Archives June 2025

Refinance rates for 30-year loans fell a bold 8 basis points Wednesday, reducing the average to 7.09%. It’s a significant improvement vs. a recent peak of 7.32%, and is the lowest average since May 8.

Given that 30-year refi rates sank as low as 6.71% in March, however, today’s rates are still elevated. The current average is also almost 1.1 percentage points above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.

Rates moved lower for many other refi loan types as well Wednesday. The 15-year refinance average dipped 4 basis points, while 20-year rates plunged 13 points. The jumbo 30-year refinance average meanwhile subtracted 9 basis points.

What would you get in the—unlikely, to be sure—event that your employer was sold and every worker got an equal share of the take? For Nvidia employees, we’re talking millions and millions of dollars.

Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, is worth about $3.5 trillion. With just 36,000 employees, its market capitalization per employee stands at above $90 million. That’s nearly three times competitor Broadcom’s (AVGO) per-employee value, and it dwarfs Apple’s (AAPL) $18 million and Microsoft’s (MSFT) $15 million.

These figures were recently crunched by Deutsche Bank research strategist Jim Reid, who wondered: “Are today’s largest companies structurally employing fewer people than in the past?”

To answer that question, Reid looked back at some of America’s most valuable companies since 1950 and their respective headcounts when their value was at its peak. One might assume there’s been a structural shift toward smaller employee rolls as technological advancements improved efficiency, but history suggests “employment density” at America’s biggest companies goes through cycles.

Few Companies With Headcounts Like Nvidia’s Have Same Value

General Motors (GM), America’s largest company in the 1950s, employed about 600,000 people at its peak. Just years later, in the late ’60s, Eastman Kodak surpassed GM in market value with just one-sixth of the workforce. In the ’70s, General Electric employed about 400,000 people. 

These are enormous workforces compared with Nvidia’s, which from a market cap per employee perspective is in a league of its own, Reid says. But a few companies with headcounts comparable with Nvidia’s have become the world’s most valuable. Oil company Amoco’s margins were padded by elevated oil prices in the late 1970s, helping its market cap surge with only about 50,000 workers. 

Cisco is the historical example that most resembles Nvidia. Like Cisco in the late ’90s, Nvidia is “operationally lean, highly reliant on intellectual property and engineering talent, and outsources the more labour-intensive aspects of production,” wrote Reid.

The analysis could offer some relief to those concerned that the proliferation of artificial intelligence will result in mass unemployment as AI agents and robots replace human workers.

“What’s clear through history is that while we’ve always found ways to employ people, how they’re distributed across firms and sectors is constantly evolving,” Reid wrote.

Amazon (AMZN) reportedly has assembled a research and development (R&D) team to develop an agentic artificial intelligence (AI) framework for its robotics division.

The team will be housed at Lab126, the Amazon R&D unit responsible for the Kindle e-reader, Fire TV products, and Echo devices, according to CNBC and Reuters.

Agentic AI, unlike more straightforward tools like chatbots, is designed to handle complex tasks assigned by users, sometimes with little human interaction required. Amazon wants to use that technology in its warehouse robots, making them capable of performing in-depth processes rather than just a single job, the reports said. 

“We’re creating systems that can hear, understand and act on natural language commands, turning warehouse robots into flexible, multi-talented assistants,” Amazon said, per Reuters. 

Earlier this year, Amazon Web Services (AWS) launched its own agentic AI division, according to Reuters, which said it had viewed an internal email from AWS CEO Matt Garman in which he wrote that agentic AI had potential to be “the next multi-billion business for AWS.”

Shares of Amazon rose nearly 2% in recent trading Thursday but are down 4% in 2025.

The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates Wednesday were New York, California, Massachusetts, Washington, Connecticut, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The eight states registered averages between 6.74% and 6.89%.

Meanwhile, the states with Wednesday’s most expensive 30-year rates were Alaska, Kansas, Mississippi, Vermont, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, North Dakota, and West Virginia. The range of averages for these pricier states was 6.98% to 7.09%.

