USD rebounds from three-year lows after better jobs numbers – United States

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

USD rebounds from three-year lows

The greenback climbed from key support at the three-year lows after a better-than-expected result from the US labour market boosted sentiment.

The job openings and labour turnover series (JOLTS) saw an increase in job openings from 7.20m in March to 7.39m in April.

The result continues to show that while some US data is weakening, employment data has remained resilient – this is key ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

The Aussie and kiwi both reversed from recent highs.

The AUD/USD fell 0.5% while NZD/USD lost 0.6%. The USD/SGD gained 0.4%.

Aussie lower as RBA minutes shows 50bps cut considered

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting minutes, released yesterday, revealed the board’s preference for a cautious 25 basis point rate cut over a larger 50bps cut.

Despite domestic conditions supporting cuts, policymakers remained concerned about inflation not sustainably reaching targets and persistent labor market tightness.

They noted no clear evidence of global trade risks significantly impacting the economy.

The RBA emphasized its commitment to measured, predictable policy while maintaining readiness to act if downside economic risks materialize.

The AUD/USD is currently near the top its six-month trading range.

Chinese yuan higher despite weaker data

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, significantly below expectations of 50.7 and April’s 50.4 reading, marking the lowest level since September 2022.

This contraction occurred despite recent US-China diplomatic progress in Geneva. The private sector survey contrasted with official data showing slight improvement to 49.5, though still contractionary.

Both supply and demand weakened substantially, with Caixin noting that unfavorable economic development factors remain widespread across China’s manufacturing sector.

The 21-day EMA of 7.2111 acts as key resistance level for USD/CNH to break next, followed by 50-day EMA of 7.2365.

Greenback higher, but CNY bucks trend

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 19 – 24 May

All times AEST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

USD rebounds from three-year lows

The greenback climbed from key support at the three-year lows after a better-than-expected result from the US labour market boosted sentiment.

The job openings and labour turnover series (JOLTS) saw an increase in job openings from 7.20m in March to 7.39m in April.

The result continues to show that while some US data is weakening, employment data has remained resilient – this is key ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

The Aussie and kiwi both reversed from recent highs.

The AUD/USD fell 0.5% while NZD/USD lost 0.6%. The USD/SGD gained 0.4%.

Aussie lower as RBA minutes shows 50bps cut considered

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting minutes, released yesterday, revealed the board’s preference for a cautious 25 basis point rate cut over a larger 50bps cut.

Despite domestic conditions supporting cuts, policymakers remained concerned about inflation not sustainably reaching targets and persistent labor market tightness.

They noted no clear evidence of global trade risks significantly impacting the economy.

The RBA emphasized its commitment to measured, predictable policy while maintaining readiness to act if downside economic risks materialize.

The AUD/USD is currently near the top its six-month trading range.

Chinese yuan higher despite weaker data

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, significantly below expectations of 50.7 and April’s 50.4 reading, marking the lowest level since September 2022.

This contraction occurred despite recent US-China diplomatic progress in Geneva. The private sector survey contrasted with official data showing slight improvement to 49.5, though still contractionary.

Both supply and demand weakened substantially, with Caixin noting that unfavorable economic development factors remain widespread across China’s manufacturing sector.

The 21-day EMA of 7.2111 acts as key resistance level for USD/CNH to break next, followed by 50-day EMA of 7.2365.

Greenback higher, but CNY bucks trend

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 19 – 24 May

All times AEST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.