The International Air Transport Association trimmed its net profit estimate for the airline industry in 2025. The IATA said declining consumer confidence and trade tensions have impacted demand.
Despite those headwinds, the agency still expects record air travelers and total revenue this year.
Southwest, American, and Delta each withdrew their full-year outlook in April.
The global airline industry is expected to generate in profit this year than previously thought, the International Air Transport Association said Monday.
The IATA trimmed its net profit estimate for the industry to $36 billion in 2025 down from its prior forecast of $36.6 billion from December, citing trade tension and declining consumer confidence. The revised figure is still higher than the $32.4 billion earned in 2024.
“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets,” the IATA said. “Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections.” The agency said it expects a record 4.99 billion air travelers this year and all-time high revenue of $979 billion.
The downward revision comes as major U.S. carriers Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) each withdrew their full-year outlook in April amid economic uncertainty. United Airlines (UAL) offered a pair of earnings forecasts that varied on whether the economy entered a recession.
Shares of American, Delta, and United are each down significantly this year. Southwest shares turned positive last week as the airline introduced changes designed to drive up revenue, including nixing its signature “two bags fly free” policy.
Editor’s note: “Stay Ahead of Stock Market Volatility With An Outperforming Strategy” was previously published in May 2025.It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.
For the past several months, since it became clear that Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the stock market has been highly volatile.
In that time, we’ve seen:
One of the fastest 10% drops in market history
Following the announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 sharply declined, dropping over 12.1% in the subsequent four sessions.
One of the worst two-day crashes
On April 3-4, the market suffered a 10.5% setback, marking the fourth-worst two-day stretch since 1950.
One of the best single-day rallies
Following President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on recently implemented tariffs, the S&P surged 9.5% on April 9, marking its strongest one-day performance since October 2008.
One of the best win streaks
On May 2, the S&P locked in its ninth straight day of gains – the longest winning streak in more than 20 years – rising roughly 10% over that stretch
One of the highest readings for the volatility index
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” nearly doubled over six months, reaching a reading of 27.86.
With all this volatility, investors are dying to know what the next four years will look like for stocks under “Trump 2.0.” Is this unpredictability the new normal?
Possibly…
I have six words of advice for this era: embrace the boom, beware the bust.
Embrace the Boom; Beware the Bust
Thanks in large part to the AI investment megatrend, the U.S. stock market has been booming for the past two years.
That is, the craze around artificial intelligence has sparked an exceptional surge in investment. Companies have been racing to create the infrastructure necessary to support next-gen AI. Indeed, Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) – pretty much all the world’s major tech companies continue to spend billions upon billions of dollars to build new AI data centers, create new applications, hire more engineers, etc. And all that investment has created a major economic boom.
The result? Stocks have been soaring for two years.
From its lows in October 2022 to its peak in early February, the S&P 500 surged more than 70% higher. That is a stellar rally. And it was powered by two consecutive years of greater than 20% gains across the market.
The S&P rose 24% in 2023. It popped another 23% in ’24. That is just the fourth time since the Great Depression – nearly 100 years ago – that the index rallied more than 20% in back-to-back years.
We were unequivocally in a stock market boom.
And in our view, this boom is about to get even ‘boomier.’
Why the Stock Market Rally May Be Just Getting Restarted
We understand that stocks are off to a very rough start in Trump’s second term. One could argue that the stock market boom is already done. But we don’t think that’s the case.
Instead, we believe that the stock market boom of 2023 and ‘24 is restarting here in May 2025 for several reasons:
The AI Boom that powered the stock market rally of the last two years remains strong.
Inflation pressures are contained, with the U.S. inflation rate easing to 2.4% for the 12 months ending March 2025, down from 2.8% in February.
The labor market remains healthy. As of April 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, maintaining the narrow range (between 4.0% and 4.2%) it has held since May 2024.
Consumers are still spending, albeit more conservatively.
