Archives 2025

Best Day Trading Courses for April 2025



Best Overall

Investopedia chose Bear Bull Traders as the best overall day trading course due to its extensive offering of educational materials, including basic to advanced courses on day trading strategies and trading psychology. In addition, it has rich peer and mentor support, along with access to a sophisticated simulator and the DAS Trader Pro trading platform. 

Best For Learning While Trading

Bear Bull Traders is also best for students seeking to learn while trading. Even at the most basic membership level, the company offers day trading courses and access to its live chatroom. Higher membership levels will enjoy weekly mentorships, webinars, and personalized trading psychology coaching.  

Bear Bull Traders was founded by Andrew Aziz in 2015 and is based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Because of its vast educational content, and useful tools such as a trading simulator, the DAS Trader Pro, trade ideas, mentorship, and webinars, Bear Bull Traders is our choice as the best overall day trading course, and is also our choice for traders seeking to learn while they trade. 

However, with all that Bear Bull Trader offers, students may find the service a bit pricey. For instance, the Basic membership, designed for beginning traders, costs $99 monthly and only includes an onboarding session, access to day trading courses, and a chatroom. The Elite Monthly package, designed for experienced traders, costs $199 monthly and includes everything the basic package has, plus access to advanced courses, weekly mentorships, and webinars. 

The other option is the Elite Annual, which is designed for professional traders and is also claimed to be Bear Bull Traders’ most popular membership package. It costs $2,388 annually, and users can expect everything the Elite Monthly package possesses, plus personalized psychology coaching. Lastly, Bear Bull Traders has a special promotion for its highest-tier Platinum package, and, for a limited time, it costs $2,999, marked down from $6,900. In this package, customers will get 1 year of Platinum access, which includes three months of DAS simulator, three months of trading boot camp, and more. 

As stated before, Bear Bull Traders is expensive. Unfortunately, it does not offer a payment plan, but it does accept credit cards to help pay for its membership. Additionally, its customer service is a little light. While it offers a monitored customer chat service on its website, customers in need of additional help must submit a ticket. On the bright side, customers can try the service and get a 7-day trial for only $1. If you really like the service, there’s also an option to become a lifetime member, but it will set you back $4,000.



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Top CDs Today, April 17, 2025



Key Takeaways

  • The most you can earn with a nationwide 4-year CD dropped today from 4.40% to 4.28%. Lafayette Federal Credit Union is the new leader.
  • With a slight downtick yesterday, the top overall CD rate is 4.60%, available from T Bank for 6 months or Abound Credit Union for 10 months. Abound’s offer would guarantee your APY into 2026.
  • For a rate lock extending all the way to October 2026, XCEL Federal Credit Union’s 18-month certificate is paying 4.50% APY.
  • Want to secure your return even longer? The top rates for 2-year through 5-year certificates currently range from 4.28% to 4.32%.
  • The Fed is currently in “wait-and-see” mode regarding 2025 rate cuts. But given today’s uncertain economy, it can be smart to lock in one of today’s best CDs while you can.

Below you’ll find featured rates available from our partners, followed by details from our ranking of the best CDs available nationwide.

Rates of 4.50% to 4.60% You Can Guarantee as Long as 2026

The nation’s leading CD rate dropped from 4.65% to 4.60% yesterday, with four co-leaders. But today two of those top rates evaporated. Fortunately, you can still lock in a 4.60% return with either T Bank, for a 6-month term, or Abound Credit Union, for a 10-month duration, stretching your rate guarantee into early 2026.

A total of 18 CDs pay at least 4.50%, with the longest term among these being 18 months. That CD is available from XCEL Federal Credit Union and it will lock in a 4.50% rate until October of next year.

To view the top 15–20 nationwide rates in any term, click on the desired term length in the left column above.

All Federally Insured Institutions Are Equally Protected

Your deposits at any FDIC bank or NCUA credit union are federally insured, meaning you’re protected by the U.S. government in the unlikely case that the institution fails. Not only that, but the coverage is identical—deposits are insured up to $250,000 per person and per institution—no matter the size of the bank or credit union.

Consider Longer-Term CDs To Guarantee Your Rate Further Into the Future

For a rate lock you can enjoy into 2027, Lafayette Federal Credit Union is paying 4.28% APY for a full 24 months. Meanwhile, Genisys Credit Union leads the 3-year term, offering 4.32% for 30 months.

CD shoppers who want an even longer guarantee might like the leading 4-year or 5-year certificates. Though the 4-year rate dropped today from 4.40%, you can still lock in a 4.28% rate for 4 years from Lafayette Federal Credit Union. In fact, Lafayette promises the same 4.28% APY on all its certificates from 7 months through 5 years—letting you secure that rate as far as 2030.

Multiyear CDs are likely smart right now, given the possibility of Fed rate cuts in 2025 and perhaps 2026. The central bank has so far lowered the federal funds rate by a full percentage point, and this year could see additional cuts. While any interest-rate reductions from the Fed will push bank APYs lower, a CD rate you secure now will be yours to enjoy until it matures.

Today’s Best CDs Still Pay Historically High Returns

It’s true that CD rates are no longer at their peak. But despite the pullback, the best CDs still offer a stellar return. October 2023 saw the best CD rates push above 6%, while the leading rate is currently down to 4.60%. Compare that to early 2022, before the Federal Reserve embarked on its fast-and-furious rate-hike campaign. The most you could earn from the very best CDs in the country then ranged from just 0.50% to 1.70% APY, depending on the term.

Jumbo CDs Top Regular CDs in 4 Terms

Jumbo CDs require much larger deposits and sometimes pay premium rates—but not always. In fact, the best jumbo CD rates right now are equal to or lower than the best standard CD rates in half the terms we track.

