Tesla shares jumped Friday, extending their recent rally after CEO Elon Musk said he would spend more of his time focusing on Tesla, as the Trump administration moved to loosen rules around self-driving cars.
The move would benefit Tesla, which has long touted autonomous cars as central to its growth prospects.
Musk said during the company’s earnings call Tuesday that Tesla expects to be selling fully autonomous rides in Austin, Texas, in June, with that business expanding to other cities this year.
Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped Friday, extending their recent rally after CEO Elon Musk said he would spend more of his time focusing on Tesla, as the Trump administration moved to loosen rules around self-driving cars.
The stock was up over 6% in recent trading, making it one of the top-performing stocks on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Friday. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s market action here.)
The Trump administration said Thursday it would loosen rules governing autonomous vehicles, in an effort to help U.S. firms compete with Chinese rivals.
“This Administration understands that we’re in a race with China to out-innovate, and the stakes couldn’t be higher,” U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean P. Duffy said in a release. “As part of DOT’s innovation agenda, our new framework will slash red tape and move us closer to a single national standard that spurs innovation and prioritizes safety.”
The move would benefit Tesla, which has long touted autonomous cars as central to its growth prospects. Musk said during the company’s earnings call Tuesday that Tesla expects to be selling fully autonomous rides in Austin, Texas, in June, with that business expanding to other cities this year and becoming financially material in the second half of 2026.
Tesla shares have been rallying since the call, as investors focused on Musk’s pledge to spend more time at Tesla, and the company’s plans for a cheaper model and fully self-driving vehicles, rather than its weaker-than-expected results.
With Friday’s gains, shares have added about 15% this week. Still, the electric vehicle maker’s stock has lost nearly a third of its value since the start of the year.
U.S. equities were mixed at midday as the market renewed its focus on the possible impact of new tariffs.
T-Mobile US added fewer phone customers than expected, and shares dropped.
Alphabet’s strong search and advertising growth helped the tech giant to beat profit and sales estimates.
U.S. equities were mixed at midday as the markets continued to weigh the potential impact of tariffs. The Nasdaq gained and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) shares tumbled after the cellphone service provider added fewer wireless customers than analysts had been looking for. In addition, the CEO warned that customers would have to cover the costs if new tariffs increased phone prices.
Shares of Intel (INTC) declined when the chipmaker gave a disappointing current-quarter outlook, pointing to “elevated uncertainty” in the industry.
Avantor (AVTR) shares sank to their lowest level in five years after the maker of lab chemicals and other life sciences products missed sales estimates, cut its guidance, and announced its CEO was leaving.
Alphabet (GOOGL) shares advanced when the tech giant reported better-than-expected results on solid growth in its search and advertising businesses.
Shares of VeriSign (VRSN) jumped as the internet services provider’s sales gained on increasing demand for domain registrations.
Charter Communications (CHTR) shares rose after the cable and internet services firm beat sales estimates and added more mobile line subscribers than anticipated.
Gold futures declined. Oil futures were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped. The U.S. dollar climbed versus the euro, pound, and yen. Prices for most major cryptocurrencies were higher.
Every Thursday, Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates. This week’s reading dipped 2 basis points to 6.81%. Last September, the average sank as far as 6.08%. But back in October 2023, Freddie Mac’s average saw a historic rise, surging to a 23-year peak of 7.79%.
Freddie Mac’s average differs from what we report for 30-year rates because Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates. In contrast, our Investopedia 30-year average is a daily reading, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. In addition, the criteria for included loans (e.g., amount of down payment, credit score, inclusion of discount points) varies between Freddie Mac’s methodology and our own.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
Important
The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.
But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.
Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.
But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.
For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.
Select foreign stock markets will provide some of the best investment opportunities.
Hello, Reader.
Job loss. School rejection. Failed business. Cancelled plans.
These setbacks are often remedied by encouraging phrase, “When one door closes, another one opens.”
But when it comes to investing, I like the alternative phrase…
When one door closes, a window opens.
