potential in the Basal Quartz oil play. Pine Cliff now holds 18.4 net two-mile locations and controls key gas infrastructure to support future growth.

The company plans to resume drilling in late 2025, depending on commodity prices. It announced a 25-year natural gas supply deal for a new Alberta data center, diversifying markets without added transport or hedge costs. Hedging and pipeline strategies remain key to protecting cash flow and supporting shareholder returns.

Growth Prospects

As mentioned above, Pine Cliff Energy has the lowest natural production decline rate among all Canadian public producers.

Source: Investor Presentation

The natural decline of the producing wells is paramount in the oil and gas industry, as high decline rates result in excessive capital expenses required to sustain a given level of production. Thus, Pine Cliff Energy has a significant competitive advantage over its peers.

On the other hand, as an oil and gas producer, Pine Cliff Energy is highly sensitive to the inevitable cycles of oil and gas prices. More precisely, as the company produces 79% gas and 21% oil, it is especially sensitive to the cycles of natural gas prices.

Thanks to the rally in oil and gas prices to 13-year highs in 2022, Pine Cliff Energy posted 10-year high earnings per share in 2022. However, both prices have plunged from their highs in 2022. As a result, the company is likely to post much lower earnings per share this year.

Given the highly cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry and our expectations for slightly higher gas prices in the upcoming years, we expect Pine Cliff Energy’s earnings per share to grow by about 5.0% per year on average over the next five years, from $0.07 in 2025 to $0.08 in 2026.

Dividend & Valuation Analysis

Pine Cliff Energy is currently offering a decent dividend yield of 2.5%. It is thus not a pure play for income-oriented investors, and those investors should be aware that the dividend is far from safe due to the dramatic cycles of oil and gas prices.

Pine Cliff Energy’s forward payout ratio is 30%, which is low, particularly for the energy sector.

Overall, the balance sheet has weakened in recent quarters, and thus, the company will be vulnerable whenever the next downturn in the energy sector occurs.

Moreover, it is critical to note that Pine Cliff Energy initiated a dividend only in 2022, amid multi-year high commodity prices. It failed to offer a dividend in the preceding years, as it incurred material losses in most of those years. Therefore, it is evident that the company’s dividend is far from safe.

About valuation, Pine Cliff Energy is currently trading for 5.8 times its expected earnings per share this year. Given the company’s high cyclicality, we assume a fair price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 for the stock.

Therefore, the current earnings multiple is much lower than our assumed fair price-to-earnings ratio. If the stock trades at its fair valuation level in five years, it will incur a 7.3% annualized tailwind in its returns.

Taking into account the 5.0% annual growth of earnings per share, the 2.5% current dividend yield, and a 7.3% annualized tailwind of valuation level, Pine Cliff Energy could offer a ~15% average annual total return over the next five years.

This is a very high expected return. The stock is highly risky right now, and hence, investors should wait for the next downturn in the energy sector before evaluating it again despite strong projected returns.

Final Thoughts

Pine Cliff Energy offers a dividend yield of just 2.5%, which is just over the S&P 500’s 1.5% dividend yield. As a result, the stock isn’t particularly enticing for income investors.

However, the company has a weakening balance sheet. In addition, it has proved highly vulnerable to the cycles of oil and gas prices.

As these prices seem to have peaked in this cycle, the stock is highly risky right now. Therefore, investors should wait for a much lower entry point.

Moreover, Pine Cliff Energy is characterized by extremely low trading volume. This means that it is hard to establish or sell a large position in this stock.

Additional Reading

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

The End of a Wild Market Week and How to Stay Focused

The reciprocal tariffs are on … or not … or maybe just a little … except for China, and those are still big … but they could still come back for everyone else … maybe.

It’s no wonder the markets felt like a roller coaster this week.

In the chart below, you can see how the market reacted after the tariff news on April 2.

Last Sunday, President Trump said he wasn’t concerned about the stock market.

