Archives April 2025

Back in late 1994, tech company Netscape launched its web browser to the world. And no one knew it at the time, but that moment sparked what would become the most explosive investment boom in modern history…

Over the following four years, from late ‘94 to ‘99, the Dot-Com Boom gave early investors the chance to become millionaires… even billionaires. Just look to Stripes founder Ken Fox. Alongside Walter Buckley and Pete Musser, Fox became a ‘paper billionaire’ by investing in B2B e-commerce companies during this profitable era. 

Though, massive paydays weren’t just reserved for early investors. It turns out that it didn’t matter if you were in the market on Day One.

In fact, the biggest gains actually came during the Dot-Com Boom’s second half.

How Today’s AI Boom Mirrors the Dot-Com Era – And What It Means for Investors

See: Cisco (CSCO), the poster child of this boom. 

As the world rushed to build out our modern internet infrastructure, the networking solutions provider saw demand for its equipment soar. The stock became a massive winner. 

From early 1995 to summer 1997 – early in the Dot-Com Boom – CSCO rallied about 200%

But did you know that the majority of the company’s gains came in the ‘second half’ of that boom?

Between summer 1997 and late ‘99, CSCO went parabolic, soaring an absurd 800%. 

In other words, in the first two years of the dot-com era, Cisco stock tripled. Then, in its last few years, CSCO rose about 9X. 

It’s the same story with Viavi Solutions (VIAV), another networking solutions provider for the internet buildout.

In the Dot-Com Boom’s first half, from early 1995 to summer ‘97, that stock rallied an astounding ~500%. 

But from mid-97 to late ‘99, it absolutely skyrocketed – nearly 3,000%. 

Qualcomm (QCOM) followed a similar pattern. 

That stock doubled in the first half of this boom, between early 1995 to summer ‘97. Then, it soared more than 2,800% from summer 1997 to late ‘99. 

Lather, rinse, repeat for other massive internet stock winners of the 1990s like Semtech (SMTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Oracle (ORCL), Paychex (PAYX), Sanmina (SANM), etc. 

All were huge winners in the Dot-Com Boom. And all produced their biggest returns later on in the game. 

Why? 

Not because of Netscape’s browser debut, but because of what came after…

Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, hinted at another round of Bitcoin purchases by the company, which has just become a reality.

Overall, Strategy is the largest institutional holder of the leading cryptocurrency. Saylor’s hint was very timely, as major players are actively buying up Bitcoin, further reducing the available supply of the coin

How many BTC has Strategy bought

Michael Saylor hinted at another Bitcoin purchase on Sunday, April 27 – a week after the company bought $555 million worth of BTC at an average price of $84,785 per coin. The purchase was later completed and announced on X by Saylor.

Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. Today, the giant announced the acquisition of an additional 15,355 Bitcoins worth $1.42 billion.

Thus, the company owns a total of 553,555 BTC, in which 37.89 billion was invested. It turns out that the average price of each coin purchased is $68,459.

This investment philosophy of the company has inspired other firms to adopt crypto. In particular, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has already acquired a combined total of more than 5,000 BTC in an effort to become a leader in promoting Bitcoin in Asia.

Large investors or so-called whales also continue to accumulate Bitcoin while the main cryptocurrency is below the psychological mark of 100 thousand dollars.

Investors’ wallets, which hold at least 1 million dollars in BTC, began to be actively replenished again from the beginning of April. During this period of time, their number grew from 124 thousand on April 7 to more than 137.6 thousand by April 26.

Beyond actually acquiring Bitcoins, Strategy is having a significant impact on the market, according to crypto analyst Adam Livingston. He noted that the company is “synthetically reducing Bitcoin issuance” by buying back half or more of the new supply from miners each month.

Miners now mine about 450 BTC per day, or roughly 13,500 BTC per month, while Strategy has purchased 395,155 BTC over the past six months. This is equivalent to buying more than 2,000 BTC per day, a figure that is much higher than the daily rate of new coins.

Here’s a quote from an analyst.

When Bitcoin becomes so scarce, accessing it will require paying a premium. Lending against Bitcoin will become more expensive. Bitcoin borrowing will become an elite business for states and corporate whales, and Strategy will control the sphere.

