Archives May 2025

Inflation data, scheduled for Tuesday, may claim the spotlight early this week. But investors will also be evaluating the outcome of the weekend meetings between U.S. and Chinese trade officials after a quiet Friday session that left stocks down for the week.

Traders will also follow Thursday’s remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he comes under pressure from President Donald Trump over the Fed’s interest rate policy. And retail sales data will be closely watched on Thursday, the same day as retailer Walmart (WMT) reports earnings. 

Earnings releases from Cisco Systems (CSCO), Alibaba Group (BABA), Deere & Co. (DE), Applied Materials (AMAT), and video game maker Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are among the week’s other top scheduled results.

Consumer and small business sentiment surveys, along with homebuilder and manufacturing sector data, could also attract attention.  

Monday, May 12

• Monthly federal budget (April)
• Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler is scheduled to deliver remarks
• Simon Property Group (SPG), NRG Energy (NRG), Fox Corp. (FOX), and Monday.com (MNDY)

Tuesday, May 13

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (April)
• Consumer Price Index (April)
• JD.com (JD), On Holding (ONON), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), and Oklo (OKLO)

Wednesday, May 14

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to speak
• Sony Group (SONY), Cisco Systems, CoreWeave (CRWV), Dynatrace (DT), and Alcon (ALC)

Thursday, May 15

• Initial jobless claims (Week ending May 10)
• U.S. retail sales (April)
• Producer Price Index (April)
• Industrial production (April)
• Capacity utilization (April)
• Business inventories (March)
• Homebuilder confidence (May)
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Gov. Michael Barr are scheduled to speak
• Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Co., Applied Materials, Mizuho Financial Group (MFG), Take-Two Interactive, and Cava Group (CAVA)

Friday, May 16

• Import/export price index (April)
• Housing starts (April)
• Building permits (April)
• Consumer sentiment – preliminary (May)
• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak

Inflation, Retail Sales Reports Come As Investors Watch Data Amid Tariff Developments

The weekend meetings on trade between U.S. and Chinese officials are likely to capture market watchers’ attention to start the week, with investors hopeful that trade tensions between the two nations could be easing.

Inflation will be in focus as investors get their first look at April prices with the Tuesday release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). At last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, officials said they were looking for more improvement on inflation before moving to lower interest rates from their current levels.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday; last week, President Trump was critical of the Fed for failing to act on interest rates. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are among the other officials expected to deliver remarks this week.

March’s CPI report indicated that inflation dropped unexpectedly to a rise of 2.4%, while other recent indicators have shown that price increases are slowing. Investors are also expecting updates on import and export prices, as well as April’s Producer Price Index, which shows inflation at the wholesale level. 

Retail sales data, scheduled for Thursday, comes as consumer spending has been strong while shoppers rush to buy items before tariffs take hold. Economists are looking for signs of change in spending levels, with recent consumer sentiment surveys showing that feelings about the economy are worsening. 

On Friday, the latest sentiment report is expected to offer May’s first look at how consumers feel about current and future economic conditions. The survey offers insights into spending patterns that can help support the economy. It follows several months of surveys showing declining consumer sentiment amid worries over the administration’s tariffs’ impact on prices. Tuesday’s expected small business sentiment report could further signal the economy’s direction.

The homebuilders’ confidence survey, scheduled for Thursday, and Friday’s expected housing starts data, will highlight inventory supply trends during a period in which housing scarcity is helping drive affordability problems.

Investors will also be looking at Thursday’s scheduled industrial productivity report for data on the manufacturing sector. Monday’s planned release of the monthly federal budget for April will provide an update on government debt levels.

Walmart Earnings Come as Investors Watch for Consumer Spending Trends

Walmart’s scheduled quarterly report on Thursday leads the weekly earnings calendar, as market watchers seek information on consumer spending and economic conditions amid uncertain U.S. trade policy.

The retail giant reported prior-quarter earnings per share and revenue that came in ahead of analyst expectations, but its outlook was weaker than expected as the company said it was evaluating the impact of tariffs on its business.