“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

But after declaring a 90-day pause on the tariffs, the stock market shot up and Trump was happily talking about, “the biggest day in financial history.”

But we haven’t recovered all the losses … at least, not yet.

So, after enduring one of the wildest weeks on Wall Street ever, what are we to do now?

InvestorPlace’s global macro analyst Eric Fry shared plenty of good advice this week alongside of his accurate forecast of the tariff “pause.”

Let’s look at Eric’s advice. Plus, I’ll give you one of his Investment Report picks that’s thriving despite the market whipsaws.

A Macro View of the Markets

For newer Digest readers, Eric takes a “macro” view of the markets.

Most of Wall Street focuses on “micro” analysis – price/earnings ratios, income statements and other company details.

Eric looks for the big-picture trends that drive huge, multi-year moves in entire sectors of the market. Then he narrows his focus to find the stocks that will be the biggest winners in these megatrends.

Using this method, Eric has clocked more than 40 10X stock winners.

That may not sound so incredible … but let me put this in context …

Investing experts are lucky to make one 1,000% call in their career. It’s rare to have more than one, but it does occasionally happen.

But 40?

That’s not just above the rest; that’s in the stratosphere.

When I spoke to Eric on Monday, he said unequivocally that the administration’s method to roll out the tariffs was unworkable.

And he made a prediction…

My bullish scenario is that this proposed tariff policy is so bad that it’s good. I think obviously there’s been severe trade imbalances for a long time that we need to correct as a nation. I personally don’t believe this particular policy is the best way to achieve that, and it is so ill-conceived and potentially devastating that I don’t think it’ll last long.

I think the Trump administration will probably start to score some victories country by country, and I’m hoping enough mini victories that it would be able to claim a victory over the entire thing and abandon this sweeping global tax that it has imposed on 185 countries.

And if that happens, I think the markets reverse. I’m optimistic because I doubt that this particular iteration of the tariff policy will remain in effect for very long.

I spoke to Eric again on Wednesday, just an hour after the announcement that the tariff plan was being pulled back … and the markets had already started to rally. Here’s part of that conversation.

The markets are rallying as we speak pretty significantly, and so the trade war is not over, but it’s certainly taken a new twist.

And I would point out that this particular move by Trump mirrors almost exactly what billionaire Bill Ackman had been advocating for the last two days. Bill Ackman is a billionaire hedge fund manager in New York, a major contributor to the Republican Party, a major supporter of Donald Trump.

He was not alone. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan had said similar things in the last 48 hours, as had other prominent Trump supporters on Wall Street.

So, I think it’s likely that the president saw prominent members of the Republican Party and major donors to the Republican Party breaking ranks with him on this particular policy. I think that’s the biggest reason why he made this announcement today.

Even as the markets were soaring on Wednesday, Eric was quick to note that there were probably bumps in the road ahead … which we saw immediately on Thursday when the market fell again.

Here was his advice to investors feeling whipsawed by the market action.

When stocks are falling, you always own too much of them. And when they’re going up, you don’t own enough of them. That’s just kind of the nature of the beast.

But you have to continue to look ahead and not be buffeted too badly by the headlines, by the noise, and just continue to as coolly as you can. Assess the opportunities that are in front of you, and then pull the trigger if it’s appropriate.

So, I think that is a practice that runs through all markets: bull markets, bear markets. And in this particular case, I think the same thing.

One Stock to Consider Today

The philosophy that has served Eric so well is reflected in his most recent picks. In his Investment Report service, Eric recently recommended luxury clothing maker Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS).

For readers less familiar with the brand, here’s Eric:

Canada Goose is a global performance luxury and lifestyle brand founded in 1957. Like Patagonia and North Face, Canada Goose manufactures and sells a range of outdoor sportswear like parkas, puffers, rain jackets, and hoodies – both for genuine outdoor adventurers and for urban chic wannabes.

Now, the obvious question is “what about the trade war? Won’t that hurt Goose’s profits?