The Bitcoin supply shortage forecast suggests a sharp rise in BTC prices if Strategy can continue to ramp up its purchases amid rising demand for the digital asset among other large investors.

However, Strategy’s actions have their critics. They warn that the debt-based strategy of buying BTC could lead the giant to financial collapse in case of a prolonged bearish trend in crypto. It also increases systemic risks for BTC due to the high concentration of coins in the hands of a single player.

How does crypto help you make money?

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank), which manages the country’s $1.7 trillion sovereign fund, reported a $40 billion loss for the first quarter of 2025.

The main reason for such results is the falling share prices of US-listed technology companies.

By the end of 2024, Norges Bank also indirectly owned 3,821 BTC through its equity investments. This creates potential selling pressure on Bitcoin – especially against a backdrop of socio-political instability and the risk of economic recession due to a global trade war.

There is a possibility, although unlikely, that in such a situation Norges Bank may increase investments in crypto-related companies or purchase shares of cryptocurrency ETFs. In addition to stocks and bonds, Norges Bank invests in real estate, including retail, industrial, renewable energy facilities and logistics centers around the world.

As a reminder, Norway sold its entire central bank gold reserve by early 2004, when the price of gold was below $400 an ounce. Since then, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 stock index by 280 percent.

Stocks currently account for 71.4 percent of the fund’s total investments, so serious losses are possible if the trade war continues. Although so far everything is going towards the fact that the tough tariffs on imports by the U.S. government will be at least significantly softened.

Norges Bank’s investments generated $222 billion in profits in 2024, and its equity portfolio fell just 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025. According to CEO Nicolai Tangen, the Norwegian sovereign fund “mostly follows indices” – specifically the FTSE Global All Cap index.

While this index includes more than 7,100 stocks from both developed and emerging markets, it is based on market capitalization, leaving 65 percent of the portfolio in North American companies.

However, according to Norges Bank Deputy CEO Trond Grande, there is some room for active investment. Well, the share of shares of US-listed technology companies has been below the benchmark for the past 18 months.

Technically, it is unlikely that Norges Bank will be able to invest in spot Bitcoin ETFs without changing the fund’s mandate. However, increased investment in companies with large Bitcoin holdings seems possible.

Strategy’s strategy of actively accumulating Bitcoin is exacerbating the scarcity of coins in the market and setting a new trend for institutional investors. The more BTC ends up in the hands of corporate giants, the higher the potential value of the asset becomes. And although such purchases increase the concentration of risks, they simultaneously bring the crypto market closer to a new stage of maturity – the era of real scarcity and premium demand.

Shares of online health platform Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soared over 27% Tuesday afternoon after the company announced a partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to bring weight-loss drug Wegovy to its customers.

The companies said in a Tuesday statement that users will be able to buy a “bundled offering of all dose strengths of Wegovy® and a Hims & Hers membership” starting this week for $599 or more.

Hims & Hers had benefitted from selling compounded versions of popular weight-loss drugs when they were in a supply shortage, but the The Food and Drug Administration announced in February that Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy are no longer in a shortage. The FDA said it would give drug compounders until mid May before taking enforcement actions to prevent them from selling compounded versions of the medications.

Move Comes After Hims & Hers Said It Would Add Eli Lilly Weight-Loss Drugs

Earlier this month, Hims & Hers said it would add branded tirzepatide, the active ingredient for Mounjaro and Zepbound, to its platform. Eli Lilly said on the same day that it “has no affiliation” with Hims & Hers, and that Zepbound “can be prescribed by any licensed healthcare professional.”

With Tuesday’s gains, Hims & Hers shares have nearly tripled in value over the past 12 months. The telehealth provider is set to report first-quarter results next Monday.

After a month of ups and downs, 30-year refinance rates are once again in retreat. Subtracting 4 basis points Monday, the flagship refi average has declined 24 points in the last four days and is down to 7.01%. That’s better than April 11, when a week-long surge pushed the average to 7.31%—its most expensive level since July 2024.

But given the 30-year refi average fell as low as 6.71% in early March, today’s rates are still elevated. The 30-year refi average is also a full percentage point above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.

