Archives March 2025

Target (TGT) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning, with analysts seeing substantial upside for the retailer’s stock.

Analysts’ ratings are split nearly evenly, with five “buy” and six “hold” ratings among the brokers who currently follow Target and are tracked by Visible Alpha. Their average price target of just under $145 suggests about 18% upside to Friday’s close and would put the stock back at late-January levels.

The retailer is expected to report revenue of $30.77 billion for the quarter and adjusted earnings per share of $2.26, down 3.6% and 24%, respectively, from the same time a year ago. At the same time, analysts expect comparable store sales to rise 1.39% year-over-year, a consensus figure that Morgan Stanley analysts noted this week has risen since Target lifted its comparable sales projection in January.

Analysts Expect Conservative 2025 Outlook, Question CEO Succession

Analysts from JPMorgan, Oppenheimer, and Morgan Stanley all said in recent notes that they expect Target will likely follow some of its retail rivals like Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) and remain conservative in their first-quarter and 2025 projections.

Despite a potential conservative 2025 forecast—and concerns over the impact of tariffs and inflation on discretionary spending—Oppenheimer analysts said they “continue to believe shares have bottomed” and said they would “take advantage of any volatility” after the report. They noted that Target shares have fallen after two of the past four earnings reports, with double-digit swings after four of the last five.

JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley analysts also raised the question of succession planning entering 2025, as CEO Brian Cornell recently passed 10 years in the top job. JPMorgan analysts said Cornell planned to stay for three more years as of September 2022, and said they believe an internal candidate to replace him is “most likely.”

Target shares are down about 18% over the last 12 months. They rose Friday, finishing the week a bit above $124 apiece.

Editor’s Note: This week has been volatile to say the least…

But if anything, that has me and my friends at TradeSmith even more fired up about the market ahead.

The fact is, we’re in a Mega Melt-Up. All the signs are there.

And if you make the right moves today, you’ll be set for a bull market that rivals the internet boom… while avoiding the inevitable bust.

TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan has some thoughts below on this week’s volatility… including how it’s convincing us even more that the Mega Melt-Up is on.

Read it below. And be sure to watch his biggest forecast in 20 years, in this brand-new special research presentation. He’ll also share 20 recommendations just for checking it out.

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The market has taken us on a wild ride in 2025.

Between Chinese AI breakthroughs, radical shifts in trade policy, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, and now a surge in inflation expectations, the headlines have been all over the place.

Stocks are acting as you’d expect – soaring one week, shaking out weak hands the next.

All this wild price action has ultimately not taken us far. As I write, the Nasdaq 100 is basically flat from the start of the year…

And that’s especially painful, considering the 5.7% year-to-date gain we were looking at just a week ago.

All this chaos can’t help but make you wonder, “Are we heading for a crash?”

If you google that question, you’ll probably find a bunch of mainstream media headlines urging you to stay scared.

But I’m here to tell you something quite different:

This isn’t the beginning of a bear market.

On the contrary, it’s the setup for one of the biggest opportunities of your lifetime.

We’re smack in the middle of what my team has taken to calling a Mega Melt-Up.

We’ve gone through history and quantified the price action of the past few years. And what we found, shocking as it was, tells us that there’s only been two previous market environments like this one: the 1990s and the 1920s. And both were periods where individual companies rose thousands of percent in very short order.

If our research is correct, and I’m confident it is, the volatility we’ve seen this year isn’t a warning sign.

Instead, it’s even more evidence that we’re in a Mega Melt-Up… the kind that only comes around once or twice in a lifetime.

More than a year after the first rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Fed since the pandemic, Australia has finally joined the global rate cycle by trimming borrowing costs in the country by a quarter point in late February.

The Pacific country is one of the last developed economies in the world to pivot on its interest rate stance. The lone exception remains Japan, which is, in fact, raising capital costs after decades of negative rates and inflation.

The quarter-point cut will bring Australia’s cash rate target to 4.10% and the interest rate paid on exchange settlement balances to 4%, a tab lower than the Fed’s current 4.25% rate.

In her policy decision statement, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock attributed the cuts to subsiding inflation, which has hit 3.2% in the latest report. She also mentioned continued “subdued growth in private demand,” as another key driver of the rate cut.