Among 18-month CDs, both the top standard and top jumbo CDs pay the same rate of 4.50% APY. Meanwhile, institutions are offering higher jumbo rates in the following terms:

  • 2 years: Lafayette Federal Credit Union offers 4.33% for a 2-year jumbo CD vs. 4.28% for the highest standard rate.
  • 3 years: Hughes Federal Credit Union offers 4.34% for a 3-year jumbo CD vs. 4.32% for the highest standard rate.
  • 4 years: Lafayette Federal Credit Union offers 4.33% for a 4-year jumbo CD vs. 4.28% for the highest standard rate.
  • 5 years: Both GTE Financial and Lafayette Federal Credit Union offer 4.33% for jumbo 5-year CDs vs. 4.28% for the highest standard rate.

That makes it smart to always check both types of offerings when CD shopping. If your best rate option is a standard CD, simply open it with a jumbo-sized deposit.

*Indicates the highest APY offered in each term. To view our lists of the top-paying CDs across terms for bank, credit union, and jumbo certificates, click on the column headers above.

Where Are CD Rates Headed in 2025?

In December, the Federal Reserve announced a third rate cut to the federal funds rate in as many meetings, reducing it a full percentage point since September. But in January and March, the central bankers declined to make further cuts to the benchmark rate.

The Fed’s three 2024 rate cuts represented a pivot from the central bank’s historic 2022–2023 rate-hike campaign, in which the committee aggressively raised interest rates to combat decades-high inflation. At its 2023 peak, the federal funds rate climbed to its highest level since 2001—and remained there for nearly 14 months.

Fed rate moves are significant to savers, as reductions to the fed funds rate push down the rates banks and credit unions are willing to pay consumers for their deposits. Both CD rates and savings account rates reflect changes to the fed funds rate.

Time will tell what exactly will happen to the federal funds rate in 2025 and 2026—and tariff activity from the Trump administration has the potential to alter the Fed’s course. But with more Fed rate cuts possibly arriving this year, today’s CD rates could be the best you’ll see for some time—making now a smart time to lock in the best rate that suits your personal timeline.

Daily Rankings of the Best CDs and Savings Accounts

We update these rankings every business day to give you the best deposit rates available:

Important

Note that the “top rates” quoted here are the highest nationally available rates Investopedia has identified in its daily rate research on hundreds of banks and credit unions. This is much different than the national average, which includes all banks offering a CD with that term, including many large banks that pay a pittance in interest. Thus, the national averages are always quite low, while the top rates you can unearth by shopping around are often five, 10, or even 15 times higher.

How We Find the Best CD Rates

Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying certificates in every major term. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), the CD’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000, and any specified maximum deposit cannot be under $5,000.

Banks must be available in at least 40 states. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.



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5% APY on Your Savings? Yes, It’s Still Possible, With These 3 Online Accounts



Key Takeaways

  • Though the top savings account rates have drifted down from a two-decade high in 2024, you can still earn a 5.00% APY on your cash.
  • Three online accounts—one checking and two savings—offer that top rate if you can jump through a hoop or two.
  • The easiest option requires that direct deposits of at least $2,000 hit your account each month.
  • The other two accounts have stipulations such as a required second account at the bank, meeting a 10,000-steps-a-day goal, and earning the high APY only on a balance up to $5,000.
  • But don’t fret if these won’t work for you—you can still earn a stellar 4.60% with the top no-strings savings account.

The full article continues below these offers from our partners.

Earn 5% by Jumping Through Some Hoops—or 4.60% With No Strings Attached

Whether you’re socking away to an emergency fund or shifting some of your savings from investments to cash, especially given the market’s current tariff turmoil, you need to earn a competitive rate on the money in your bank accounts. Specifically, if you earn less than the inflation rate, your savings will become less valuable over time.

Fortunately, the rate you can earn with a high-yield savings account is currently very high, pushed up to 20-year record levels in 2024 by the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike campaign of 2022–2023. Today’s leading savings account rate is slightly down from those days, but it’s still possible to earn in the mid-4% to 5% range on your cash.

Where you fall in that range, however, depends on how willing you are to meet some special requirements. Right now, the three highest rates in our daily ranking of the best high-yield savings accounts require you to check off one or more special boxes. If you’re able and willing to do that, you can earn 5.00% APY on your balance.

If you don’t meet the requirements or don’t want to be bothered, you can still earn an excellent 4.60% APY from Pibank. With no monthly fees or minimum requirements for opening deposits or ongoing balances, Pibank offers the highest no-strings savings rate in the country.

For those interested in boosting to a 5% rate, here are your three options.

Option #1 – For Those Who Can Set Up Direct Deposit

Yes, this article is about your savings. But sometimes a checking account is so flexible that you can essentially use it like a savings account. That’s the case with mph.bank’s “Free Account” which pays a 5.00% annual percentage yield (APY) on balances up to a remarkable $50,000. The only requirement is that direct deposits totaling at least $2,000 hit your account every statement cycle (multiple deposits can be summed to reach the $2,000 threshold, as long as they occur within the same month).

This account charges no monthly fees, offers Zelle and mobile check deposit, and does not require a minimum opening deposit or ongoing balance requirements, making it a truly free account. While mph.bank is an online-only bank, it is owned and operated by the brick-and-mortar Liberty Savings Bank.

Important

Our roundup of the best high-interest checking accounts does include some options that pay more than mph’s 5.00%. However, all but one of them require you to make 12–15 debit purchases each month to earn their high rate, and the other only pays its high rate on up to a $10,000 balance. If you want to keep a larger balance but don’t want to use a debit card, mph.bank stands out.

Option #2 – For Those Who Are Physically Active Every Day

One of the more unique bank accounts in terms of requirements to earn bonus status is Fitness Bank. As its name implies, it focuses its perks on those who can meet healthy “step goals” every day. Right now, it’s paying a 5.00% APY on its Ultra Savings Account. Though it does not cap the balance on which you can earn 5.00%, it does have two specific requirements for earning that top rate:

  • You must have an accompanying Elite Checking Account at Fitness Bank and must keep your average daily balance in that account at or above $5,000.
  • You must have an average daily step count for the month of at least 10,000 steps (or 7, 500 steps if you’re age 65 or older).

You do not need to own a wearable device to qualify for this account, but you must be able to install Fitness Bank’s step tracker app on a smart phone. Fitness Bank is an online operation of Affinity Bank, a physical bank based in Covington, Georgia.