Eric writes that while “buying Canada” in the U.S. has become more expensive in most cases, Canada Goose exports its goods to the U.S. duty-free. Under the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) President Trump signed during his first term, the U.S. levies no tariffs on apparel and textile exports from Canada to the U.S.

Of course, that doesn’t mean GOOS is in for a smooth ride higher. Expect volatility, which is what GOOS has experienced in April as you can see below.

But whatever the short-term ups and downs might be, Eric urges investors to reorient their focus:

I have no idea where the stock market is heading next, nor do I know how long or how deep the current selloff will go. But I do know that buying great companies at good prices is the key to building wealth over the long term, which is why I will continue to make select “Buy” recommendations throughout this downturn.

It’s a good bet volatility in general is going to continue, and when it does, you’re best served by ignoring the noise, and continue to coolly assess the opportunities in front of you and act when it’s appropriate.

Click here to learn more about Eric’s Investment Report picks.

Enjoy your weekend,

Luis Hernandez

Editor in Chief, InvestorPlace

Published on April 10th, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Paramount Resources (PRMRF) has two appealing investment characteristics:

#1: It is offering an above average dividend yield of 3.8%, which is more than twice the dividend yield of the S&P 500.
#2: It pays dividends monthly instead of quarterly.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

The combination of an above-average dividend yield and a monthly dividend renders Paramount Resources appealing to individual investors.

But there’s more to the company than just these factors. Keep reading this article to learn more about Paramount Resources.

Business Overview

Paramount Resources explores for and produces oil and natural gas from conventional and unconventional fields in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

The company holds interests in the Karr and Wapiti Montney properties, which cover an area of 185,000 net acres south of Grande Prairie, Alberta. It was founded in 1976 and is based in Calgary, Canada.

Paramount Resources has an average production rate of about 100,000 barrels per day and total proved reserves of 415 million barrels of oil equivalent, with oil and gas at a 49/51 ratio.

Source: Investor Presentation

It is also important to note that 46% of the company is owned by insiders. This is a remarkably high percentage of ownership, which results in the alignment of interests between insiders and the other individual shareholders.

As an oil and gas producer, Paramount Resources is highly cyclical due to the dramatic swings in oil and gas prices. The company has reported losses in five of the last ten years and resumed its dividend payments only in the summer of 2021, after 22 years without a dividend payment.

On the other hand, Paramount Resources has some advantages over well-known oil and gas producers. Most oil and gas producers have been struggling to replenish their reserves due to the natural decline of their producing wells.

Paramount Resources reported strong 2024 results, with a record production of 98,490 Boe/d and $815 million in cash from operations. The company sold its Karr, Wapiti, and Zama assets to Ovintiv for $3.3 billion and issued a $15.00 per share special distribution. It also repurchased 5.7 million shares for $177 million and focused capital spending on Duvernay developments, drilling 58 wells and advancing the Alhambra Plant.

At year-end, Paramount held $188 million in net debt and $564 million in investment securities. Since 2021, it has returned $2.97 billion to shareholders and maintains strong liquidity with $830 million in cash and investments, plus a $500 million undrawn credit facility. Fox Drilling continues operating six rigs, supporting internal and third-party projects.

Excluding sold assets, reserves totaled 242.5 MMBoe (50% liquids) with an NPV10 of $2.46 billion. For 2025, Paramount plans $760–$790 million in capital spending, targeting 37,500–42,500 Boe/d average production. Volumes rebounded in Q4 as the Alhambra Plant came online.

Growth Prospects

The company has ample room for production growth thanks to accelerating its development efforts in its producing areas.

Source: Investor Presentation

Paramount Resources has a proven record of identifying key resource areas with a low decline rate and more than 15 years of production.

On the other hand, as an oil and gas producer, Paramount Resources is highly sensitive to oil and gas price cycles. This is clearly reflected in the company’s performance record, which has posted material losses in five of the last ten years.

The price of oil has slumped significantly from its peak in 2022. As a result, the company is likely to post much lower earnings per share this year.