Cisco is expected to report on Wednesday after the network infrastructure provider posted higher revenue in the prior quarter on increased AI orders and approved a $15 billion increase to the company’s stock repurchase program. Semiconductor maker Applied Materials’ report scheduled for Thursday comes after it said in its previous quarterly earnings report in February that sales could be negatively affected by recent limitations on chip exports.

Take-Two Interactive’s Thursday earnings report will drop as the video game maker builds excitement for its latest release in the Grand Theft Auto game franchise. Deere’s report on the same day will provide a look at the agricultural sector. 

Nuclear power startup Oklo’s report on Tuesday comes after it recently reported that its losses widened in 2024. Investors in the power provider include OpenAI’s Sam Altman, which has raised investor optimism that the company’s services could be used to meet energy demand for AI infrastructure projects.

Investors will also be following scheduled earnings reports from Chinese e-commerce companies Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent Music Entertainment.

This weekend could be a turning point for the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

U.S. and Chinese officials met in Switzerland starting on Saturday, and investors are optimistic about what could result. A thawing of the relationship between the two trading partners could provide some relief for businesses and consumers who have been bracing for higher prices and empty shelves.

“A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland,” President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social after the first day of negotiations ended. “Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.”

While no details of the negotiations have been released as they resume for a second day, here’s what we know about the discussions.

What’s the Status of the Trade Relationship?

The U.S. and China have been in a tit-for-tat trade dispute in recent weeks, resulting in high tariffs levied on both countries.

President Donald Trump has pushed tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. to 145%. In response, China’s government ratcheted up import taxes on U.S. goods coming to their country to 125%. Economists have said that duties that more than double the price of goods essentially amount to a trade embargo.

China is the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, according to the most recent data available from the Census Bureau. America has brought in more than three times the amount of goods from China than it exported there so far this year.

Who Is Involved in the Trade Talks?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will negotiate on the U.S.’s behalf.

Bessent has been vocal about the trade spat between the two countries, saying that the current tariff levels are “unsustainable” and that de-escalation was likely in the cards. In a press release announcing his trip to Switzerland, Greer said he would be “negotiating with countries to rebalance our trade relations to achieve reciprocity.”

For China, Vice Premier He Lifeng will spearhead the discussions. He is reportedly close to Chinese President Xi Jinping and is expected to toe the government’s official line. China’s Ministry of Commerce has said, “whether through confrontation or negotiation, China’s determination to safeguard its development interests will not change.”

Will a US-China Trade Agreement Be Reached?

While Trump said Thursday that he expects talks to be “substantive”, it’s unlikely the delegations will be able to hammer out a complete trade agreement over the weekend.

U.S. trade agreements take an average of 18 months to negotiate and often even more time to implement, so de-escalation of the tariffs would be more likely. On Friday morning, Trump suggested that tariffs on Chinese goods could be lowered to 80% but said he would leave the final number up to Bessent.

The two countries could also discuss other trade barriers, such as the de minimis exemption that Trump excluded China from last week, affecting Chinese bargain shopping sites like Temu and Shein.

Students graduating this spring are entering an uncertain labor market, but experts say there are ways to navigate it.

Many of those graduating in the coming weeks are more stressed than usual about finding a job after graduation. They are entering an unpredictable economy where some businesses report holding back on investments like hiring because of tariff policies.

If you are one of those graduates feeling unsure, here are four tips from experts that could help you secure a job.

Grow and Open Your Network

As grads enter the job market, a crucial step is to let their network know they are looking for work.

More than 70% of professionals are having a difficult time getting an interview or even getting their resume seen, according to Robert Half. In some cases, former coworkers, classmates, or mentors can connect grads with jobs that aren’t listed online yet, said Brandi Britton, executive director at the human resources consulting firm.

“Make sure that everyone that you know knows that you’re looking for work, whether it’s a professor, mentor, your parents, or your parents’ friends,” Britton said.