Many other refi loan types also dropped Monday. The 15-year refi average dropped 6 basis points lower, while the 20-year average ticked down 2 points. Jumbo 30-year refi rates, however, added 5 points after a dramatic decline of 24 points the previous business day.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates – Refinance
Loan Type	Refinance Rates	Daily Change
30-Year Fixed	7.01%	-0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed	6.62%	No Change
VA 30-Year Fixed	6.48%	-0.03
20-Year Fixed	6.83%	-0.02
15-Year Fixed	5.91%	-0.06
FHA 15-Year Fixed	6.07%	No Change
10-Year Fixed	5.61%	-0.99
7/6 ARM	7.34%	-0.17
5/6 ARM	7.28%	-0.25
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	7.02%	+0.05
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed	6.70%	-0.12
Jumbo 7/6 ARM	7.35%	No Change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM	7.38%	-0.03
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always wise to shop around for your best mortgage refinance option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations at the same time, it’s generally difficult to attribute any single change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

​XRP faces intense selling pressure, dropping 4.8% in 24 hours to $2.35 as bulls struggle to push past the $2.50 resistance. Daily trading volumes jumped 15%, signaling growing bearish momentum. On-chain data reveals deeper concerns: futures open interest plunged 50% since January to $3.9 billion, while $10.41 million in liquidations—mostly long positions—highlight eroding confidence. Analysts warn a fall below $2 could spiral prices to $1.20. Against this backdrop, Grok-3 AI analyzed XRP’s risk-reward profile and deemed it unfavorable for middle-class investors, recommending Rexas Finance (RXS) instead. Built to tokenize real-world assets like real estate and gold, RXS has surged 6.6x during its presale, with experts predicting 50x gains post-launch.  

XRP’s Bearish Momentum Intensifies

XRP struggles as prices plummet 4.8% to $2.35, with bears overpowering efforts to breach the $2.50 resistance. Trading volumes spike 15%, signaling mounting sell pressure. On-chain metrics paint a grim picture: futures open interest nosedived 50% since January to $3.9 billion, reflecting dwindling investor confidence. Over $10 million in long-position liquidations compound the bearish sentiment, while negative funding rates hint at traders betting against further gains. Analysts warn that losing the $2 support could trigger a 40% crash to $1.20. Despite Ripple’s recent legal clarity, the “sell-the-news” effect dominates, leaving middle-class investors questioning XRP’s stability. This uncertainty shifts focus to alternatives like Rexas Finance, which offers tangible asset-backed growth potential.

Transforming Global Asset Ownership

Rexas Finance bridges blockchain and tangible assets, enabling users to tokenize real estate, commodities, or art in minutes. Imagine a teacher in Mumbai owning a fraction of a Parisian apartment, earning passive income through blockchain-secured ownership. This innovation taps into multitrillion-dollar markets—real estate alone exceeds $300 trillion globally—democratizing access through fractional ownership. Rexas eliminates geographical barriers, letting anyone buy, sell, or trade tokenized assets with a click. The platform supports full or partial ownership, creating endless possibilities for investors seeking stable, real-world backed opportunities often absent in volatile cryptocurrencies like XRP.  

Powering the Tokenization Revolution

Rexas Finance equips users with tools to tokenize assets effortlessly. The RXS Token Builder simplifies creating compliant digital tokens, while the Launchpad lets projects raise capital directly from global investors. Estate, QuickMint Bot, and AI Shield streamline asset management, ensuring security and transparency. Built on ERC-20 standards, RXS integrates seamlessly across blockchains, backed by a CertiK audit guaranteeing smart contract reliability. Unlike XRP, burdened by regulatory uncertainty, Rexas prioritizes utility: 50% of its 1 billion tokens are allocated to public presale, rejecting VC control to empower everyday investors. With 458,948,954 tokens (91.79% of presale supply) already sold, RXS has raised $47.7 million, nearing its $56 million target.  