Mortgage rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages have fallen six of the last eight market days, lowering the average to 6.91%. That matches the cheapest reading in over a month.

In March, however, 30-year rates sank to 6.50%, their lowest average of 2025. And in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 5.89%.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Buckle up for payrolls

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The US dollar slipped alongside two-year yields after fresh US economic data painted a mixed picture, but losses were pared following the news that China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump have agreed to start a new round of trade negotiations as soon as possible. But the relief was brief. Global risk sentiment then took a knock later in the day as President Trump and Elon Musk traded blows over Twitter, with Tesla’s share price plunging 14%, dragging on US equity indices.

On the data front, the US trade deficit fell 55% in April, on the largest-ever plunge in imports, as companies stopped massive front-loading of goods. The retreat reflects the abrupt hit to trade, after firms had rushed products into the country earlier this year to try to get ahead of new taxes on imports Trump had promised. Shifts in US import flows have already outstripped the pandemic and look unlikely to return to normal before tariff levels reach a new equilibrium.

Meanwhile, higher-than-expected jobless claims signals cracks in the labour market, but rising unit labour costs and weaker productivity point to lingering inflation pressures. The challenge for policymakers is evident: navigating slower growth while inflation risks persist, a combination that complicates the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate stance. The next big test for the dollar is today’s US jobs report, which will be closely watched, especially for signs of Liberation Day’s impact on hiring and whether DOGE spending cuts are starting to weigh on federal employment. Markets expect the US created 126K jobs during May and the unemployment rate to have stayed at 4.2%. Recent employment components of survey data suggest May was a weak month though, with tariff-related uncertainty weighing on hiring decisions. If we get a softer than expected print today, this should be dollar negative and might send the dollar index back towards 3-year lows.

FX markets are adjusting to softer US prints, and as clarity on policy emerges, the dollar’s trajectory will become more defined. Yet, the broader concern remains: trust in the dollar as a global reserve currency continues to erode, reinforcing its position as the core of the ‘Sell America’ trade. Unless stronger trade agreements materialize, skepticism toward the dollar is likely to persist, keeping upside potential limited.

Even with the trade war taking a backseat recently though, dollar sentiment remains shaky, as attention has also shifted to President Trump’s tax bill. The Congressional Budget Office now projects it will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, a factor that could weigh on long-term dollar stability too.

Hawkish surprise lifts the Euro

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered unexpectedly hawkish remarks during yesterday’s press conference, despite cutting the deposit rate to 2%, in line with market expectations. In response, the euro surged nearly 1% against the dollar, flirting with $1.15 at $1.1495, while German two-year yields climbed to a two-week peak. Lagarde stated that policymakers are approaching the end of the monetary policy cycle, as the current rate is deemed appropriate for navigating ongoing economic uncertainty. She also did not rule out upward revisions to growth projections, also emphasizing that the 25-basis-point cut was not unanimous. While trade uncertainty may weigh on business investment and exports, Lagarde pointed to government spending on defense and infrastructure as potential growth drivers in the future. Shortly after, money markets trimmed expectations for further rate cuts this year, no longer fully pricing another ECB reduction by year-end.

However, the euro’s rally wasn’t solely driven by Lagarde’s speech. In fact, the correlation between EUR/USD and the spread between two-year US-German yields has weakened to its lowest level in more than two years, underscoring that trade developments—rather than interest rate differentials—have been the primary driver of FX movements recently. Instead, an unexpected jump in US jobless claims, released around the same time as Lagarde’s speech, quietly contributed to EUR/USD’s surge. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed may cut rates at least twice this year, further stoking concerns over tariffs and economic uncertainty—adding to the dollar’s challenges.

Although EUR/USD lost some momentum as the session progressed, a softer-than-expected NFP report today could see the pair ending the week comfortably within the $1.14 range.