That’s because, sometimes, being a smart investor means looking for opportunities where the crowd is not. While everyone is waiting for a closed door to open, it’s much better to look for the unexpected window.
The dot-com bust is a perfect example. After the rise of tech stocks in the early 2000s, the internet-based stock market experienced a dramatic collapse. Valuations soared, tech companies went out of business, and investors faced steep losses.
In other words, the door on tech stocks slammed shut.
But I was publishing investment research throughout the dot-com boom and bust. And with few exceptions, my most successful recommendations during the bust phase were non-tech stocks with low valuations…
Where an investment “window” opened.
Just as it was possible to make money during the dot-com bust of the early 2000s, it will be possible to do so this time around… especially during the current administration. We investors simply cannot know exactly which doors it will close, which it will open, and how long they’ll stay that way.
And if the current market environment “rhymes” with the dot-com bust phase of the early 2000s, then, I believe that the next “window” of opportunity lies in select foreign stock markets.
That is why in today’s Smart Money, I will detail why two lowly valued, foreign stock markets will provide some of the best investment opportunities right now… and how you can get in on them.
Let’s dive in…
A Window to South America
The two countries I’ve been looking at are Argentina and Brazil. And as it turns out, they are also among the ones with the world’s lowest stock market valuations.
To the extent that global consumers avoid American products in response to President Trump’s tariff regime, these two countries could benefit.
Here’s why…
Broadly speaking, both Argentina and Brazil sustain themselves by exporting agricultural and natural resource products to the rest of the world. Fortunately for them, Trump’s new tariff regime assigned the minimum 10% duty to their U.S. imports.
But even that “baseline” duty could disappear quickly, once the administration takes a breath and examines its new tariff policy country-by-country. For example, many of the products we import from South America are products that we cannot produce for ourselves, no matter what the tariff levels might be.
We cannot grow coffee, cocoa, or cashews in the continental U.S. Nor can we grow large, commercial volumes of tropical fruits like mangoes, guavas, or bananas. Placing a duty on products like these does not protect any domestic industries, it simply increases prices at the grocery store.
Additionally, most countries in South America are major exporters to both China and the U.S. Therefore, to the extent that the world’s two largest economies reduce their bilateral trade, countries like Argentina and Brazil could attract additional demand from both of them.
For example, China might choose to buy soybeans from Brazil, wheat from Argentina, and copper from Chile, at the expense of American producers. Brazil also produces commercial jets, which China might soon prefer buying to the ones The Boeing Co. (BA) produces.
The list goes on and on.
A monster trade war between China and the U.S. could also deal a punishing blow to the economies of both fighting countries, while “non-combatants” like Argentina and Brazil benefit.
Here’s how I’m taking advantage of this “window” of opportunity…
Finding the Right Foreign Stocks
After President Trump announced his new tariff regime early this month, I recommended a course of action to Fry’s Investment Report subscribers: “Buy Brazil.”
As I mentioned, because Brazil lies far away from the front lines of this new trade war, and because it is uniquely equipped to export a wide range of products that the entire world desires, it could become a major new “swing producer” in various industries.
But even without that “bonus” business, continuing Brazilian economic growth should enable Brazilian stocks to deliver a world-beating performance.
Brazilian GDP grew a solid 3.4% last year, thanks largely to strong domestic demand. A tight labor market enabled consumer spending to power strong economic growth. Employment growth remains strong, at the same time that export growth could re-accelerate.
To capitalize on this opportunity, I recommended an ETF that invests in a broad range of Brazilian companies to my Fry’s Investment Report portfolio. This play is already up around 10% in the few weeks since I recommended it.
But my focus isn’t just on South America. I also found an “opportunity window” with our neighbor to the north. It’s a Canadian luxury and lifestyle brand that has increased nearly 20% since I made my initial recommendation in early April.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved slightly from preliminary April results, but the surveys still showed that consumers have their worst feelings about the economy since July 2022.