Why Rexas Finance Stands Out Now

Rexas Finance’s presale has skyrocketed from $0.03 to $0.20, fueled by its real-world asset model and $1 million ongoing giveaway. Listed on platforms with 100M+ monthly users—RXS gains unmatched visibility and credibility. The team confirmed a $0.25 listing price and 2025 launch, with Tier 1 exchange listings imminent.  A 750,000 RXS ($150k) purchase was executed by a major investor, aligning with recent accumulation trends. Analysts suggest this could foreshadow near-term volatility.  Analysts project RXS hitting $10+ post-launch, a 50x leap from current prices. Early buyers could see life-changing returns, especially with 22.5% of tokens reserved for staking rewards.  Middle-class investors cautious of XRP’s risks find a safer, high-potential alternative in Rexas. As the presale’s final stage closes, joining now secures tokens before they surge. With real-world assets digitized and global adoption rising, RXS isn’t just another crypto—it’s the future of inclusive investing. Miss this window, and you might miss the next blockchain revolution.

For more information about Rexas Finance (RXS) visit the links below:

Website: https://rexas.com

Win $1 Million Giveaway: https://bit.ly/Rexas1M

Whitepaper: https://rexas.com/rexas-whitepaper.pdf

Twitter/X: https://x.com/rexasfinance

Telegram: https://t.me/rexasfinance ​

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits. ​

Spotify (SPOT) shares sank 6% in premarket trading Tuesday after the Swedish audio streaming giant posted first-quarter profit that badly undershot estimates.

The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.07 euros ($1.22) on revenue that rose 15% year-over-year to 4.19 billion euros ($4.77 billion). Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had projected EPS of 2.13 euros, while Spotify last quarter said it expected Q1 revenue of 4.2 billion euros.

Monthly active users climbed 10% to 678 million and premium subscribers increased 12% to 268 million. Last quarter, Spotify guided for 678 million and 265 million, respectively.

For the second quarter, Spotify said it expects 689 million MAUs and 273 million premium subscribers.

“The underlying data at the moment is very healthy: engagement remains high, retention is strong, and thanks to our freemium model, people have the flexibility to stay with us even when things feel more uncertain,” Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said. “So yes, the short term may bring some noise, but we remain confident in the long-term story, and the direction we’re heading in feels clearer than ever.”

Spotify shares entered Tuesday having added a third of their value in 2025. According to Deutsche Bank analysts in a note last week, Spotify’s “ad-supported revenue is more exposed to digital advertising budget cuts, and the weakening dollar is an FX headwind to revenue, though less so for profitability given its costs skew toward USD.”

Written by the Market Insights Team

Liberals win, but no majority is a problem

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The Liberal Party was seemingly dead and buried in December last year. Yesterday, they won the federal election. Mark Carney, a banker with no prior experience as a Member of Parliament, is now Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister. Here are some key insights that emerged following the election results:

– With votes still counting, the Liberals are poised to form a minority government, while the Conservatives have significantly expanded their seats and voter base. Meanwhile, the NDP and Bloc Québécois suffered dramatic losses. 

– The Conservatives secured the highest number of votes in a federal election since 1988. 

– The NDP emerged as the biggest loser, with their seven-seat gain putting them at risk of losing party status. Back in 2015, the NDP came very close to forming government.

– Ontario, particularly the Greater Toronto Area, flipped to the Conservatives, who took 10 seats from the Liberals. 

– The 905-belt also shifted to the Conservatives. 

– Southeastern Ontario, a key region for the auto industry, followed suit. 

– The popular vote was nearly evenly split, with the Liberals edging out the Conservatives by just 1%. 

– After two decades, the Conservative leader lost his own riding to a Liberal candidate. However, he’s very popular in his own caucus and will likely go back to parliament.

– In Quebec, the Liberals gained 10 seats, aided by Justin Trudeau’s final days as Prime Minister, during which he focused on securing support and committing to significant long-term investments for the province. 

Canadians are not accustomed to a bipartisan system. Historically, government has been more diverse, making this minority government— with a strong opposition and a weakened NDP—a rare and complex scenario. This dynamic shift attention to the Bloc Québécois. Despite losing seats, their relative influence has grown, as the Liberals will now rely on their support to push legislation forward.

This outcome comes at a critical juncture for Canada; the economy faces mounting threats from U.S. tariffs, young Canadians grapple with concerns over housing affordability, productivity continues to lag across key industries, internal trade projects face hurdles due to a lack of unity between Quebec and the federal government, and as Canada confronts the trade war with the U.S., the urgency to diversify its economy away from U.S. reliance feels overdue. 