Tariff threats are evolving into trade deals, as the U.S. just secured an agreement with the U.K., removing tariffs on U.K. steel, aluminum, and car exports, while the U.K. eased tariffs on U.S. ethanol and beef.
Rate cuts are coming. Economists from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs expect the Fed to begin cutting rates later in 2025. We anticipate the first arriving by June.
Tax cuts and regulatory reductions are also on the horizon. Extending the expiring 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is projected to decrease federal tax revenue by $4.5 trillion from 2025 through 2034, with a long-run GDP increase of 1.1%.
All that tells us that stocks could be on the launching pad right now and should soar over the next few months, maybe even years.
Sounds great, doesn’t it?
Sure does – so long as you remember that all market booms inevitably end with busts. It is not a question of “if.” It is simply a question of “when.”
What History Says About Big Stock Market Booms (and Busts)
As we mentioned before, the stock market just notched back-to-back years of 20%-plus gains. It has only done that three times before: in 1935/36, 1954/55, and 1995/96.
After the two boom years in 1935 and ‘36, stocks immediately crashed about 40% in 1937. That boom turned into a bust almost immediately.
Following the market boom in 1954 and ‘55, stocks went flat in ‘56, then dropped 15% in 1957. The boom turned into a bust after about a year.
Similarly, post-1995/96, stocks kept partying throughout 1997, ‘98, and ‘99 – only to crash about 50% throughout 2000, ‘01, and ‘02. After about three years, that era’s big boom turned into a big bust as well.
All booms of this nature turn into busts. It is simply a matter of timing.
Does that mean you should get out of stocks and run for the hills now to avoid the inevitable meltdown?
Usually, the last 30 minutes of a movie is the best part of the film. The last episode of a TV show is almost always the best one, just as the last few minutes of a ballgame are normally the most exciting.
Similarly, the last few years of a stock market boom can often be the most profitable.
Just consider the Dot Com Boom of the 1990s.
Tech stocks had some amazing years therein. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 40% in 1995, about 20% in ‘96, another 20% in ‘97, and then 40% again in ‘98. But tech stocks saved their best for last, with the Nasdaq soaring almost 90% for its best year ever in 1999.
Then the bust started in 2000.
Point being: The best year for tech stocks in the ‘90s was the final year of the Dot Com Boom.
That’s why you don’t want to leave a stock market party early. But you also don’t want to leave too late.
So, what’s an investor to do?
Embrace the boom. Beware the bust. Ride stocks higher, then head for the exits when the warning signs appear.
Of course, that’s much easier said than done, I know.
That’s exactly why we created Auspex: an algorithmic stock screener that analyzes thousands of stocks each month to help us uncover those most likely to rise over the next 30 days.
It adheres to strict parameters so that it highlights only those with the most favorable fundamental, technical, and sentimental setups. And typically, only a few make each final cut.
Following a final manual evaluation from my team, those stocks go on to become our “Auspex picks” for the month. And after 30 days, we do it all over again.
This tool is designed to help you truly embrace the boom while remaining protected from the bust.
Meta Platforms is reportedly planning to allow brands to use artificial intelligence to fully make and target ads by the end of next year.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Meta’s ad tools would allow brands to use AI to “create the entire ad, including imagery, video and text.”
Meta shares are down slightly at market opening but are up more than 10% so far this year entering Monday.
Meta Platforms (META) is reportedly planning to allow brands to use artificial intelligence to fully make and target ads by the end of next year.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, Meta is creating ad tools that would allow brands to “present an image of the product it wants to promote along with a budgetary goal, and AI would create the entire ad, including imagery, video and text.” The system would also pick the Instagram and Facebook users to target and give suggestions on budget, the report said.
Advertising brought in more than 97% of Meta’s overall revenue last year, according to the report. Some brands are worried that the AI-generated ads won’t look or feel the same as ads made by people, the report added. Meta didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Meta said in April that it plans to boost its capital expenditures this year to $64 billion to $72 billion to grow its AI capacity. Meta shares are down slightly at market opening but are up more than 10% so far this year entering Monday.