The latest quarter-on-quarter GDP report for the country came in at 0.3%, well below general expectations of a 0.5% increase. Year-on-year economic growth figures also disappointed, showing a 0.8% increase against a 1.1% expectation.

Despite the milestone move by the RBA, the market interpreted the news as a “hawkish” cut, as Bullock was quick to dampen expectations for deeper rate cuts in the next few meetings.

“The market is expecting quite a few more interest rate cuts in the middle of next year, about three more on top of this,” said Bullock in the news conference that followed the RBA statement. “Whether or not that eventuates is going to depend very much on the data. Our feeling at the moment is that that is far too confident.”

As a consequence, the market adapted its expectations for rate cuts in the country, pushing the Australian dollar upward against the US dollar, an unusual follow-up to a rate cut. “Interest rate swaps markets now price in fewer than two further rate cuts from the RBA this year, with the second of the cycle not fully priced until August,” explained David Scutt, an analyst at Forex.com.

American consumers are anxious about tariffs. The companies that serve them are, too, though not all of them are bracing for the worst.

Consumer sentiment in February took the biggest monthly hit seen in three years, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey, which showed that Americans are concerned tariffs will spur inflation.

Businesses are exploring how to protect their profits through supply chain changes and price increases, executives said during recent conference calls. While some consumer-focused companies worry tariffs will hurt business, others are confident they can handle—or even reap rewards from—higher import costs.

President Donald Trump said this week that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, beginning Tuesday. He also said the U.S. would raise a tariff on goods from China to 20% and has recently talked about adding tariffs to items from other regions, including the European Union.

Tariffs Would Lead to Price Hikes at Some Companies

Many companies said they’d raise at least some prices if tariffs were enacted—from the cosmetic company Sally Beauty (SBH) to Hamilton Beach Brands (HBB), which sells small household appliances. 

A number of businesses said they worked to blunt the potential blow by diversifying their supply chains. Steve Madden (SHOO) diminished sourcing from China by about 20% since the last quarter, CEO Edward Rosenfeld said. But selective price increases will still be necessary, he said.

Higher prices may not dramatically alter the outlook for some companies. Birkenstock (BIRK), which finishes its shoe assembly in Germany, has been able to raise prices without consequence in the past, CFO Ivica Krolo said on an earnings conference call last month.

“The good news here [is] that we have, historically, [had] the ability to take pricing action globally that offsets these inflationary pressures, including tariffs, without any impact on our business,” Krolo said, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense.

‘We’ve Been Through This Before’

Some large companies see their size as an advantage in navigating tariffs. Coca-Cola (KO) could rely more on plastic bottles than cans, CEO James Quincey said on an earnings conference call in February. He added that even if the company pays more for aluminum, it’s “not going to radically change a multibillion dollar U.S. business.”

Walmart (WMT) knows how to find value for consumers amid tariffs, executives said. So does Home Depot (HD), executive vice president of merchandising Billy Bastek said on an earnings call this week.

“We’ve been through this before,” Bastek said, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense. “With our scale, we feel that we’re as well or better positioned than anyone in the marketplace.”

Some Companies See Chance to Benefit

A few companies said they may even benefit from tariffs.

Roku (ROKU) doesn’t expect tariffs to impact its product margins. But they could raise the cost of “higher end” TVs, prompting people to move to less expensive options and driving up demand for Roku, said Mustafa Ozgen, president of devices, products and technology.

Newell Brands (NWL), which sells Yankee candles, believes tariffs present both headwinds and potential benefits. The company has ramped up its production capacity in the U.S., CEO Christopher Peterson said. This gives Newell an advantage over competitors—and potential clients—he said on an earnings call in February.

The company has been informing retailers it can quickly add manufacturing capacity in the U.S. “on a first come, first serve basis,” Peterson said.

Thanks to a very disappointing University of Michigan consumer sentiment report last Friday, the markets ended the week on a sour note.

To review, the report showed a reading of 64.7, down from 71.7 in January – a 10% decline. The stock market sold off sharply in response, with the S&P 500 and Dow falling 1.7% and the NASDAQ sinking 2.2%.