Option #3 – For Those Looking to Keep a Small Balance

If you don’t want to hold a large balance in savings, Varo Bank is another option. It, too, offers 5.00%, but only on balances up to $5,000. In addition, it requires you to have at least $1,000 in monthly direct deposits to earn that top rate.

If you simply need a place to receive your paycheck and don’t have a lot of extra savings, Varo’s 5.00% account could work for you. But if you can save more than $5,000, you’re likely better off with one of the 5.00% options above, or a slightly lower rate from a no-strings account in our ranking of the best nationwide savings accounts.

Daily Rankings of the Best CDs and Savings Accounts

We update these rankings every business day to give you the best deposit rates available:

Important

Note that the “top rates” quoted here are the highest nationally available rates Investopedia has identified in its daily rate research on hundreds of banks and credit unions. This is much different than the national average, which includes all banks offering a CD with that term, including many large banks that pay a pittance in interest. Thus, the national averages are always quite low, while the top rates you can unearth by shopping around are often 5, 10, or even 15 times higher.

How We Find the Best Savings and CD Rates

Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs and savings accounts to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying accounts. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), and the account’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000. It also cannot specify a maximum deposit amount that’s below $5,000.

Banks must be available in at least 40 states to qualify as nationally available. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.



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Trump’s Chip Ban Hits NVIDIA – Here’s Why It’s a Huge Buying Opportunity


Editor’s Note: As a reminder, the stock market will be closed tomorrow, April 18, in observance of the Good Friday holiday. The InvestorPlace offices and customer service departments will also be closed on Friday. I hope you enjoy the long holiday weekend!

********************

My home in Florida sits just a stone’s throw away from Mar-a-Lago – also known as the Winter White House.

Though I’m not a member, I’ve been fortunate enough to visit many times. Each time, President Trump has been a gracious host to my family, and we’ve created some wonderful memories.

And let me tell you, Mar-a-Lago can be quite the scene. One time, I watched South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham deeply involved in a conversation on the phone just a few feet away from me. Moments later, he was whisked away for dinner with the President himself.

That’s the kind of place Mar-a-Lago is. Big decisions happen. Deals get done.

So, it didn’t surprise me one bit when NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang attended a high-powered fundraising dinner there on Friday, April 11. Nor did it surprise me when, suddenly, big news about NVIDIA started to break in the days after.

In today’s Market 360, I’m going to cover the latest tariff news that’s impacting NVIDIA and why it caused a sharp drop in the stock. However, I believe this is an extreme overreaction, and I’ll explain why. Plus, I’ll discuss an even bigger piece of news that’s getting completely ignored. As you’ll find out, it’s part of a much bigger story involving the White House’s plans for reshaping the U.S. economy and taking the lead in the AI Revolution. And I’ve found the perfect way to profit…

President Trump Bans NVIDIA Chips in China

Yesterday, the Trump administration announced surprise export restrictions targeting NVIDIA’s semiconductor business. Specifically, these new rules ban NVIDIA’s sales of its H20 AI chips to China. NVIDIA disclosed in a regulatory filing that complying with these rules would cost the company an immediate $5.5 billion charge. Analysts have projected that the potential lost revenue could reach $10 billion over the coming quarters, mostly due to existing inventories of these specialized chips now becoming unsellable.

Investors didn’t take kindly to the news. NVIDIA shares dropped nearly 10% on Wednesday, and are now down roughly 25% so far this year.

However, this is a gross overreaction, folks. I want to point out that NVIDIA generated nearly $135 billion in revenue last year alone – $61 billion of that in just the past quarter. The China business? It’s a drop in the bucket.

Now, some analysts are wondering if banning these specific chips might inadvertently benefit Chinese competitors, like Huawei, rather than strategically hindering China’s AI ambitions. It’s a valid question, but that’s not the bigger story here.

NVIDIA Is Playing Trump’s Game

The bigger news broke just one day earlier: NVIDIA announced a massive $500 billion initiative to bolster U.S. AI infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. This includes plans to build two enormous supercomputer factories in Texas – the company’s first-ever supercomputer plants located entirely in the U.S. These new facilities will occupy over 1 million square feet of manufacturing space and are expected to start mass production within the next 12 to 15 months.

Additionally, NVIDIA will produce and test its cutting-edge Blackwell AI chips domestically at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSM) new plants in Arizona. Jensen Huang highlighted that moving production to the U.S. would help strengthen NVIDIA’s supply chain, boost resiliency and better position the company to meet the exploding global demand for AI-powered computing.

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that this announcement was made after Huang had dinner with the President. It’s the kind of move that fits perfectly with President Trump’s broader economic agenda.

The Bottom Line

I know the tariffs have caused a lot of pain in the market. I expect to see some more good news on tariffs soon. Just yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was optimistic about achieving clarity on tariffs and trade deals within the next 90 days. He said that outside of China, the White House was in “rapid motion” in setting up negotiations with 14 other major U.S. trading partners.

Remember, I have gone on record saying that the ultimate goal of Trump’s trade policies is to use tariffs and economic incentives to 1) bring other countries to the negotiating table for a better deal and 2) bring manufacturing jobs and advanced technology back to American shores.

If Trump and his team can pull this off, then the U.S. will be primed for significant long-term growth. Not only that, but it will be in the sole position to win the AI race against China.

Huang’s recent Mar-a-Lago meeting tells me that NVIDIA is on board. They’re ready to play ball.

So, don’t be rattled by short-term setbacks. Sure, losing sales in China hurts today, but NVIDIA’s vision is much bigger and longer term. Yours should be, too.

NVIDIA is positioning itself at the center of America’s AI-driven future. And the stock’s recent near-term weakness may be exactly the type of opportunity savvy investors dream about – a chance to buy into a monopolistic company at a temporary discount.

It’s why I think the stock is a screaming buy right now.

How to Profit From the Trump/AI Convergence

Now, it’s clear that President Trump and his team are rewriting the rulebook. And I want you to be prepared for when the full vision of Trump’s economic policies begins to take shape.