U.S. stock futures are pointing lower as investors review comments from China that accused the U.S. of undermining the recent trade agreement between the two countries; President Donald Trump said he would double tariffs on steel imports to 50%, sending U.S. steelmaker stocks higher in premarket trading; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks today; and Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) stock is soaring after French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi (SNY) said it would acquire the U.S. drugmaker. Here’s what investors need to know today.
1. US Stock Futures Fall as Investors Consider China Tariff Comments
U.S. stock futures are pointing lower as investors weigh China’s accusation that the U.S. had undermined a trade agreement between the two countries, potentially inflaming trade tensions. Nasdaq futures are 0.5% lower after the tech-heavy index rose by more than 9% in May for its biggest monthly gain since November 2023. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after the benchmark index added more than 6% last month, also its biggest advance since November 2023, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are dipping 0.2%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is lower, trading at just over $104,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is higher. Oil futures are surging roughly 4% and gold futures are up nearly 2% to trade at around $3,375 an ounce.
2. China Accuses US of Undermining Trade Deal in Response to Trump
China on Monday said that the U.S. had introduced measures that “seriously undermine” the trade agreement between the two countries. China’s statement follows remarks from President Donald Trump that accused Beijing of being in violation of the deal struck last month in Geneva. China said that moves by the U.S. to issue export control guidelines for AI chips, stop the sale of chip design software to China, and revoke Chinese student visas were among the violations of the agreement.
3. Trump Says US Will Double Steel Tariffs to 50%
President Trump said Friday that he would double tariffs on steel imports to 50%, sending shares of U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) soaring 25% in premarket trading, while those of Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE) are jumping around 10%. Tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum went into effect on March 12, part of Trump’s stated goal of bringing more metal production to the U.S., which imports nearly a quarter of its supplies of steel. The move comes amid Trump’s endorsement of a “partnership” between U.S. Steel (X) and Japan’s Nippon Steel after former President Joe Biden blocked Nippon’s proposed acquisition.
4. Powell Remarks Come as Fed Faces Pressure on Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks today at 1 p.m. ET at an event hosted by the central bank. Powell’s comments come after he met last week with President Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates, and as price pressures eased again in April. Fed officials have said they are monitoring inflation for signs of price increases from Trump’s tariffs. Powell’s comments follow remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who this weekend said that interest rate cuts could be on the table later this year.
5. Blueprint Medicines Stock Soars as Sanofi Acquires Biotech for More Than $9B
Shares of Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) are soaring 27% in premarket trading as French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi (SNY) said it would acquire the U.S. drugmaker for up to $9.5 billion. The deal would give Sanofi access to Blueprint’s treatment for systemic mastocytosis (SM), a rare immunological disease. “Blueprint’s established presence among allergists, dermatologists, and immunologists is expected to enhance Sanofi’s growing immunology pipeline,” Sanofi said. U.S.-listed shares of Sanofi are down less than 1%.
Canada’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q1 2025, closely mirroring the revised 2.1% expansion in the previous quarter (down from an initial 2.6%). While this suggests stability on the surface, the underlying factors paint a more nuanced picture. Much of the growth was driven by businesses stockpiling inventories ahead of anticipated tariffs and a sharp uptick in machinery investment, both of which are unlikely to be sustained in the months ahead.
Trade activity also showed signs of softening. Export growth remained positive but was largely fueled by companies front-loading purchases of machinery and autos in preparation for potential disruptions. This means that inventory accumulation and trade, rather than broader economic momentum, were the key drivers of growth.
Meanwhile, household spending weakened noticeably, particularly in services, a stark departure from the robust gains of the past four quarters. Residential investment also took a sharp downturn, reversing much of the late-2024 rebound. Uncertainty around trade policy and broader economic conditions continues to weigh on housing activity.
Non-residential investment remained positive, though growth slowed compared to the previous quarter. A surge in machinery and equipment investment helped offset declines in structural investment, but the sustainability of this trend remains in question.