So, in Sunday’s Market Buzz YouTube video, my friend and colleague Jason Bodner joins me to discuss the numbers and this week’s key economic reports. But first, we begin by previewing a few stocks’ upcoming earnings – including NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), which will serve as the grand finale for earnings season. We take a closer look at the factors behind Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) 19% plunge and review Walmart, Inc.’s (WMT) cautious earnings guidance.

Plus, we share our thoughts on President Trump’s bold words on Ukraine and how they could impact peace talks with Russia, as well as the German election and what the outcome could mean for the global economic reports. 

You can click the play button below to watch now!

After you’ve watched the video, make sure to subscribe to my channel! Once you do, you’ll be able to click a small bell that will notify you once our videos become live.

To learn more about Jason and his Quantum Edge system, click here. His system has beat the S&P 500 7-to-1 over the last 30 years in independent testing and backtesting. I’m such a big fan of Jason that I included a few of his stories in my new book, The Sacred Truths of Investing.

And for my latest take on the stock market and big headlines, join me at Growth Investor. I released a Special Market Podcast this afternoon that covered today’s broader market pullback, the results of the German election and more.

Once you sign up, you’ll have full access to all my Special Market Podcasts, Weekly Updates and Monthly issues, as well as exclusive Growth Investor Buy Lists special reports (including three brand-new ones I published last week).

Click here for more details.

(Already a Growth Investor subscriber? Click here to log in to the members-only website.)

Sincerely,

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

P.S. My friend Keith Kaplan recently called a “mission critical” meeting over at TradeSmith. Why? It all has to do with an ultra-rare pattern has emerged in the markets that has only appeared three times going back 125 years…

As CEO of TradeSmith, he’s pounding the table to get everyone to pay attention. Because one of their time-tested algorithms just flashed “green” on 10 off-the-radar tech stocks that could deliver generational wealth. So, on Thursday, February 27th, he’s holding a special briefing – and you’ll be blown away by what he reveals. Click here to grab your seat for Thursday’s big event.

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) and Walmart, Inc. (WMT)

While insisting he is not eager to take the firm public, Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z (Andreessen Horowitz), has said he aims to build it into an enduring company.

On the Invest Like the Best podcast, Andreessen condemned the traditional venture capital partnership model, which he sees as flawed as it relies on a small group of founding father’s expertise and holds little lasting value once they retire.

To transition a16z from a traditional VC partnership model to a more structured, scalable business would involve adopting practices seen in long-lasting financial institutions, such as, J.P. Morgan and Blackstone—focusing on structured management, scalability, and long-term sustainability.

The goal, he explains, is to ensure a16z continues to operate and support founders across multiple generations—moving beyond the limitations of the traditional VC model, which relies heavily on individual partners. By doing this, Andreessen believes a16z would maintain its position as a leading investor and avoid the interpersonal conflicts that often plague partnerships.

Criticisms of the VC partnership model include: unrealistic growth expectations placed on startups, potential for misaligned incentives between founders and investors, a focus on short-term profits over long-term sustainability, pressure to make quick decisions that might not be in the best interest of the company, and the loss of control for founders due to giving up equity to investors; essentially, the model can incentivize rapid growth at the expense of a company’s long-term health and founder autonomy.

In 2019, Vinod Khosl, founding CEO of Sun Microsystems and founder of Khosla Ventures, told Sam Altman: “90% of VCs do not bring any value to startups, and 70% even harm them.” If they continue to chase the next billion-dollar unicorn, they miss opportunities to invest in more sustainable businesses, Khosla explained. By shifting focus from short-term gains and quick exits to long-term company building and sustainable growth for portfolio companies, VCs can support startups in achieving steady, manageable growth that aligns with their long-term vision. They can also broaden their investment criteria to include startups with various business models, not just those with the potential for explosive growth.

By shifting focus from short-term gains and quick exits to long-term company building and sustainable growth for portfolio companies, VCs can support startups in achieving steady, manageable growth that aligns with their long-term vision. They can also broaden their investment criteria to include startups with various business models, not just those with the potential for explosive growth.      

The full article continues below these offers from our partners.