Given Paramount Resources’ promising production growth prospects and the highly cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, we expect Paramount Resources’ earnings per share to grow by about 1.0% per year on average over the next five years, from an estimate of $0.89 this year to $1.73 in 2027.

Dividend & Valuation Analysis

Paramount Resources is currently offering an above-average dividend yield of 3.8% , which is more than double the 1.5% yield of the S&P 500. The stock is thus an interesting candidate for income-oriented investors, but they should be aware that the dividend is far from safe due to the dramatic cycles of oil and gas prices. Paramount Resources has a decent payout ratio of 55%.

However, it is critical to note that Paramount Resources reinstated its dividend only in mid-2021, after 22 years without a dividend payment.

The company failed to offer a dividend in the preceding years, as it incurred material losses in many of those years. Therefore, the company’s dividend is far from safe.

Regarding valuation, Paramount Resources is currently trading for 8 times its expected earnings per share of $0.89 this year.

Given the company’s high cyclicality, we assume a fair price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5, which is a typical mid-cycle valuation level for oil and gas producers.

Considering the 1.0% annual growth of earnings per share, the 3.8% current dividend yield, and a 6% annualized tailwind of valuation level, Paramount Resources could offer a ~10% average annual total return over the next five years.

The expected return signals that the stock will be attractive in the long term, as we have passed the peak of the oil and gas industry’s cycle. Therefore, investors should wait for a lower entry point.

Final Thoughts

Thanks to the above-average oil and gas prices, Paramount Resources has thrived since early 2022. The stock offers an above-average dividend yield of 3.8% and a payout ratio of 55%, which is likely to entice some income-oriented investors.

However, the company has proved highly vulnerable to oil and gas price cycles. As the price of oil has peaked and may have a material downside, the stock is risky right now.

Moreover, Paramount Resources has a below-average trading volume. This means that it may be difficult to establish or sell a large position in this stock.

Additional Reading

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

United Airlines (UAL) shares stabilized Friday after several days of turbulent price swings as investors asses what impact economic uncertainty will have on the airline’s outlook.

United’s stock, which soared 26% during Wednesday’s tariff-pause relief rally before paring a little more than half of those gains yesterday, may see further near-term volatility as market watchers brace for the company’s earnings due after next Tuesday’s closing bell.

Investors will likely focus on the airline’s commentary regarding its full-year outlook and watch to see if it follows Delta (DAL), which reported better-than-expected earnings this week, in reducing capacity to manage softer demand.

United shares have lost about a third of their value since the start of the year amid concerns that a tariff-induced economic slowdown could stall leisure and business travel demand. United shares were up slightly at just under $63 in early-afternoon trading Friday.

Below, we take a closer look at United’s chart and use technical analysis to point out major price levels worth watching.

Descending Broadening Formation in Focus

United shares have trended lower within a descending broadening formation since mid-February. More recently, the price ran into selling pressure near the pattern’s upper trendline and 200-day moving average during Wednesday’s rally that saw the stock register its highest daily volume since October last year.

Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) has recovered above oversold levels but remains below the indicator’s neutral 50 reading.

Let’s identify several major support and resistance levels on United’s chart.

Major Support Levels to Monitor

Descending prices could see the shares initially fall to around $56. Investors may look for buying opportunities on a retracement to this week’s lows, which closely align with several prominent peaks on the chart extending back to June 2023. 

The next lower level to watch sits at $48. This area may provide support near notable peaks on the chart in April and July last year, and depending on the timing of such a move, gain further confluence from the descending broadening formation’s lower trendline.

Crucial Resistance Levels to Watch

Further buying from current levels could see the shares take flight to around $81. Investors who have accumulated the stock at lower prices may look for exit points in this region near last month’s swing high and the upper level of a brief consolidation period that preceded November’s post-election breakaway gap.

Finally, buying above this level sets the stage for a retest of overhead resistance around $91. United shares may encounter selling pressure in this location near last December’s pullback low and a minor countertrend high that emerged on the chart in early March.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.