Looking ahead, while Canada’s economy continues to expand, much of the recent strength has been tied to temporary factors. The downward revision of Q4 2024 growth from 2.6% to 2.1% reinforces a sense of caution. Preliminary data from April suggests the expansion is continuing (+0.1% m/m), but the risk of near-zero growth in the second quarter remains significant.
Can the CAD go 5 in a row?
Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist
The CAD just wrapped up its strongest four-month streak since 2021, closing Friday at 1.373. Will it extend to five months? The last time it posted five consecutive months of gains against the USD was back in April 2020, a similar price pattern that saw it surge to 1.467 before pulling back to 1.30.
What stands between the CAD and next key support at 1.35? The loonie’s 2-year average aligns closely with key support at 1.37, reinforcing its technical significance. Short-term price action continues to be dictated by movements in the US dollar, where persistent bearish positioning remains overstretched. A contrarian view would suggest that the overstretched positioning against the USD is poised for a pause at least, potentially putting a floor on the CAD.
However, as June kicks off, the USD/CAD has hit a fresh 2025 low at 1.3675, testing the 1.37 support level. A decisive daily close below this mark could signal additional weakness in the US dollar.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s recent decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into Canada’s economic outlook. As a leading exporter of both metals to the U.S., Canada could see mounting pressure, potentially dampening broader market sentiment. However, the CAD has largely shrugged off these sector-specific levies, showing little reaction to their immediate impact.
High bar for sustained dollar weakness
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The initial boost to the US dollar from the Federal Trade Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs quickly faded as a federal appeals court granted a stay on the ruling until 9 June, keeping tariffs in place for now. Moreover, markets shifted focus to Section 899 of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” as US policy uncertainty remains a key overhang.
Adding to renewed trade tensions with China, this could be another growing challenge for the US dollar. Section 899, if passed through the Senate, would allow the US to tax companies and investors from countries deemed to have “unfair foreign taxes”, such as digital services taxes or rules on under-taxed profits. This could effectively act as a capital account tax, at a time when investor confidence in US assets is already shaky. A policy that reduces foreign investors’ returns on US holdings would likely dampen capital inflows, further driving away foreign investors from US assets, including the dollar, already weakened by Trump’s unpredictable trade moves and worsening fiscal conditions.
However, there are still uncertainties around the bill’s final form. It has yet to clear the Senate, and key details remain unresolved. First, it’s unclear if income from US Treasuries will be exempt. Second, S899 would primarily target countries like the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, while Middle Eastern and Asian nations, home to large global reserves, are seemingly excluded.
Market positioning already reflects broad scepticism toward the dollar, but the scale of additional bearish shifts may be constrained. Traders remain focused on tariff developments, fiscal policy, and global trade negotiations, but much of the negative USD sentiment may be priced in. The dollar’s direction this week will continue to be driven by developments with the court ruling on tariffs, but a slew of economic data will also be key. The May jobs report on Friday will be closely watched, especially for signs of Liberation Day’s impact on hiring and whether DOGE spending cuts are starting to weigh on federal employment.
Euro’s path hinges on ECB and market momentum
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming meeting on Thursday is drawing attention, as recent developments in trade and tariffs have slightly increased the possibility of a pause. However, a downward revision to inflation forecasts and the earlier-than-expected drop in headline inflation to below 2% suggest that the balance is tilting toward a 25 basis-point rate cut. Inflation risks continue to weigh on the outlook, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing.
Eurozone inflation data due on Tuesday is expected to show a decline to 2.0% in the headline print for May. This drop is largely due to falling energy prices and a reversal of last month’s core inflation spike, which had been inflated by Easter-related holiday and leisure costs. With core inflation likely returning to 2.5%, policymakers may see further justification for easing. A rate cut could exert downward pressure on the euro, though much depends on how aggressively markets price in future ECB policy moves.