For example, one of the clearest beneficiaries of President Trump’s aggressive policies will be the explosive AI Super Boom.

When Trump’s policies converge with the AI Revolution, I predict that it will be one of the most powerful opportunities of our lifetime.

But, as we’ve witnessed from the past month, in order to profit, we’ll need to move fast. So, that’s why I’m inviting readers to “test drive” a powerful strategy I’ve used to quickly extract gains like…

  • 90.25% from Celestica, Inc. (CLS)
  • 95.13% from Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)
  • 114.49% from Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)
  • 187.28% from YPF Sociedad Anonomia (YPF)
  • 604% from Vista Oil & Gas (VIST)

This strategy is designed to repeatedly generate thousands of dollars in short-term cash payouts – all from regular stocks, no complicated trades required. And in the fast-changing market we are experiencing right now, it could prove crucial to your portfolio right now.

In fact, my system has flagged a handful of stocks with superior fundamentals and persistent institutional buying pressure that are primed to thrive in this new Trump/AI Convergence.

Click here to learn more now.

Sincerely,

An image of a cursive signature in black text.An image of a cursive signature in black text.

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

P.S. Last night, TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan unveiled a breakthrough AI market algorithm that can forecast stock prices 21 days into the future. And in today’s uncertain market, this is a great tool for you to have in your back pocket. In fact, this level of predictive power is crucial for navigating any choppy market. Click here to watch a replay of yesterday’s special presentation now.

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

Celestica, Inc. (CLS), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)



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Netflix Stock Climbs as Profits Exceed Expectations



Netflix (NFLX) reported first-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, sending shares higher in extended trading Thursday.

The streaming giant’s revenue grew over 12% year-over-year to $10.54 billion, above the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. Net income of $2.89 billion, or $6.61 per share, rose from $2.33 billion, or $5.28 per share, a year earlier, beating Wall Street’s projections. The period marked the first quarter Netflix did not report subscriber numbers.

Netflix shares rose about 3% in after-hours trading. They were up 9% for 2025 so far through Thursday’s close.

Netflix’s Gains Come as Subscription Prices Rise

The better-than-expected results came in part due to higher subscription and ad revenues, the company said, along with the timing of expenses.

Netflix had raised prices for its plans in January, hiking its ad-supported plan to $7.99 from $6.99 per month, the standard ad-free plan to $17.99 from $15.49 a month, and its premium plan to $24.99 from $22.99 a month.

Netflix maintained its fiscal 2025 revenue projection of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion. Analysts on average had expected $44.27 billion. The company’s second-quarter revenue forecast of $11.04 billion exceeded Wall Street’s estimate of $10.91 billion.

Co-CEO Greg Peters said Netflix expects to double its advertising revenue this year, as the company rolls out its ad tech suite. The suite is live in the U.S. and Canada, with 10 other markets expected in the months to come.

Earlier this week, Netflix executives reportedly said their goal is to double the company’s $39 billion in revenue last year by 2030 and reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion. The streamer’s market cap currently stands at about $416 billion.

Executives Tout Netflix’s Resilience Amid Economic Uncertainty

“We also take some comfort in the fact that entertainment historically has been pretty resilient in tougher economic times,” Peters said during the company’s earnings call Thursday.

“Netflix, specifically, also has been generally quite resilient and we haven’t seen any major impacts during those tougher times, albeit of course over a much shorter history,” he added.

The comments come after Morgan Stanley called the company a “top pick” last week to withstand the current tariff landscape.

UPDATE—April 17, 2025: This article has been updated since it was first published to include additional information and reflect more recent share price values.



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When Our $37 Trillion Time Bomb Will Explode


Trump lashes out at Powell … who’s behind bond market chaos … the eye-opening statistics on government debt … what is the real fear?

Editor’s Note: Our InvestorPlace offices are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

If you need assistance from our Customer Service team, they’ll be happy to assist you when we re-open Monday.

Have a wonderful Easter Weekend!

Jerome Powell, dead man walking?

Earlier today, President Trump took to Truth Social, posting:

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’

Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS.

Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now.

Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!

As we’ve detailed here in the Digest, Trump really wants lower interest rates.

Perhaps it’s due to the trillions of dollars’ worth of government debt that are rolling over in the next 18 months… maybe he wants to provide a tailwind to the economy… perhaps he wants to give the wobbly stock market a boost…

The problem is that even if Powell gives Trump the lower rates he wants, that doesn’t mean Trump’s desired outcomes will come to pass.

You see, the Federal Reserve only controls the federal funds rate – a short-term lending rate. The “Big Dog” that impacts mortgage rates, the economy, the stock market, and so on, is the 10-year Treasury yield. But for that, the market is the master puppeteer.

And according to legendary investor Louis Navellier, there’s one group within the market that’s in control today…

Meet the Bond Vigilantes

To make sure we’re all on the same page, Louis’ favorite economist Ed Yardeni popularized the term “Bond Vigilantes” in the 1980s.

It refers to bond investors who sell off Treasurys in response to what they perceive as irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies, like excessive government spending or inflationary policies. By dumping bonds, they drive up yields, effectively punishing governments with higher borrowing costs.

These investors act like “vigilantes” in the market, enforcing financial discipline when policymakers stray.

Now, April has brought an historic move in the 10-year Treasury yield from these Bond Vigilantes.

Last week, they stampeded out of the 10-year Treasury, causing its yield to soar from less than 4.00% to about 4.50% – the largest weekly gain in over a decade. You can see the bounce in the chart below.

Chart showing bond vigilantes stampeded out of the 10-year Treasury, causing its yield to soar from less than 4.00% to about 4.50% – the largest weekly gain in over a decade.

Source: StockCharts.com

Here’s Louis from yesterday’s Special Market Podcast in Growth Investor:

Last week’s events were stunning.

The main takeaway is the Bond Vigilantes are in charge – these big institutional Treasury investors.

The U.S. dollar is now down almost 10% for the year, and Treasury yields rose because apparently the Bond Vigilantes decided to sell some of our Treasuries…

That means President Trump isn’t in charge; the Bond Vigilantes are…

When the Bond Vigilantes started to avoid our Treasuries, President Trump had no choice but to respond and put a 90-day suspension on reciprocal tariffs.