Since March 3rd, the USD/CAD has been dropping from 1.45 and has found a strong support level at 1.38. After the news of a likely Liberal minority win, the USD/CAD reacted to the upside, trading as high as 1.387.

U.S. growth prospects slashed

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The central question for both markets and the economy right now is not just what the underlying economy is currently doing, but what it’s likely to do next. The latter seems to be the most critical factor in shaping sentiment. At present, the U.S. economy appears relatively strong. The job market is solid, with people earning and spending steadily. Household net worth has declined but remains in decent shape. Both consumers and companies show low leverage, leaving the economy well-positioned to face the ripple effects of tariff shocks. Additionally, AI capital expenditure has been a key support for growth, reinforcing the stability of the economy in recent months.

Despite this, uncertainty looms large. Economists and analysts are slashing their prospects of economic U.S. economic growth.

Surveys repeatedly highlight uncertainty, and forward guidance continues to echo the same sentiment. The question remains: when will these challenges tip the economy into recession? For context, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report—a measure that’s been tracked since late 2004—shows the Business Conditions Index has seen only one larger three-month decline than the current one (-49.9), and that was during the COVID pandemic.

Another consideration is the frontloading of purchases, particularly in durable goods. This trend could sustain positive momentum for a few months, giving the illusion of stability. However, if this frontloading subsides, the market may enter a quieter phase, possibly followed by a sudden downturn—a scenario that has a reasonable chance of unfolding. This messy data, caused by frontloading, reflects the complicated dynamics at play.

The U.S. administration is stepping in to offer relief to the auto industry, according to the Wall Street Journal. The White House announced that auto manufacturers will receive refunds of up to 3.75% of the value of new cars in their first year. Following this auto-tariff news, the dollar has regained some ground but remains vulnerable amid concerns over weakening economic prospects.

Plenty of supporting factors for euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Expect EUR/USD to continue trading around $1.13 to $1.14 in the very near term. The worst case for EUR/USD is probably $1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. However, $1.15 could be achievable should any of this week’s job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs. The pair remains circa 10% higher year-to-date, well above long-term moving averages, with FX options traders eying $1.20 later this year.

Although the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates again, it also looks as though the June Federal Reserve meeting is live for a rate cut. That will provide underlying support for the euro and keep it on a medium-term path higher.

Meanwhile, European assets could also gain from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s optimism for lasting peace after discussions with President Trump.

Plus, global energy demand may decline due to the US recession threat, China’s economic slowdown, and OPEC+ rifts—factors favoring cheaper oil prices. Oil-producing nations face budget challenges amid lower crude prices, while net importers like Europe benefit from reduced energy costs in transportation and industry. As a result, Europe’s energy importer status positions the euro for potential additional support.

Oil drops 5% in a week

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: April 28- May 2

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quothave a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) surged in premarket Tuesday after the shipping giant’s first-quarter results topped analysts’ estimates.

UPS reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on revenue of $21.5 billion. Analysts had expected adjusted EPS to decline by 2 cents from a year ago to $1.41, while revenue was forecast to drop by about 3% to $21.1 billion.

“We will leverage our integrated network and trade expertise to assist our customers as they adapt to a changing trade environment,” UPS CEO Carol Tomé said. “Further, the actions we are taking to reconfigure our network and reduce cost across our business could not be timelier. The macro environment may be uncertain, but with our actions, we will emerge as an even stronger, more nimble UPS.”

The company said it will not provide any updates to its prior full-year outlook “given the current macro-economic uncertainty,” and said second-quarter forecasts will come on Tuesday’s earnings call. In January, UPS said it expected revenue of roughly $89 billion for the year, as it undertook several “business and operational changes” like cutting its shipping volume for Amazon (AMZN) by more than half by the second half of 2026.

Shares of UPS were up 5% soon after the results were released. They had lost more than 20% of their value on the year entering Tuesday. Earlier this month, shares hit their lowest point since mid-2020.

Oppenheimer cut its price target price for Amazon (AMZN) shares by 15%, predicting that tariffs would eat into the profits of the company’s e-commerce arm. 