Pound notches 40-month high

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The pound briefly spiked to its highest level since February 2022, finally breaking through the $1.36 resistance barrier – a level GBP/USD has only been above for 14% of the post-Brexit period. The move was triggered by a string of weak US data, which puts the US jobs report in focus today. A weaker print could jolt the pound back above this threshold whilst a stronger print could drag it back towards $1.35.

As we’ve highlighted for several weeks, beyond dollar dynamics, GBP sentiment has notably improved thanks to strong domestic economic data, UK trade agreements, and the BoE’s relatively hawkish stance. These factors reinforce sterling’s idiosyncratic strength, making its rally more than just a dollar story. However, given the pound is approaching overbought conditions via the 14-day relative strength index, the upside potential in the short-term could be limited in scope. Traders are also trimming their expectations on further gains in the British pound, according to options-market pricing, with one-month risk reversals edging lower for a third day running.

Meanwhile, versus the euro, sterling is struggling to reclaim the €1.19 handle this week, near which lie both the 21-day and 100-day moving averages. GBP/EUR continues to trade in sideways pattern since mid May, though real rate differentials suggest the pair should be trading closer to €1.20 given the divergence between ECB and BoE policy expectations.

Dollar index holds near lower third of 7-day range

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: June 2-6

All times are in BST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Insurance companies offer annuities to individuals looking to augment their income during their golden years. Those who enter into an annuity contract pay a certain amount of cash either in a lump sum or in installments, then later receive payments (either in a lump sum or regular payouts). 

Of course, this isn’t money for nothing. Annuities often come with a range of fees, commissions, and hidden charges. It’s wise to consider these costs before engaging in any annuity contract.

What Are Annuity Fees and Commissions?

Two types of costs come with annuities: fees and commissions. Fees are charged by the insurance company to cover certain costs, such as insurance risk, administering the account, for the expenses of the investments. Fees also cover additional features, such as a guaranteed minimum income benefit or long-term care insurance.

Along with these fees, there are also commissions associated with an annuity contract. These are payments that go to the agent who helped set up your plan. But while you, as the annuitant, have to pay fees, the commission is usually covered by the insurer and built into the contract.

There’s another charge that you should be aware of as well when it comes to an annuity: early withdrawals from annuities are subject to a 10% IRS penalty plus income tax (unless an exception applies).

Types of Annuity Fees

Administrative Fees

Similar to other financial products, such as a 401(k) or IRA, the issuer may charge you for the recordkeeping and other administrative expenses of your annuity contract. This may be a flat annual fee, or a percentage of your account value, typically about 0.3%. Comparatively, 401(k) fees can range between 0.5% and 1% or even higher, depending on plan size and investment options.

Mortality and Expense Risk Charges

As an insurance product, annuities come with risk. Typically found in variable annuities, the insurer will charge you about 1.25% of the account value annually for the risk it assumes under the contract. According to the SEC, the profit from this charge is sometimes used to pay a commission to the person who sold you the annuity.

Surrender Charges

Say you bought into a variable annuity but need money sooner than you anticipated. During the surrender period, which is usually six to eight years after buying the annuity, you decide to sell or withdraw funds from the contract. You’ll now be subject to a surrender charge by the insurer.

These vary from contract to contract but are typically steep, starting as high as 7% in the first year, then dropping 1 percentage point each year before disappearing entirely. The value and potential returns of your annuity will be reduced if you opt to withdraw early.

Investment Expense Ratios and Rate Spreads

These costs are only applicable to certain kinds of annuities, particularly variable and fixed index annuities. The investment expense ratio is a fee for managing the annuity’s investments, and could range from 0.6% to 3% each year.

Rate spreads are applied to fixed index annuities, which typically offer a guaranteed minimum rate of return. The spread covers the risk insurers take on by providing that benefit. The insurance company will set a percentage for the interest rate spread each new contract year. 

Understanding Annuity Commissions

For annuities, you are usually not directly responsible for paying the commission, which is the payment due to the individual who set up your contract. The commission is typically built into the price of the contract, and could range based on the total value and complexity of the annuity — the higher the complexity, the higher the commission. Again, beware of agents that steer you toward more complex annuity products if they’re beyond your needs.