So, what are the Bond Vigilantes worried about?

The better question is “what aren’t they worried about?”

There’s the U.S. budget deficit that grew to $1.83 trillion last year. That’s equivalent to 6.4% of U.S. economic output, marking the highest reading other than the COVID-19 pandemic.

So far in fiscal year 2025 (covering the first half of the fiscal year), the deficit has climbed to more than $1.3 trillion. This is the second-highest six-month deficit on record (second only to Covid).

Then there’s the overall national debt, which is ballooning – and accelerating. It’s now nearly $37 trillion, growing at more than $1 trillion about every 100 days.

The current debt-to-GDP ratio clocks in at 123%. Long term, this is unsustainable. It will result in either an economic or currency collapse.

Next up is the size of our government’s interest payments that are based on the size of our debt and today’s elevated interest rates.

Here’s the non-partisan thinktank Peter G. Peterson Foundation:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will total $952 billion in fiscal year 2025 and rise rapidly throughout the next decade…

Relative to the size of the economy, interest costs in 2026 would exceed the post-World War II high of 3.2 percent…

The federal government already spends more on interest than on budget areas such as:

  • Defense
  • Medicaid
  • Federal spending on children
  • Income security programs, which include programs targeted to lower-income Americans such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; earned income, child, and other tax credits
  • Veterans’ benefits

In fact, interest payments will exceed the amount that the federal government spends on Medicare (net of offsetting receipts) this year, leaving Social Security the only program larger than net interest.

Then we have President Trump’s tax plan.

To set the stage for why Bond Vigilantes have a problem with this, remember that governments only have two main means of funding their spending: taxes and debt (via issuing Treasurys).

If President Trump’s tax plans make it through Congress, tax revenues will fall.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the tax cuts would add $7.75 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade.

This would mean the government would have to rely more on debt issuance to meet all its spending obligations.

And this leaves debt (Treasurys) in the spotlight…which brings us full circle to the bond vigilantes who are punishing perceived economic bad behavior by driving Treasury yields higher.

The case for foreign bond vigilantes adding to the selling pressure

To be clear, monthly Treasury data comes with a lag. So, we don’t know exactly who sold bonds last week. But there are suspicions – and culprits aren’t limited to U.S. sellers.

The two biggest foreign holders of U.S. debt are China and Japan.

China clearly has a motivation for dumping our debt, and some analysts believe they’re holding the smoking gun.

Here’s CNBC:

“I think China is actually weaponizing the Treasury holding already,” said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro.

“They sell U.S. Treasurys and convert the proceeds into Euros or German bunds. That’s actually very consistent with what happened over the last couple of weeks,” he added. 

Germany’s bunds had bucked a wider sell-off in long-dated Treasurys last week, with its 10-year yields sliding.

Now, there’s pushback against this theory.

After all, if China sells U.S. bonds, it means capital flows back to China in the yuan, therein strengthening the yuan. This isn’t what China wants – Beijing is trying to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

As for Japan, last week, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Japan won’t use its accumulation of Treasurys as a bargaining chip against Trump:

We manage our U.S. Treasury holdings from the standpoint of preparing for in case we need to conduct exchange-rate intervention in the future.

But apparently, Japanese insurer Nippon Life owns a tremendous amount of Treasurys, and they could be behind the recent selling.

Here’s CNBC:

“It’s all very well for the Japanese government to say, we’re not going to sell U.S. Treasurys, but it’s not the Japanese government that owns them. It’s Nippon Life,” [BCA Research’s Garry Evans] added. 

If these insurers are worried about U.S. policy flip-flopping and want to reduce exposure, there’s “not a lot the government can do.”

Clearly, “bond vigilantes” don’t exist only in the U.S.

Now, regardless of who is behind the selloff, the bottom line remains: big players have been bailing on the 10-year.

What’s the worst case that these Bond Vigilantes fear?

Imagine your brother-in-law comes to you, lamenting that things are a little tight; he needs to borrow some cash.

You give him a loan, only to watch him go spend extravagantly, far beyond his income. It’s not long before he’s back at your door, requesting more money. You agree…he spends recklessly once again.

Now, say this pattern repeats another half a dozen times.

Eventually, what are you going to do?

Either 1) ask for a higher return on your loans, or 2) just stop lending.

While the Bond Vigilantes have been engaged in something like the “higher return” strategy, billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio is worried about the second possibility – people not wanting to lend our government money anymore.

From Fortune:

[Speaking at CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, Dalio said that] at some point, the U.S. will have to “sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy.”

This is an “imminent” scenario of “paramount importance,” Dalio said.

Fortune went on to quote Wharton Business School finance professor Joao Gomes:

The most important thing about debt for people to keep in mind is you need somebody to buy it.

We used to be able to count on China, Japanese investors, the Fed to [buy the debt]. All those players are slowly going away and are actually now selling.

If at some moment these folks that have so far been happy to buy government debt from major economies decide, “You know what, I’m not too sure if this is a good investment anymore. I’m going to ask for a higher interest rate to be persuaded to hold this,” then we could have a real accident on our hands.

Dalio went on to predict that when the world runs low on buyers for U.S. Treasurys, we’ll see “shocking developments in terms of how [debt] is going to be dealt with.”

What would that mean?

Dalio points toward restructurings of debt, pressure from Washington on countries to buy the debt, and even monetization of debt.

Though Dalio didn’t explicitly say this, a study of global economic history shows that monetization of debt risks hyperinflation.

So, what do you do?

First, despite Dalio’s reference to an “imminent” crisis, it’s unlikely that some sort of economic A-bomb is right around the corner.

While we respect Dalio’s analysis, he’s been preaching similar doom-and-gloom for years at this point. Eventually, he’ll be right, but if there’s one thing our government excels at, it’s sticking fingers in dikes and kicking cans down roads.

Second, focus on what you can control rather than fearing what’s beyond your control.

While understanding and recognizing these big-picture macro movements can help inform your market choices, they shouldn’t paralyze them.