Your Safe, Easy Options for a Top Cash Return

When it comes to earning a solid interest rate on savings, your options come in three main categories:

1. Bank and credit union products: Savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs)
2. Brokerage and robo-advisor products: Money market funds and cash management accounts
3. U.S. Treasury products: T-bills, notes, and bonds, in addition to I bonds

You can choose just one of these, or mix and match different products for different buckets of funds. In any case, you’ll want to understand what each product pays. We’ve laid out today’s top rates in every category and indicated the changes from a week ago.

Today’s Best Rates on Cash

Though many 4%-plus options are available right now, the highest return you can earn on your cash today is 5.00%, available as an 18-month certificate of deposit (CD) from Mountain America Credit Union. Though CDs require you to lock in your funds (generally charging an early withdrawal penalty if you cash out before maturity), the upside of the commitment is that your advertised rate is also locked in for the full term. So if you were to open Mountain America’s CD next week, your 5.00% APY would be guaranteed until September 2026.

If you don’t feel comfortable committing your funds, or prefer a different timeline for your savings, returns in the 4% range are still excellent, and you can earn that from a number of choices in the tables below.

Understanding Your Different Cash Options

Bank and Credit Union Products

Savings Accounts

The most basic option is a bank or credit union savings account—sometimes called a high-yield savings account—which lets you add and withdraw money as you please. But don’t assume your primary bank pays a competitive rate. Some banks pay virtually zero interest.

Fortunately, we make shopping for a high rate easy. Our daily ranking of the best high-yield savings accounts gives you 16 options paying 4.35% to 4.75% APY. Note, however, that savings account rates can change at any time.

Money Market Accounts

A money market account is a savings account that adds the ability to write paper checks. If this is a useful feature to you, shop our list of the best money market accounts.

If you don’t need paper check-writing, choose whichever account type—money market or savings—pays the better rate. The top money market account rate is currently 4.50% APY. Again, be aware that money market rates are variable, so they can be lowered without warning.

Certificates of Deposit

A certificate of deposit (CD) is a bank or credit union product with a fixed interest rate that promises a guaranteed return for a set period of time. Generally ranging from 3 months to 5 years, CDs offer a predictable return with a rate that cannot be changed for the duration of the term.

But beware that it’s a commitment with teeth: If you cash in before maturity, your earnings will be dinged with an early withdrawal penalty. Our daily ranking of the best nationwide CDs currently includes options paying up to 5.00% APY.

Brokerage and Robo-Advisor Products

Money Market Funds

Unlike a money market account at a bank, money market funds are mutual funds invested in cash and offered by brokerage and robo-advisor firms. Their yields can fluctuate daily but currently range from 4.00% to 4.25% at the three biggest brokerages.

Cash Management Accounts

For uninvested cash held at a brokerage or robo-advisor, you can have the funds “swept” into a cash management account where it will earn a return. Unlike money market funds, cash management accounts offer a specific interest rate that the brokerage or robo-advisor can adjust whenever it likes. Currently, several popular brokers are paying 3.83% to 4.00% APY on their cash accounts.

U.S. Treasury Products

Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds

The U.S. Treasury offers a wide array of short- and long-term bond instruments. Those with the shortest duration are Treasury bills, which range from 4 weeks to 52 weeks, while Treasury notes have a maturity of 2 to 5 years. The longest-term option is a Treasury bond, which has a 20- to 30-year maturity. Today’s rates on the various Treasury products range from 3.99% to 4.55%.

You can buy T-bills, notes, and bonds directly from TreasuryDirect or buy and sell them on the secondary market at brokerages and banks. Selling a Treasury product allows you to exit before the bond matures. However, you may pay a fee or commission for secondary market purchases and sales, while buying and redeeming at TreasuryDirect has no fees.

You can also buy Treasury ETFs, which trade on the market like a stock. Treasury ETFs have advantages and limitations, which you can read about here.

I Bonds

U.S. Treasury I bonds have a rate that’s adjusted every six months to align with inflation trends. You can redeem an I bond anytime after one year or hold it for as long as 30 years. Every six months you own the bond, your rate will change.

How We Find the Best Savings and CD Rates

Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs and savings accounts to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying accounts. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), and the account’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000. It also cannot specify a maximum deposit amount that’s below $5,000.

Banks must be available in at least 40 states to qualify as nationally available. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.