A dovish ECB, combined with cooling trade tensions and legal battles, could drive EUR/USD lower in the near term. However, the pair has reclaimed its 21-day moving average, which is starting to slope upward, suggesting positive momentum may be rebuilding for the euro. The options market and positioning trends indicate that traders are still favouring euro strength, though short-term volatility remains a risk.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
China on Monday countered President Donald Trump’s earlier remarks that the country had violated the trade truce struck between Washington and Beijing last month in Geneva, saying the U.S. had introduced measures that “seriously undermine” their deal.
A Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said China would “take resolute and forceful measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
The escalation of trade tensions between the two nations weighed on global stocks Monday.
China on Monday countered President Donald Trump’s earlier remarks that the country had violated the trade truce struck between Washington and Beijing last month in Geneva, saying the U.S. had introduced measures that “seriously undermine” their deal.
According to a translation, a Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson vowed to “take resolute and forceful measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.” The spokesperson said that following last month’s Geneva talks, the U.S. had “successively introduced a number of discriminatory restrictive measures against China, including issuing export control guidelines for AI chips, stopping the sale of chip design software (EDA) to China, and announcing the revocation of Chinese student visas.”
“These practices seriously violate the consensus reached by the two heads of state on January 17, seriously undermine the existing consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and seriously damage China’s legitimate rights and interests,” the spokesperson added.
The response by Beijing follows a post by Trump on Friday saying that “the bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”
The escalation of trade tensions between the two nations weighed on global stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is about 0.4% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei closed down 1.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng—where the biggest Chinese companies are listed—dropped 0.6%. U.S. stock futures are pointing lower, with those associated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures 0.6% lower, and S&P 500 futures down 0.5%.
President Donald Trump said Friday that Elon Musk is “really not leaving” his cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, and that “he’s going to be back and forth.”
Musk said earlier this week that he would leave the Trump administration and refocus on his companies.
The Department of Government Efficiency that Musk has led will continue to operate with its stated goal of cutting federal spending.
President Donald Trump said Friday that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is “really not leaving” his cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, and expects Musk is “going to be back and forth” to continue his work.
Musk said Friday he expects to “continue to be visiting” Washington and remain a “friend and advisor” to the president after his legally stated term as a “special government employee” has ended.
Musk also said that he continues to believe DOGE will find more ways to cut government spending, and achieve the group’s goal of $1 trillion in cuts by the time the program—which may be extended—is set to end in the middle of 2026.
Shares of Tesla fell about 3% Friday, but posted gains for the week. The electric vehicle maker’s stock has trended higher over the last month since Musk said in Tesla’s latest earnings call that he would scale back his government work starting this month amid calls for the CEO to spend more time at Tesla.
Setting your home’s asking price is one of the most significant decisions you have to make when listing your home. Price it too high and your home might stay on the market for a long time. Price it too low and you might shortchange yourself. We’ll cover the most effective strategies for listing your house at its best price point, so you get the most value and can sell your home quickly.
Key Takeaways
A comparative market analysis (CMA) is a report that compares your home to similar homes in your area.
Relying on local market trends and professionals can help you get more offers and potentially sell your home for more.
If you price your home too high, you might not get offers, and your home may sit on the market. The longer it does, the less you’ll be able to sell it for.
Important
If you are pricing your house to sell it likely means you are in the market for a new home. Researching the best mortgage rates and best mortgage lenders can save you thousands of dollars on your next home purchase.
Understand the Market
Before we jump into how the market affects your asking price, realize that the housing market can be dramatically different across the country. Do your research to learn about the market conditions in your area. Specifically, are you looking at a seller’s market or a buyer’s market?
If there’s not a lot of housing inventory and more buyers than homes, you’re looking at a seller’s market, so you can price your home more aggressively. On the other hand, if there aren’t many buyers and there are lots of homes to choose from, you’ll have to price your home competitively.
Sometimes, the market is balanced between buyers and available homes. If that’s the case, keep your pricing fair and don’t expect to get much more for your home than it’s worth. Market conditions, like prevailing mortgage interest rates, can often determine the level of buyers that can afford to buy homes.