Circling back to Louis, you’re better served focusing on what he calls the “iron law” of the stock market:

Stock price trends can diverge from earnings trends for a while, but over the long term, if a company grows and grows the amount of cash it takes in, its share price is sure to head higher.

This is why Louis remains bullish during this earnings season that just began. When you limit your buying to fundamentally superior stocks that have earnings power, earnings season usually brings welcomed gains.

For the latest fundamentally superior stocks that Louis likes, click here to learn about joining him at Growth Investor.

Meanwhile, don’t forget the power of AI to help you navigate today’s tricky market

Last night, Keith Kaplan, the CEO of our corporate partner TradeSmith, went live at this AI Predictive Power Event.

It was a fantastic evening with thousands of attendees learning about TradeSmith’s AI-powered algorithm “An-E” (short for Analytical Engine).

This AI-fueled technology forecasts the share price of thousands of stocks, funds, and ETFs one month into the future along with the conviction level of that prediction. It’s equally powerful in both bull and bear markets.

To watch a free replay of the event, including examples of back-tests, just click here. Keith even gives away five of An-E’s most bearish forecasts. These are stocks that the AI platform projects will drop hard in the coming weeks.

Coming full circle…

Last September, the Fed began cutting rates (as Trump wants).

Did it result in the 10-year Treasury yield falling?

Nope. As you can see below, the two yields diverged, and the 10-year surged…

Chart showing the 10 year Treasury yield and Fed Funds rate diverging in the wake of the September 2024 rate cut

Source: StockCharts.com

Bottom line: Trump can focus on Powell all he wants, but Louis is right…

The Bond Vigilantes are running the show.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Oxford Square Capital


Updated on April 17th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Investors seeking high yields may consider purchasing shares of Business Development Companies, also known as BDCs. These stocks frequently have a higher dividend yield than the broader stock market average.

Some BDCs even pay monthly dividends.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

Oxford Square Capital Corporation (OXSQ) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that pays a monthly dividend. Oxford Square is also a highly yielding stock, with a yield of nearly 17% based on expected dividends for fiscal 2025. This is 12 times the average yield of the S&P 500.

However, investors should always keep in mind that the sustainability of a dividend is just as important, if not more so, than the yield itself.

BDCs often provide high levels of income, but many (including Oxford Square) have trouble maintaining their dividends, particularly during recessions. This article will examine the company’s business, growth prospects, and evaluate the safety of the dividend.

Business Overview

Oxford Square Capital Corp. is a Business Development Company (BDC) specializing in financing early- and middle-stage businesses through loans and Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). You can see our full BDC list here.

The company holds a well-diversified portfolio of First–Lien, Second–Lien, and CLO equity assets spread across seven industries, with the highest exposure in business services and software, at 30.2% and 27.9%, respectively.

Source: Investor presentation

On February 28, 2025, Oxford Square announced its Q4 and 2024 results for the period ended December 31, 2024.

Source: Investor presentation

The company reported total investment income of $42.7 million for the year, a decrease of $9.1 million from the previous year. This decline was primarily due to a reduction in interest income from debt investments.

The weighted average yield on debt investments improved to 15.8% from 13.3% in the previous year. The cash distribution yield on cash income-producing CLO equity investments rose slightly to 16.2% from 15.3% on a sequential basis. The effective yield on CLO equity investments was 8.8%, down marginally from 9.6% in Q3 2024.

Total expenses were $16.2 million for the year, down significantly from $24.5 million in the prior year due to the absence of incentive fees.

As a result, net investment income (NII) totaled $26.4 million, or $0.42 per share, compared to $27.4 million, or $0.48 per share, in the previous year. The company’s net asset value (NAV) per share of $2.30 was down from $2.55 a year ago. Based on its current portfolio, Oxford Square projects to have a full-year 2025 investment income per share (IIS) of $0.42.

Growth Prospects

The company’s investment income per share had been declining at an alarming rate, as financing became cheaper, preventing Oxford Square from refinancing at its previously higher rates. Additionally, the company has historically over-distributed dividends to shareholders, thereby eroding its NAV and future income generation due to reduced asset holdings.

Considering that the Fed has not cut interest rates due to the current economic uncertainty, we expect Oxford Square to generate stable investment income per share in the near term.

The 2020 dividend cut should enable Oxford Square to retain some cash, hopefully allowing it to start regrowing its NAV. With rates unlikely to continue moving any lower for the moment, income generation should stabilize.

With investment across a wide breadth of different industries, Oxford Square has a reasonably balanced portfolio. The company’s top three industries do make up most of the portfolio, but they are in different areas of the economy. This provides some protection in the event of a downturn in one industry.

However, if rates decline over time, the company’s receivables could be further pressured, worsening its financial performance annually. Overall, we believe that the company’s future investment income generation carries substantial risks, while a potential recession and an adverse economic environment could severely damage its interest income.

Dividend Analysis

Oxford Square only recently began paying a monthly dividend, with the first being distributed in April 2019. Total dividends paid over the past few years are listed below:

  • 2015 dividends: $1.14
  • 2016 dividends: $1.16 (1.8% increase)
  • 2017 dividends: $0.80 (31% decline)
  • 2018 dividends: $0.80 (no increase)
  • 2019 dividends: $0.80 (no increase)
  • 2020 dividends: $0.6120 (23.5% decline)
  • 2021 dividends: $0.42 (31.4% decline)
  • 2022 dividends: $0.42 (Flat)
  • 2023 dividends: $0.54(28.5% increase)
  • 2024 dividends: $0.42 (22% decline)

Shareholders received a small increase in 2016, followed by three large dividend reductions since 2017. This inconsistency in dividend payout is due to the company’s volatile financial performance. Last year’s dividend total was negatively impacted by the absence of a $0.12 per share special dividend that occurred in 2023. The monthly payment has remained the same since the 2020 cut.

Oxford Square currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.035 per share, equaling an annualized payout of $0.42 per share.