The decline in sentiment abated somewhat after President Donald Trump announced an April 9 pause in some tariffs, though the report showed several warning signs for the economy.
Inflation expectations remained at the highest recorded levels since 1981, as consumers still expect price increases to come from the ongoing trade disputes.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ended April with a 52.2 reading, better than the preliminary reading of 50.8 that the survey showed two weeks ago. The results surprised economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, who expected no change in the month’s final survey.
The survey, which is conducted over the course of the month, showed improvements after Trump paused his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days. However, the April results were still the lowest since July 2022 and down 32% from last year.
“Consumers expressed intensifying unease about economic policy developments,” said Consumers Surveys Director Joanne Hsu. “The announcement was not enough to settle consumers’ concerns over the potential impact of trade policy on the economy.”
Hsu said the pause helped soften pessimism over inflation expectations, as it improved slightly from earlier in the month. However, the readings were still historically high. Consumers expect inflation to reach 6.5% over the next year, the highest since 1981.
Sentiment In Focus Amid Tariff Policy Announcements
Analysts and economists have been closely watching consumer sentiment readings since Trump’s tariff talk began.
Optimism has sharply declined since January. Economists attribute much of the plunge to Trump’s on-again, off-again trade policies that began soon after his inauguration. With about two-thirds of the economy relying on consumer spending, economists follow sentiment surveys to indicate whether nervous shoppers may start spending less.
“Most concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipate weaker income growth in the year ahead,” Hsu said. “Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain robust amid the numerous warning signs noted by consumers.”
Continuing an April yo-yo pattern of surging, falling, and rising back up, 30-year refinance rates have once again reversed course. Subtracting a notable 8 basis points Thursday, the flagship refi average has declined two days in a row and is down to 7.14%. That’s better than April 11, when a week-long surge pushed the average to 7.31%—its most expensive level since July 2024.
But given the 30-year refi average fell as low as 6.71% in early March, today’s rates are still elevated. The 30-year refi average is also around 1.1 percentage points above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.
Several other refi loan types also dropped on Thursday. The 15-year and 20-year refi averages subtracted 5 and 10 basis points, respectively, while the jumbo 30-year refi average fell 9 points.
National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates – Refinance
Occasionally some rate averages show a much larger than usual change from one day to the next. This can be due to some loan types being less popular among mortgage shoppers, such as the 10-year fixed rate, resulting in the average being based on a small sample size of rate quotes.
Important
The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.
Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always wise to shop around for your best mortgage refinance option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because any number of these can cause fluctuations at the same time, it’s generally difficult to attribute any single change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.
But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.
Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.
But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.
For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.
The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates Thursday were New York, Washington, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, California, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The eight states registered averages between 6.80% and 6.97%.
Meanwhile, the states with the highest Thursday rates were West Virginia, Alaska, Kentucky, Washington, D.C., Maine, Alabama, Maryland, and North Dakota. The range of averages for these states was 7.03% to 7.09%.
Mortgage rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.
Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.
Important
The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.
National Mortgage Rate Averages
Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages have fallen 8 basis points over the past two days to a 6.99% average—halting a previous four-day climb. Earlier this month, rates surged 44 basis points in a week, shooting the average up to 7.14%—its most expensive level since May 2024.
Last month, in contrast, 30-year rates sank to 6.50%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 5.89%.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.
But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.
Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.
But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.
For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.
In investing, the phrase “this time is different” is dangerous. It leads people to ignore historical precedents and patterns.
But the last time tariffs overturned the stock market was 1930, when the Smoot-Hawley law was enacted.
In 1930, the television hadn’t been invented, nor the multiple streaming services on devices that we all now carry in our pockets.
In 1930, bad market news traveled by telegraph. Now, one tweet from President Donald Trump can send the market soaring or crashing in a matter of minutes.
So, it’s difficult to ignore the idea that “this time is different.” Our fast-paced, interconnected world operates completely differently from the 1930s economy.