Be Flexible and Open to Jobs

Experts said graduates should be open to job opportunities, even if they don’t tick all the boxes.

Sam DeMase, job hunting site ZipRecruiter’s career expert, said that recent and soon-to-be graduates are encountering salaries that are significantly lower than what they expected and there is less remote work than they wanted.

“When you have an opportunity to interview, take it; you never know where that’s going to lead you,” Britton said. “It’s important to get your foot in the door, and then, as time progresses in that role, you can start to ask for more things like remote work or hybrid role, but really focus on getting that opportunity in the beginning and just be a little flexible right now.”

Consider Contract Work or (Another) Internship

About 40% of recent grads thought their internship would lead to a job. Yet, only 9.7% saw their internship turn into a full-time job, according to ZipRecruiter.

“Internships are not converting and not helping recent grads’ job plans the way they used to,” DeMase said.

Although an internship may not directly lead to a job, contingent work like internships and contract roles can still provide experience that some entry-level, full-time jobs require.

“A lot of times, what contract roles do is they give you exposure to industries that maybe you didn’t think of, or positions that you didn’t think of,” Britton said. “Because it’s a contract role, you’re getting to try it out.”

Emphasize Your Skills In The Interview

Being clear about how you will add value to the company you are interviewing at and potentially being up-front about your weaknesses, will likely make the decision to hire you easier for the interviewer, experts said.

“I think a lot of these rising grads and recent grads make the mistake of overstating why they want to work there, or why they want the job, and understating why they’re going to add value and how they’re going to add value,” DeMase said. “So just being really clear and saying, ‘I know you’re looking for someone who is a builder, and in my last role, I was able to build XYZ,’ or ‘In my internship, I innovated ABC.'”

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is slated to report fiscal third-quarter results after the market closes Wednesday, with earnings and revenue expected to tick up somewhat from a year earlier.

Analysts on average expect Cisco to report quarterly revenue of $14.06 billion, up more than 10% year-over-year, and adjusted net income of $3.66 billion, or 92 cents per share, up from $3.55 billion, or 88 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Of the 10 analysts following Cisco who are tracked by Visible Alpha, three have a “buy” rating for the networking-equipment provider’s stock, and seven maintain “hold” ratings. Their consensus price target near $67 would suggest 12% upside from the stock’s closing price Friday. Shares of Cisco have gained about 2% in 2025.

Analysts will also be watching Cisco’s artificial intelligence infrastructure orders. In February, the company said second-quarter AI orders exceeded $350 million, bringing its total to roughly $700 million for the first half of the fiscal year.

Analysts could also ask Cisco about the quantum computing chip it unveiled last week, which the company claims “could accelerate impactful quantum computing and networking applications from decades away to just 5-10 years.”

Americans haven’t stopped spending despite broad economic uncertainty. But a close look at recent data and trends has fed concerns about a slowdown. 

The unemployment rate is relatively low, and job creation is holding steady. Retail spending shot up 6.8% year-over-year in April, the National Retail Federation said, exclusive of car and gas purchases.

But Americans are increasingly uneasy, several measures suggest. Consumer sentiment fell in April for a fourth straight month, according to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Quick-service restaurants and companies selling everything from lunch to laundry detergent say their customers seem squeezed. And while credit and debit card spending ticked up 1% last month, according to Bank of America, there was a pullback in big splurges like trips and hotels.

Two releases set for Thursday will offer fresh data: Walmart (WMT) is slated to hand in its first-quarter numbers, and the government is scheduled to publish April retail data. Trade negotiations, notably with China, ahve contributed to the uncertainty: Widespread “reciprocal” tariffs are not slated to take effect for weeks, but the NRFthinks the threat of higher import taxes has spurred consumers to stock up on some items, juicing retail spending in April. 

“There’s a real inconsistency in the vibe,” said Max Levchin, CEO of buy now, pay later provider Affirm (AFRM), on CNBC Friday. “People are stressed out about the economy, yet they’re shopping. They’re buying, and they’re paying their bills.” 