Based on a full-year payout of $0.42 per share, Oxford Square stock yields 16.9%. Although the dividend cuts in recent years have been substantial, the dividend yield remains remarkably high. That said, investors should not focus solely on yield; dividend safety is a crucial consideration for income investors, and in this regard, Oxford Square leaves a lot to be desired.

Based on our expectation of a full-year investment income per share of $0.42 for 2025, the company is projected to maintain a 100% dividend payout ratio for 2025. However, if investment income declines from current levels, another dividend cut could result.

Final Thoughts

Oxford Square boasts a robust business model, characterized by diversification across various investment assets and industries. The company has also taken steps to build up its less risky asset position while decreasing its reliance on riskier CLOs.

That said, Sure Dividend recommends that risk-averse investors avoid Oxford Square. We believe that the dividend does not offer enough safety. The company distributes essentially all of its investment income, leaving little room for maneuver. Any decline in investment income could lead to further dividend cuts, making Oxford Square a less attractive investment option for investors seeking stable and secure sources of income.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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These 15 Funds Were the Worst Performing of the Past Decade—Is One in Your Portfolio?



The past decade has seen one of the strongest bull markets in history, with the S&P 500 index posting a 10-year return of 182.9% through February 2025. Yet a select club of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) no one wants to join managed to defy a broadly rising market and destroy billions in shareholder value.

The biggest losers include specialized funds that retail investors should mostly avoid, but some belong to categories that many assume to be quite stable. Below, we take you through the list and the fund companies behind them whose reputations have taken a hit.

  • Leveraged and inverse ETFs dominated the list of worst-performing funds, with 13 of the top 15 value destroyers being exchange-traded products that promised amplified returns.
  • Despite having positive total returns over the decade, ARK funds topped the list of value-destroying fund families with $13.4 billion in realized and unrealized capital losses, demonstrating how even popular funds can wreak havoc on your portfolio.

The Funds That Lost Billions for Shareholders

According to a March 2025 Morningstar report, 15 funds posted the worst performance over the last decade through a toxic combination of poor performance and poorly timed investor flows (people putting in money just as the market was heading in the wrong direction).

Posting the biggest losses was the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), a leveraged inverse ETF that aims to deliver negative three times the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100. When the Nasdaq 100 goes up, SQQQ goes down by three times as much, so it shouldn’t be surprising that in a decade that the total 10-year return, according to TradingView, for the Nasdaq-100 stood at 443.2% (for an average annual rate of 18.4%), SQQQ lost investors more than $10 billion.

Other leveraged index funds, like ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY), also suffered significant losses.

Thematic funds with concentrated bets also featured prominently in Morningstar’s study. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)—Cathie Wood’s flagship, actively managed ETF for “disruptive innovation”—and ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), which focuses on biotech, together lost more than $12 billion for investors. These funds attracted massive inflows after strong performance in 2020, only to produce steep declines afterward.

Geographic concentration added another layer of risk. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) took losses from country-specific political and economic problems.

Perhaps most surprising are the traditional fixed-income funds on the list. They include Templeton Global Bond (TGBAX) and Fidelity Series Long-Term Treasury Bond Index (FTLTX), demonstrating that even more mainstream bond investments can erase substantial value should interest rates shift dramatically.

Warning Signs for Investors

These red flags characterized the decade’s biggest value destroyers:

  • Leverage and inverse exposure: Funds with “Ultra,” “UltraPro,” “3X,” or “Bear” in their names are designed for sophisticated short-term traders, not long-term investors. These products reset daily and experience mathematical decay over time, making them unsuitable for buy-and-hold strategies.
  • Concentrated thematic bets: Funds focused on narrow sectors or themes might capture investor attention, but often come with high volatility that can burn investors chasing performance who enter at the wrong time. These specialized funds are generally suitable only as minor positions for investors who fully understand the risks.
  • Excessive volatility: The worst-performing funds experienced extreme swings, with some dropping more than 60% in a single year. These funds are designed for professional traders and institutional investors who use them for hedging or as part of complex trading strategies.

Tip

Many of these funds serve specific purposes and can do exceptionally well during particular market conditions. Inverse and leveraged bear funds like SPXU and SPXS can deliver impressive short-term gains during market downturns, with some rising 15% or more during 2022’s bear market.

The Bottom Line

The biggest value destroyers in the fund industry provide a valuable case study in how not to invest. Investors this past decade have been far better served by plain-vanilla categories like passive index funds and by sticking with the industry’s biggest and most established fund managers.



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What Kind of Easter Egg Hunt Are You In?


Editor’s Note: The U.S. stock market and the InvestorPlace offices, including Customer
Service, will be offline, Friday, April 18, for Good Friday. Our regular hours
will resume on Monday, April 21, at 9 a.m. Eastern time.

Today, I want to take a little break from all the talk about tariffs and market volatility. Instead, I want to share a two-part series from Senior Market Analyst Brian Hunt that I think you’ll find incredibly valuable. The second part of this series will be available in your next Smart Money on Saturday.

Drawing on the upcoming Easter holiday, Hunt will explain how picking stocks can be like an Easter egg hunt… and how if you want to make big returns, you need to make sure you are in the right one. I’ll let Brian explain it from here…

In the spring of 2000, a man named Reed Hastings traveled to Dallas with a big business idea.

Hastings approached the management of movie rental giant Blockbuster with a proposal. He wanted Blockbuster to buy his small business for $50 million.

At the time, Hastings’ company – called Netflix – had a promising business model. It allowed people to rent movies through the mail. Netflix was also small and struggling to turn a profit.

Hastings believed a Blockbuster purchase of Netflix would be a win-win deal for both parties. Blockbuster’s managers did not. They didn’t think Netflix’s business model made sense for them. A Netflix executive later said that Blockbuster essentially laughed Hastings out of the room.

You probably know the rest of the story.

Netflix secured investment from other sources and built a hugely popular mail-order DVD rental business.

Around 2007, it made a brilliant move and began transitioning into America’s No. 1 movie and television streaming service. This innovation crushed traditional brick-and-mortar rental companies like Blockbuster.

In 2002, Netflix had less than 3 million subscribers. By 2022, it had reached 222 million subscribers and climbed to a market valuation of $129 billion.