For example, the commission for a single premium immediate annuity or multi-year guaranteed annuity may be 1% to 3%, a deferred income annuity may be 2% to 4%, while a fixed index annuity may fetch a commission between 6% to 8%.

Factors Influencing Annuity Costs

Annuity Type

All annuities are subject to administrative fees and a commission, the latter of which you are usually not directly responsible for. As an annuity product becomes more complex, you’ll have to pay more fees to the insurer.

On the simpler side, for example, an immediate annuity is purchased with a lump sum payment and is not subject to any additional fees unless you add a rider. A fixed annuity generally exposes buyers to the least risk while providing the most predictability by having a guaranteed, set interest rate that is locked in when you sign your contract. Along with administrative fees, these plans include surrender charges that you only pay if you withdraw early.

On the other hand, variable annuities and fixed index annuities are subject to market factors and hence carry more fees, including mortality and expense risk charges, investment expense ratios, and rate spreads.

Customization and Riders

If you’d like to add additional features to your annuity contract, this is possible through riders. For example, minimum withdrawal benefits allow a certain percentage of the principal to be withdrawn annually for the rest of your life, no matter how markets perform. 

There are also death benefits that, say, allow a new annuitant to be named in case of your premature death. Yet another rider increases the amount of payments to adjust for inflation. Each of these additional features adds costs to your contract, therefore lowering your payments.

Evaluating Annuity Costs: Is It Worth It?

As each annuity contract comes with its own fees, you’ll have to determine whether the costs are worth the benefits. A financial planner can help you make that determination. 

Investors and retirees like annuities because they provide another source of retirement income and are fairly predictable when they’re not tied to markets. But as these products become more complex and provide the potential for higher returns, the fees will become higher.

Consider your financial goals and appetite for risk when deciding between different annuities and their subsequent costs.

The Bottom Line

Annuities can provide an additional source of retirement income, but the fees insurance companies charge vary based on the complexity of the product and the total value of the contract. The agent who sold you the annuity will earn a commission, so be on the lookout if they’re directing you to a more complex product than you need. Commissions are typically built into the contract, and you do not pay for them directly. 

Before purchasing an annuity, evaluate the fees so you know how much you’ll be expected to pay. Consult a financial advisor if you need assistance.

The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Wednesday were New York, California, Texas, Virginia, Georgia, Minnesota, Ohio, and Tennessee. The eight low-rate states registered refi averages between 6.85% and 7.06%.

Meanwhile, the states with Wednesday’s most expensive 30-year refinance rates were West Virginia, Alaska, Hawaii, Arizona, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Kansas, Maryland, Montana, and Washington, D.C. The range of 30-year refi averages for the highest-rate states was 7.13% to 7.19%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages fell a bold 8 basis points Wednesday, pushing the average down to 7.09%—a strong improvement vs. the 7.32% May peak that was a 10-month high. Rates are now down to their lowest level in almost four weeks.

Back in March, however, rates sank to a 6.71% average, their cheapest 2025 mark. And last September, 30-year refinance rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Ciena (CIEN) shares tumbled nearly 14% Thursday after the networking systems company’s fiscal second-quarter profit fell short of analysts’ estimates.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.42 on revenue that jumped 24% year-over-year to $1.13 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $0.52 and $1.09 billion, respectively.

In Thursday’s earnings call, CFO Jim Moylan said the company’s adjusted operating expense of $369 million was “higher than expected, driven entirely by higher incentive compensation, associated with very strong order performance in the quarter and our overall financial performance in the first half of the year,” per a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

Moylan said the company expects tariffs to create a headwind of about $10 million per quarter going forward, most of which Ciena said it expects to be able to mitigate.

The CFO said that Ciena projects $1.13 billion to $1.21 billion in fiscal third-quarter revenue, above the $1.1 billion consensus. However, the company’s adjusted operating expense is forecast at $370 million to $375 million, well above the $356.0 million that analysts expect, which Moylan said is again due to the higher incentive compensation.