The tariff drama roiling investors could still end in an economic disaster, like it did in 1930. Or, it could resolve in coming months, allowing the markets to resume the kind of upward trajectory we saw in 2023 and 2024.
No one has a crystal ball, tarot cards, or anything else that can tell them exactly what’s going to happen.
That’s why global macro investing expert Eric Fry is expecting the best while preparing for the worst – and I’m going to share his thinking and some of his picks with you today.
Fast Changes and Uncertain Outlooks
The last month has seen extreme swings in investor sentiment. That’s illustrated below by looking at the market’s “fear gauge,” the VIX. The market has been volatile since Inauguration Day, but the fear ratcheted higher since Trump’s tariff announcement on “Liberation Day.”
This past week has been especially volatile, as the market dipped after Trump tweeted he would like to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not enacting interest rate cuts quickly enough. A few days later, many of the losses were recovered when Trump said he had “no intention” of firing Powell.
One could get whiplash trying to track the markets moves so quickly.
Earnings reports that have come in this week haven’t provided much clarity. Even positive earnings reports are accompanied by uncertainty.
We’ve seen several big companies such as American Airlines, Southwest, Proctor & Gamble and Pepsi admit in forward looking guidance that they don’t know what’s coming. Here was a headline typical of the reports this week.
PepsiCo CEO Ramon Lagurta said in a statement, “As we look ahead, we expect more volatility and uncertainty, particularly related to global trade developments, which we expect will increase our supply chain costs,”
How Should Investors React?
In his most recent weekly issue of Eric Fry’s Investment Report, analyst Thomas Yeung notes that Eric is playing it straight, preparing for whatever comes next.
In our best-case scenario, the danger of a great recession (or depression) passes us by entirely. Trump’s tariff wars are resolved, leaving us with no major impact on inflation, supply chains, or long-term investor confidence. Instead, we’ll see enormous leaps in artificial intelligence, energy innovation, and biotech sending markets to new all-time highs.
We might also benefit from the re-onshoring of high-tech industries like advanced chipmaking and solar panel production.
In this case, we’re sitting on one of the decade’s greatest moments to invest. The recent selloff now puts the S&P 500 at just 18X forward earnings. Prices must rise 37.3% just to reach median levels and 65% to retake December’s mark. (That also ignores even greater upside in individual stocks.)
It’s easy to see why so many retail investors remain bullish on stocks.
But what if this time isn’t different and we face a trade war disaster like we saw in the 1930s?
Back to Tom:
In this case, a lot can go wrong. Perhaps the president will misjudge the inflationary impact of the current 125% tariffs on Chinese goods. That would force the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten rates… triggering a showdown with President Trump. (On Monday, U.S. stocks fell around 3% over fears that Donald Trump could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.)
Meanwhile, a lack of confidence is brewing. One in four auto loans are now underwater… consumer confidence is sitting at 12-year lows… and all this is happening while Wall Street predicts record earnings this quarter.
If these lofty Street expectations are missed, we’re looking at a “Wile E. Coyote” market where prices are running ahead without any fundamentals beneath their feet.
Since no one knows how this will resolve, Eric is preparing for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best.
How to Play the Best-Case Scenario
Eric still believes in the AI megatrend and has picks in his portfolio that he believes will continue to grind higher. In the best-case scenario listed above, Eric likes Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Recommended in early March, it’s a great illustration of a company that has been on a wild ride since the tariffs were announced.
Here Eric on AMD when he recommended it on March 7.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is a leading supplier of cutting-edge computer processors, and it has become a major player in many facets of AI technologies. Generally speaking, business is booming, but the company’s share price is not. This disconnect is creating a great investment opportunity.
AMD has been so successful at generating strong profit growth, and at expanding its market share in key markets, that it has become what I call a “brown bag” buy.
As I explained in my initial “Buy” alert last week…
If we pulled a brown bag over its logo, so that we did not know the company’s identity, nor had any idea what products it produces, the company’s raw financial performance would strongly tempt us to buy the stock.