Blockbuster’s market valuation in 2018?

Zip.

It went bankrupt a long time ago… and its “pass” on Netflix is widely regarded as one of the worst decisions in modern corporate history.

To give you an idea of how an investor would have done with an early Netflix stake, consider that Netflix stock fell to a split-adjusted low of $0.35 per share in 2002.

Assume you did not buy the bottom, but instead invested $5,000 at $0.50 per share, picking up 10,000 shares of Netflix.

In 2022, that $5,000 investment would have been worth $2.87 million… a 574-fold return.

Netflix’s story is one of my favorite examples of one of the most powerful concepts in the world of finance and investing.

The concept?

If you want to make giant returns in stocks, you must be in the right Easter egg hunt.

Below, I explain why…

How to Find Stocks That Can Return 100-Fold Hide

On Wall Street, companies are often grouped and labeled according to their size.

Investors typically place a company in one of three size categories: large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps.

“Cap” is short for “market capitalization.” This is the term used to describe the value of a public company. To figure out a company’s market cap, all you have to do is multiply the total number of shares the company has in the market times the market price of a single share.

The group names are common sense. Large-caps are large. Small-caps are small. Mid-caps are in between.

For example, the popular software company Microsoft is a large-cap. In November 2022, its market cap was around $1.79 trillion.

Or, take iPhone maker Apple. It’s also a large-cap. In November 2022, its market cap was around $2.4 trillion .

Mid-caps are smaller than large-caps. Typically, investors consider companies with market caps in between $2 billion and $10 billion to be mid-caps.

The difference between a large-cap and a mid-cap can be huge. A mid-cap company worth $5 billion is less than 0.2% of the size of giant Microsoft.

Finally, we have small-caps.

These are companies with market caps under $2 billion.

While the difference between a mid-cap and a large-cap can be huge, the difference between a small-cap and a large-cap can be incredible.

For example, take a small-cap with a market value of $500 million.

This is just 10% of a mid-cap with a market value of $5 billon… which means it is less than one tenth of one percent the size of a large-cap like Microsoft.

Large-caps can be good investments. They are typically stable, established, profitable companies. They often pay dividends. Large-caps can be great investments for conservative investors.

But if you’re interested in making 10, 20, or even 50 times your money (or 574 times your money like with Netflix) in a single investment, you’d be smart to look at small-cap stocks.

Small-cap companies have much greater potential to produce giant returns for their shareholders in a short time than any other kind of company.

The reason is simple…

It’s much, much easier for a young, $500 million small-cap to grow 10-fold than it is for a mature $500-billion giant to grow 10-fold.

That’s just basic math.

If your daughter sold 10 boxes of Girl Scout Cookies around the neighborhood on her own, you could probably help grow her results 10-times (selling 100 boxes) by driving her around, putting a little pressure on your friends, neighbors, and coworkers to buy some boxes.

But what if your daughter was a natural saleswoman and had sold 100 boxes on her own?

To enjoy 10-times growth under that scenario, she’d have to sell 1,000 boxes. Not so easy anymore. That’s the mathematical challenge behind enjoying giant growth when a company is already doing giant sales.

Or, think about these situations…

  • When a small $300 million market-cap beverage company creates a hit product that generates an additional $1 billion in sales, it’s a huge deal that can make the company’s stock rise by hundreds or thousands of percent.

However, if beverage giant Coca-Cola creates a way to generate an additional $1 billion in sales, it barely registers on its massive income statement.

  • When a small $200 million restaurant company with 40 locations expands to 200 more locations, its market value can soar. But if mega-chain Starbucks adds 200 new locations to its already massive 14,000+ locations, it’s a blip on the company’s balance sheet.
  • When a small $600 million software company creates an amazing new way to collect, manage, and analyze healthcare data, financial data, or marketing data, it can increase revenue by over $1 billion… and its stock can soar 10-fold.

However, if giant Microsoft adds $1 billion to its $100 billion+ annual revenue, it’s a drop in the bucket that won’t even make the news.

Now, all this DOES NOT mean a large company is automatically a bad investment. It just means that it’s not an ideal investment for someone looking to make big returns in a relatively short period of time.

Remember, a $500 million small-cap is just one-tenth of one percent of a $500 billion large-cap.

That’s why a search for stocks with huge growth potential should start in the small-cap stock world.

This is where companies with the potential to grow 10, 20, 50… even 574 times larger live and hide out.

But it gets even better for small-cap investors.

There’s another tremendous benefit they enjoy that large-cap investors do not.

I believe this benefit is best explained with the story of an Easter egg hunt, which I will explain in the second part of this series. Stay tuned for that in Saturday’s Smart Money.

Regards,

Brian Hunt

InvestorPlace Senior Market Analyst

P.S. Eric Fry, here.

As you may know, I’ve been following the AI megatrend for a long time now.

That’s why I was intrigued when I learned that our corporate partners at TradeSmith released an AI algorithm that can forecast prices one month into the future.

Imagine having access to the same kind of AI-powered predictive capabilities previously available only to elite Wall Street firms. I can’t think of a more valuable tool to have in a chaotic market like this…

That’s why TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan hosted The AI Predictive Power Event earlier this week – so that regular investors can profit during the chaos… instead of fearing it.

If you didn’t get a chance to attend, click here to start watching the replay now.



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Today’s Refinance Rates by State – Apr. 17, 2025



The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Wednesday were California, Florida, New York, Texas, Colorado, Connecticut, Tennessee, and Washington. The eight states registered averages between 6.89% and 7.06%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Wednesday refinance rates were Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, Kentucky, North Dakota, Missouri, and Wyoming. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.17% to 7.21%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages have dropped 22 basis points over the last three days to a 7.09% national average—reversing course after surging 40 basis points last week. Friday’s 7.31% reading was the highest average for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year refi rates sank to 6.71%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Mortgage Rates
Loan Type Refinance Rate Average
30-Year Fixed 7.09%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.62%
15-Year Fixed 5.98%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.16%
5/6 ARM 7.15%
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions on November and December.

For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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