Shoppers Look for Lower Sticker Prices

Oppenheimer analysts on Wednesday said Walmart has historically performed well in recessionary periods. Still, they acknowledged the current outlook can be hard to read.

“We have seen potentially mixed consumer data-points lately with still healthy consumer spending trends overall,” they wrote. “But at the same time, [there has been] more downbeat [consumer packaged goods company] commentary.”

Consumers have “a lot to process” and a reason to “pause,” Procter & Gamble (PG) CFO Andre Schulten said last month. The parent company of brands like Tide and Febreze recently downgraded its outlook for the full fiscal year. So did another consumer goods giant, Church & Dwight (CHD).

Americans are watching their tabs at Applebee’s and IHOP and cutting back at Wendy’s (WEN) and McDonald’s (MCD), executives recently said. At grocery and convenience stores, some shoppers are focusing more on sticker prices than the cost-per-serving, which has prompted Pepsi (PEP) and Mondelēz International (MDLZ) to offer smaller packages at lower price points, executives said last month.

“While two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits, we’re now seeing that we need to be below $4, and ideally below $3,” said Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelēz, which counts Ritz Crackers and Oreo cookies as parts of its biscuit category.

Demand hasn’t waned for international airfare or luxury clothing, companies said. Households with six-figure incomes have been flocking to Walmart’s delivery service in recent months.

“We’re seeing higher engagement across income cohorts, with upper-income households continuing to account for the majority of share gains,” CFO John David Rainey said this winter.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs could push inflation back to levels not seen since the post-pandemic price surge, according to an estimate from Goldman Sachs this week.

The sweeping import taxes President Donald Trump announced between February and April could have a seismic impact on the economy, and consumers could see it first at the checkout register. The tariffs could push annual inflation (as measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures) as high as 3.8% by December, the highest since 2023, Goldman economists estimated in a commentary published this week. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation rose 2.6% over the last year.

A wave of price increases could hit American consumers hard, especially if the job market slows down at the same time, as many economists have predicted. It would also be a setback for the Federal Reserve, which has kept its benchmark interest rate elevated since 2022 to suppress the post-pandemic surge of inflation.

Inflation has barely simmered down from around 3% at the beginning of 2024, but dipped significantly in March. Many economists predicted it would fade as the year went on, nearing the 2% goal by the end of 2025.

“I think the underlying inflation picture is good,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference this week following the Fed’s decision to keep its key interest rate flat.

“On the eve of the implementation of large tariffs, the inflation problem in the U.S. appeared solved,” Ronnie Walker and Elise Peng, economists at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a commentary. “However, in the coming inflation readings, the impact of tariffs will reverse that progress.”

Other economists were more pessimistic about the trajectory of inflation absent tariffs. In a commentary this week, economists at Deutsche Bank said that underlying inflation was stubborn and that “progress in trend inflation had stalled out somewhat even prior to the tariff.”

Whether inflation would have gone down without the tariffs will never be known. On Thursday, Trump announced a trade deal with Britain that kept his 10% tariff in place, suggesting that tariffs will be part of U.S. economic policy to some extent, even if other countries negotiate.

How Tariffs Could Push Up Prices (Or Not)

Walker and Peng’s analysis took into account the direct effects of tariffs, which are likely to be passed on to consumers, as well as several indirect effects. The trade wars have unexpectedly weakened the dollar, which hurts the buying power of American consumers.

On top of that, some manufacturers may shift production from China, which faces especially harsh tariffs, to places where things cost more to make. As a result, U.S. consumers will pay a lot more for things brought in from overseas, especially things like consumer electronics and clothing.

A reporter asked about potential price increases at an Oval Office press conference on Thursday, and Trump said businesses would not pass the cost of the tariffs on to consumers.

“Oftentimes the country picks them up, oftentimes the company picks it up,” Trump said. “The people won’t pick that up.”

Goldman forecasters estimated companies would pass 70% of the tariff costs on to customers.

Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares plunged 25% Friday, a day after the struggling silicone carbide chipmaker’s revenue declined and its loss increased as sales at its Materials Products unit fell. In addition, the company added two new board members as it works to deal with its debt.

Wolfspeed reported fiscal third-quarter revenue dropped nearly 8% year-over-year to $185.4 million, missing Visible Alpha estimates. It posted an adjusted loss of $0.72 per share, $0.10 per share wider than a year ago.

Materials Products segment revenue tumbled 21% to $77.9 million. Revenue at its Power Products division was up 5% to $107.5 million.

Chair Tom Werner explained that Wolfspeed has made significant progress in its efforts in “strengthening our capital structure, improving our path to profitability, and raising cost effective capital to support our growth plan.” Werner added that the company is continuing to work closely with its lenders “on ways to address our capital structure so that Wolfspeed has a strong financial foundation to support its continued success.” 

The semiconductor firm was already struggling when Werner, then the outgoing interim Executive Chair, warned in March that Wolfspeed may not realize up to $750 million in grants plus $1 billion in tax credits from the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. That sent shares cratering.

In a press release separate from the financial report, Werner announced that Paul Walsh and Mark Jensen were appointed to the board. Werner explained that the two bring experience in dealing with lenders that “will be critical to our efforts in reaching an outcome that will support our long-term success.”

Shares of Wolfspeed have lost half their value this year. 

Shares of Monster Beverage (MNST) rose to an all-time high Friday, a day after a positive outlook from the energy drink maker overcame a surprise drop in sales.

Co-CEO Hilton Schlosberg said during the firm’s earnings call that April “was a really robust month,” according to an AlphaSense transcript. Co-CEO Rodney Sacks added the company estimates that on a foreign currency adjusted basis, last month’s sales were nearly 17% higher than in April 2024, and 18% higher on a foreign currency adjusted basis, excluding the Alcohol Brands segment.

Those comments offset Monster’s first-quarter results, which Schlosberg noted were “impacted by a number of headwinds.” Revenue slid more than 2% to $1.85 billion, while analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for an increase to $1.98 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 was one cent below forecasts.

The company said the sales decline was caused by “bottler/distributor ordering patterns in the United States and EMEA, adverse changes in foreign currency exchange rates, decreased sales in the Alcohol Brands segment, adverse weather, one less selling day in the 2025 first quarter, as well as uncertain economic conditions.”

In sales by segment, Monster Energy Drinks slipped almost 1% to $1.72 billion, Strategic Brands lost 9% to $98.3 million, and Alcohol Brands plunged 38% to $34.7 million. The unit known as Other, which primarily consists of its American Fruits and Flavors subsidiary, showed a sales gain of 8% to $6.0 million.

Monster Beverage shares were up 2% to $61.34 in recent trading after earlier hitting a record $61.83. They have increased about 17% this year.

The Weekly Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates. Yesterday’s reading was flat at 6.76%, after dipping from 6.83% over the previous two weeks. Last September, the average sank as far as 6.08%. But back in October 2023, Freddie Mac’s average saw a historic rise, surging to a 23-year peak of 7.79%.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from what we report for 30-year rates because Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates. In contrast, our Investopedia 30-year average is a daily reading, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. In addition, the criteria for included loans (e.g., amount of down payment, credit score, inclusion of discount points) varies between Freddie Mac’s methodology and our own.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its third meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With five more rate-setting meetings scheduled this year, that means we could see more rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

After falling a tenth of a percentage point over the previous two days, 30-year refinance rates ticked up ever so slightly Thursday—adding 2 basis points to average 7.08%. That’s still an improvement vs. mid-April, when a five-day surge pushed rates to 7.31%—their most expensive level since July 2024.

But given that 30-year refi rates fell as low as 6.71% in early March, today’s rates are elevated. The current average is also more than a percentage point above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.

Rate movement was mixed for other refi loan types. The 15-year and 20-year refi averages inched up 1 and 4 basis points, respectively, while the jumbo 30-year refinance average subtracted 2 points.