But since we do know AMD’s identity, we know that it competes directly against Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) in an industry that is brutally competitive and deeply cyclical. Because of factors like these, investors have been dumping AMD stock for months, despite the company’s superb operating performance and bullet-proof balance sheet. The stock hit an all-time high of $213 a share exactly one year ago, and has tumbled more than 50% since then.
But down here around $100 a share, AMD has become too compelling to ignore.
A Stock to Play the Downside
Two weeks ago, I highlighted luxury brand Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS), as a new pick from Eric. If you’re not familiar with the name, GOOS is a global performance luxury and lifestyle brand like Patagonia and North Face. They manufacture and sell a range of outdoor sportswear like parkas, puffers, rain jackets, and hoodies – both for genuine outdoor adventurers and for urban chic wannabes.
This brand can withstand the trade war since it exports its goods to the U.S. duty-free. Under the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) President Trump signed during his first term, the U.S. levies no tariffs on apparel and textile exports from Canada to the U.S.
The stock is up a nice 15% since Eric picked it in early April.
We’re all waiting for a resolution to the tariff push, but until then, stick to your investing plan.
For Eric and his Investment Report readers, that means picking select stocks in the AI Megatrend, and stocks that can find themselves profiting despite tariff measures.
Eric has his finger on the pulse of a new project from Elon Musk that could make all the difference in the race to AI Dominance. You can learn more about the plan here.
Enjoy your weekend,
Luis Hernandez
Editor in Chief, InvestorPlace
P.S. Beijing’s plan to strike back at Trump goes far beyond tariffs.
China is putting a master plan in action that could lead to the end of American global leadership. But even though the media is focusing on Trump’s tariffs as his weapon of choice… Elon Musk is working on a secret project that could secure America’s dominance for years.
The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Thursday were New York, California, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, Colorado, Connecticut, Tennessee, and Washington. The nine states registered averages between 6.92% and 7.08%.
Meanwhile, the states with the highest Thursday refinance rates were Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and South Dakota. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.23% to 7.25%.
Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.
Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.
Important
The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.
National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages
Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages have dipped 11 basis points over the last two days, a change in direction after a four-day climb. The national rate average is now down to 7.14%. Earlier this month, 30-year refi rates surged a dramatic 40 basis points in a week and hit an April 11 reading of 7.31%—their highest level since July 2024.
Last month, in contrast, the 30-year refinance average sank to 6.71%, its cheapest level of 2025. And back in September, rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.
But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.
Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.
But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions on November and December.
For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.
Intel shares plunged Friday after the company’s quarterly revenue forecast missed analysts’ expectations.
Jefferies analysts said they plan to “sit on the sidelines” while new CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround plan develops.
Bank of America analysts said they believe Tan is taking the “right actions,” which include reducing the size of Intel’s workforce to cut costs.
Intel (INTC) shares tumbled Friday after the company’s quarterly forecast missed expectations, despite stronger-than-expected results for the first quarter.
The stock slid about 7% to $19.98 in recent trading, and has lost over a third of its value in the past 12 months. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s market action here.)
Jefferies said, “there aren’t many bright spots to point to” for the struggling chipmaker, which is moving forward with a turnaround effort led by CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over in March. “It will take a long time for Lip-Bu to put his stamp on INTC,” the analysts said, adding “we’ll continue to sit on the sidelines until we have a better vision of the turnaround.” Jefferies maintained a “hold” rating and $23 price target for the stock.
Tan said Thursday that “there are no quick fixes,” and that he is “taking swift actions to drive better execution and operational efficiency,” including plans to further trim Intel’s ranks.
Bank of America analysts said they believe the new CEO is taking the “right actions.” However, the company’s large size, unprofitable foundry arm, and strong roster of competitors like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) “make it tougher to turn things around in the next few years,” they said. The bank kept its “neutral” rating and $23 target, but lowered its earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.
Citi and Wedbush analysts also issued neutral ratings, with price targets of $21 and $19, respectively.