Tip
To help you learn about the state of the market, find out the average days on market (DOM) for homes in your area. If they’re sitting for a long time or going for well under asking, it’s a buyer’s market.
Analyze Comparable Properties
Ask your realtor to run a comparative market analysis (CMA). This report compares your home to similar ones in your area. This gives you a good idea of what buyers are paying for similar homes. The report takes into account your home’s square footage, number of beds and baths, condition, age, and location.
Avoid Overpricing
If you price your home for more than it’s worth or what similar homes are going for, you’re limiting your pool of eligible buyers. Plus, buyers will see more competitively priced homes as better deals. And, if your home sits on the market for very long, you’ll probably have to cut the asking price.
Pay attention to how many offers you get during the first two weeks. If your home is not attracting much interest, quickly adjust the price so it’s more competitive and doesn’t linger on the market.
Use Strategic Pricing
Listing prices are very intentional, often using psychology to support their determination. For instance, items priced under century numbers (round numbers) are proven to be more attractive. So, instead of listing your home at $505,000, psychological pricing suggests asking $499,900. This also expands your pool of potential buyers to anyone searching for homes under $500,000.
To use psychological pricing, avoid awkward prices and instead select round-number brackets, such as $250,000–$300,000 or $500,000–$550,000.
Evaluate Unique Property Features
If your home has special features that make it stand out, include these when setting the price, because they make your home more valuable. Here are some examples of unique property features:
Bathroom or kitchen renovations
Location near good schools or parks
Larger lot or located in a highly desirable area
Swimming pool
Antique architecture
Avoid Emotional Pricing
One of the worst things you can do is let your emotions determine your home’s listing price. While you might feel your home is worth a lot because it has sentimental value or has been in your family for generations, these feelings don’t translate to increased market value.
Remember, your comparative market analysis is one of your most valuable tools.
Leverage Professional Appraisal
Listing your home can be stressful. Putting together a team of professionals can make the process so much easier, especially if you hire a professional appraiser. They can give you an unbiased estimate of your home’s value.
You should also consider hiring an experienced listing agent who can help you put your home on the market and adjust the asking price as needed.
Plan for Launch Impact
Ideally, your home should get some buzz or at least several offers within the first week or two. This lets you know the home is priced right. If the housing market in your area is hot and you face stiff competition, you can generate interest by underpricing slightly. This could lead to multiple offers or even a bidding war, where you sell the home for over asking.
Monitor and Adjust the Price
There is the possibility that your home won’t get any offers or have showings within the first few weeks. If this happens, talk with your professional team about tweaking the price.
You should also be aware that the market is typically more active during spring and summer when most people are looking to move. Listing your home during the fall or winter might mean making more price adjustments.
The Bottom Line
Putting your home on the market can be a stressful time, but it’s important to use professional advice and market data when making decisions about the asking price. Instead of letting your emotions set an unrealistic price, professionals and data can help you list the home so it’s more likely to sell quickly and for the most value.
The initial boost to the US dollar from the Federal Trade Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs quickly faded as a federal appeals court granted a stay on the ruling until 9 June, keeping tariffs in place for now. Moreover, markets shifted focus to Section 899 of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” as US policy uncertainty remains a key overhang.
Adding to renewed trade tensions with China, this could be another growing challenge for the US dollar. Section 899, if passed through the Senate, would allow the US to tax companies and investors from countries deemed to have “unfair foreign taxes”, such as digital services taxes or rules on under-taxed profits. This could effectively act as a capital account tax, at a time when investor confidence in US assets is already shaky. A policy that reduces foreign investors’ returns on US holdings would likely dampen capital inflows, further driving away foreign investors from US assets, including the dollar, already weakened by Trump’s unpredictable trade moves and worsening fiscal conditions.
However, there are still uncertainties around the bill’s final form. It has yet to clear the Senate, and key details remain unresolved. First, it’s unclear if income from US Treasuries will be exempt. Second, S899 would primarily target countries like the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, while Middle Eastern and Asian nations, home to large global reserves, are seemingly excluded.