Ciena shares entered Thursday down 1% since the start of the year.

Shares of Winnebago Industries (WGO) fell sharply Thursday after the recreational vehicle maker posted preliminary fiscal third-quarter results below analysts’ estimates and said it is “aggressively modifying production schedules and adjusting headcount” due to weak motor-home demand.

In a press release issued ahead of the firm’s participation at the Baird 2025 Global Consumer Technology & Services Conference, Winnebago said for the third quarter ended May 31, it “expects net revenues of approximately $775 million, reported earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.55 to $0.65, and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.75 to $0.85.”

Preliminary Earnings Fall Below Analyst Estimates

Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were expecting revenue of $799.6 million, earnings per share (EPS) of $1.16, and adjusted EPS of $1.28.

“What began as an encouraging selling season in March was hampered by growing macroeconomic uncertainty, resulting in worsening consumer sentiment and an increasingly cautious dealer network in the final two months of our fiscal third quarter,” CEO Michael Happe said. “In this environment, we have maintained our posture of vigilant inventory management to ensure that production is aligned with current market demand and the needs of our dealer partners.”

Because of “market pressures” felt most acutely in the Winnebago Motorhomes business, Happe said the company has “initiated a range of strategic actions for the remainder of fiscal 2025 to reduce costs and improve profitability over the coming 2026 fiscal year, including aggressively modifying production schedules and adjusting headcount.”

Winnebago Industries shares were down nearly 7% in recent trading and have lost over 30% of their value this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its monthly jobs report on Friday morning, and investors will watch closely.

The May employment report is the government’s official measure of the labor market. If other measures from the private sector are any indication, Friday’s report could be a harbinger of tariffs’ effects on the broader economy.

Here’s what to know about the report ahead of its release.

What To Expect From the Jobs Report

According to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, economists expect the report to show 125,000 jobs were added in May. That would be a slowdown from the unexpectedly high 177,000 in April.

“While trade policy uncertainty declined after the U.S.-China trade deal, it remained very high across the payroll month,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs on Thursday. “Elevated uncertainty is likely to disproportionately weigh on employment growth in months when gross hiring is particularly elevated, such as May.”

Economists also expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, the same as last month. Over the last twenty years, it has averaged 5.8%.

How Has the Labor Market Been Holding Up?

Official government reports on the labor market have shown it has been surprisingly resilient to tariff pressures. Still, economists and private sector reports indicate a rough road ahead.

Economists predict that higher tariffs will cause companies to pull back on their highest cost—labor. That could mean fewer new jobs or layoffs.

Uncertainty around tariff policies has already caused businesses to hold off on investments like hiring, according to anecdotal reports. But so far, that hasn’t shown up in official government data. This week, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report found that employers had 7.4 million jobs open in April, up from 7.2 million in March. That was more than economists expected, though they warned that it is a lagging indicator.

Other, more-recent measures of the labor market show a grimmer picture. A report from payroll provider ADP found that private employers added the fewest jobs since March 2023, almost half compared to the month prior. Economists tend to shrug off that report, as it only measures a portion of the labor market.

President Donald Trump, however, wasn’t so quick to eschew the findings. In the wake of the report, he once again criticized the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates to boost the economy.

Why It Matters to President Trump and the Fed

If tariffs do slow down the labor market and raise the unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve may be pushed to cut its influential federal funds rate.

The Fed has held its rate at a historically high level this year as it waits to see how the tariffs will affect the economy. Central bankers are concerned that tariffs threaten both sides of their “dual mandate” to keep inflation low and employment high.

That inaction has drawn the ire of Trump, who wants rate cuts to boost the economy immediately. He has said that the central bank has been too slow to cut and should follow the lead of its counterparts in Europe.

Central bankers, for their part, are waiting to see if inflation or jobs are affected before making moves. If prices rise because retailers pass tariffs to consumers, the Fed would need to maintain high rates to stifle inflation. If the job market does suffer, central bankers would likely be inclined to cut rates to boost economic activity and hiring.