Oppenheimer revised its relatively bullish target price of $260 down to $220—9% below the average estimate among analysts who track Amazon and are polled by Visible Alpha. Still, Oppenheimer analysts issued an “outperform” rating of Amazon stock in a research note Sunday, days before the company is scheduled to post its first-quarter earnings on Thursday.

Paying tariffs likely will result in lower profit margins on e-commerce sales as Amazon protects its market share by keeping prices competitive, the analysts said. They expect investors to remain satisfied with mid- to high-teens growth at AWS, Amazon’s cloud computing platform, “even if margins contract meaningfully” on the e-commerce side of the company, the note said.

Amazon Shares Sliding Along With Market Over Tariffs

Oppenheimer’s target is 16% above where Amazon shares closed Friday. Company shares have fallen nearly 15% over the course of 2025 amid a broad market sell-off spurred by tariffs. Amazon stock remains about 4% above prices a year ago. At close on Monday, the stock was off less than 1% at $187.70.

Analysts have curbed their estimates for Amazon in recent weeks, citing tariffs’ potential to weigh on e-commerce sales and advertising revenue. 

The company is scheduled to release its first-quarter results after the bell on Thursday. Analysts expect the company to report about $155 billion in revenue, up 8% year-over-year, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. They anticipate $14.7 billion in profit, a 41% jump from the first quarter in 2024, per Visible Alpha.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Data to drive dollar

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The US dollar continues wallow near 3-year lows against a basket of currencies. FX volatility has eased off from multi-year highs though as traders turn to US data – focused on gauging the real-world impact of tariff stress.

Recent tariff turmoil has eased, with the worst-case outcome averted for now. Still, global tariff levels remain far higher than pre-‘Liberation Day.’ Current measures include a 10% universal tariff and sectoral charges on key industries such as steel, aluminium, cars, and possibly pharmaceuticals, which could significantly impact the global economy. Even with the temporary 90-day suspension, these elevated tariffs risk pushing global trade conditions back to levels not seen in decades

The recent rally in equity markets appears vulnerable as hopes for a meaningful de-escalation between the US and China fade. The fragile optimism, driven by temporary easing in trade tensions, could face further headwinds if the dialogue stalls or tensions escalate again. This uncertainty may weigh on risk sentiment across global markets, keeping a lid on risky assets.

On the data docket, key releases include the first-quarter US GDP report and Friday’s April jobs report this week. GDP consensus sits at 0.4% q/q annualized, but expectations vary widely, shaped by front-loaded imports and optimistic investment trends.

Plenty of supporting factors for euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Expect EUR/USD to continue trading around $1.13 to $1.14 in the very near term. The worst case for EUR/USD is probably $1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. However, $1.15 could be achievable should any of this week’s job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs. The pair remains circa 10% higher year-to-date, well above long-term moving averages, with FX options traders eying $1.20 later this year.

Although the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates again, it also looks as though the June Federal Reserve meeting is live for a rate cut. That will provide underlying support for the euro and keep it on a medium-term path higher.

Meanwhile, European assets could also gain from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s optimism for lasting peace after discussions with President Trump.

Plus, global energy demand may decline due to the US recession threat, China’s economic slowdown, and OPEC+ rifts—factors favoring cheaper oil prices. Oil-producing nations face budget challenges amid lower crude prices, while net importers like Europe benefit from reduced energy costs in transportation and industry. As a result, Europe’s energy importer status positions the euro for potential additional support.

Resilient sterling in risk-on conditions

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

GBP/USD’s rose by around 1% on Monday, back above the $1.34 mark and near its highest rate in three-year highs, but upside momentum appears to be waning, pressured by a modest US dollar rebound and a cautious market mood.

The pound is also under pressure amid solid expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25% in May. Investors are paying close attention to Tuesday’s speech from BoE official Dave Ramsden. Should his tone lean dovish, it could add further downside to the pound in the near term.

Still, sterling is trading above most of its key long-term averages against many of its major peers barring the safe haven USD alternatives of the JPY, EUR and CHF. Against the euro though, sterling is back above its 21-day moving average in a sign of potential trend change beckoning to the upside.

GBP/EUR should remain supported if global risk sentiment stays sturdy given its higher beta to risk than the euro.

Oil down 4.5% in a week

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: April 28-May 2

All times are in BST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.