Market positioning already reflects broad scepticism toward the dollar, but the scale of additional bearish shifts may be constrained. Traders remain focused on tariff developments, fiscal policy, and global trade negotiations, but much of the negative USD sentiment may be priced in. The dollar’s direction this week will continue to be driven by developments with the court ruling on tariffs, but a slew of economic data will also be key. The May jobs report on Friday will be closely watched, especially for signs of Liberation Day’s impact on hiring and whether DOGE spending cuts are starting to weigh on federal employment.
Euro’s path hinges on ECB and market momentum
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming meeting on Thursday is drawing attention, as recent developments in trade and tariffs have slightly increased the possibility of a pause. However, a downward revision to inflation forecasts and the earlier-than-expected drop in headline inflation to below 2% suggest that the balance is tilting toward a 25 basis-point rate cut. Inflation risks continue to weigh on the outlook, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing.
Eurozone inflation data due on Tuesday is expected to show a decline to 2.0% in the headline print for May. This drop is largely due to falling energy prices and a reversal of last month’s core inflation spike, which had been inflated by Easter-related holiday and leisure costs. With core inflation likely returning to 2.5%, policymakers may see further justification for easing. A rate cut could exert downward pressure on the euro, though much depends on how aggressively markets price in future ECB policy moves.
A dovish ECB, combined with cooling trade tensions and legal battles, could drive EUR/USD lower in the near term. However, the pair has reclaimed its 21-day moving average, which is starting to slope upward, suggesting positive momentum may be rebuilding for the euro. The options market and positioning trends indicate that traders are still favouring euro strength, though short-term volatility remains a risk.
Pound’s rally faces key tests
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling edged lower to $1.35, retreating from its three-year high of $1.3593 on May 26, as investors reassessed growth prospects and trade dynamics. In tandem, GBP/EUR pulled back from near €1.20, with traders shifting toward the euro amid global trade tensions and rising FX volatility.
Recent soft US economic data, including a Q1 contraction and higher jobless claims, has strengthened expectations for two Fed rate cuts by early 2026, creating a potentially supportive backdrop for GBP/USD. However, lingering global uncertainty and UK-specific factors remain key for near-term direction. The BoE’s cautious approach reflects resilient UK data, with strong April retail sales, improved consumer confidence in May, and sticky inflation.
Markets are pricing 54bp of BoE cuts over 12 months, compared to 60bp from the ECB, leaving a policy gap of around 200bp in the UK’s favor. The recent stabilization in risk sentiment has pushed GBP/EUR toward levels consistent with rate differentials and VIX, though modest further upside remains possible.
For GBP/USD, staying above its 21-day and long-term moving averages suggests the uptrend remains intact. With four consecutive monthly gains, further upside could materialize—especially if investors continue reducing dollar exposure amid US policy uncertainty. A move toward $1.40 in H2 2025 remains on the radar, contingent on macro drivers aligning.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
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Below you’ll find featured rates available from our partners, followed by details from our ranking of the best CDs available nationwide.
4.65% for 6 Months or 4.50% Until Summer 2026
The best CD rate in the country now comes from Technology Credit Union, with a guaranteed 4.65% APY for 6 months. If you lock in this weekend, you could enjoy that rate until about December.
Want other options? The next-best rate of 4.50% is available from a slew of institutions. CD shoppers can choose one of 15 offers, ranging from a 3-month certificate from PonceBankDirect to two 13-month guarantees from Elements Financial and Vibrant Credit Union.
If you want a longer rate lock and are willing to take a slightly lower APY, you can go with Quorum Federal Credit Union’s 18-month offer at 4.40%, which would extend past Thanksgiving of next year.
To view the top 15–20 nationwide rates in any term, click on the desired term length in the left column above.
All Federally Insured Institutions Are Equally Protected
Your deposits at any FDIC bank or NCUA credit union are federally insured, meaning you’re protected by the U.S. government in the unlikely case that the institution fails. Not only that, but the coverage is identical—deposits are insured up to $250,000 per person and per institution—no matter the size of the bank or credit union.
Consider Longer-Term CDs To Guarantee Your APY Further Down the Road
For a rate lock you can enjoy for almost two years, PenAir Credit Union is paying 4.40% APY for 21 months, promising its rate until February 2027. Or, stretch your guarantee further by taking a slightly lower APY of 4.32%, available for 30 months from Genisys Credit Union.
Savers who can sock their money away for even longer might like the leading 4-year or 5-year certificates. You can lock in a 4.28% rate for 4 years from Lafayette Federal Credit Union. In fact, Lafayette promises the same 4.28% APY on all its certificates from 7 months through 5 years, letting you secure that rate as far as 2030.
Multiyear CDs are likely smart right now, given the possibility of Fed rate cuts later in 2025, and perhaps also in 2026. The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by a full percentage point last fall and could restart rate cuts in the coming months. While any interest-rate reductions from the Fed will push bank APYs lower, a CD rate you secure now will be yours to enjoy until it matures.
Today’s Best CDs Still Pay Historically High Returns
It’s true that CD rates are no longer at their peak. But despite the pullback, the best CDs still offer a stellar return. October 2023 saw the highest CD rates push briefly to 6%, while today’s leading rate is 4.65%. But compare that to early 2022, before the Federal Reserve embarked on its fast-and-furious rate-hike campaign. The most you could earn from the very best CDs in the country ranged from just 0.50% to 1.70% APY, depending on the term.
Jumbo CDs Beat Regular CDs in 4 Terms
Jumbo CDs require much larger deposits and sometimes pay premium rates—but not always. In fact, today’s best jumbo CD rates only out-pay the top standard rate in four of the eight CD terms we track. That means it’s smart to always check both types of offerings when CD shopping, and if your best rate option is a standard CD, simply open it with a jumbo-sized deposit.
Institutions are offering higher jumbo rates in the following terms:
In the 1-year term, meanwhile, the top standard and jumbo CDs pay the same rate of 4.50% APY.
*Indicates the highest APY offered in each term. To view our lists of the top-paying CDs across terms for bank, credit union, and jumbo certificates, click on the column headers above.
Where Are CD Rates Headed in 2025?
In December, the Federal Reserve announced a third rate cut to the federal funds rate in as many meetings, reducing it a full percentage point since September. But following its announcement earlier this month, the central bank has opted to hold rates steady at all three of its 2025 meetings to date.
The Fed’s rate cuts last year represented a pivot from the central bank’s historic 2022–2023 rate-hike campaign, in which the committee aggressively increased interest rates to combat decades-high inflation. At its 2023 peak, the federal funds rate climbed to its highest level since 2001—and remained there for nearly 14 months.
Fed rate moves are significant to savers, as any reductions to the fed funds rate will push down the rates that banks and credit unions are willing to pay consumers for their deposits. Both CD rates and savings account rates reflect these changes to the fed funds rate.
Time will tell what exactly will happen to the federal funds rate in 2025 and 2026—as tariff activity from the Trump administration has paused the Fed’s course as policymakers await clear data. But with more Fed rate cuts possibly arriving later this year, today’s CD rates could be the best you’ll see in a while—making now a smart time to lock in the best rate that suits your personal timeline.
Daily Rankings of the Best CDs and Savings Accounts
We update these rankings every business day to give you the best deposit rates available:
Important
Note that the “top rates” quoted here are the highest nationally available rates Investopedia has identified in its daily rate research on hundreds of banks and credit unions. This is much different than the national average, which includes all banks offering a CD with that term, including many large banks that pay a pittance in interest. Thus, the national averages are always quite low, while the top rates you can unearth by shopping around are often 5, 10, or even 15 times higher.
How We Find the Best CD Rates
Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying certificates in every major term. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), the CD’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000, and any specified maximum deposit cannot be under $5,000.
Banks must be available in at least 40 states. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.
