Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
US tariffs due on Tuesday
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stuck at recent lows on Monday as markets waited for news on the implementation of new US tariffs.
US president Donald Trump last week confirmed that his new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a new 10% tariff on China, would be launched at midnight, Tuesday, 4 March (EST).
However, markets are on edge, with previous announcements on trade being subject to last-minute delays or changes.
For now, the Aussie and kiwi have been pressured by these trade worries, with the AUD/USD down 0.4% on Friday and losing 2.2% over the week.
The NZD/USD was down 0.6% on Friday and lost 2.5% over the week.
We saw a similar story in Asia with the USD higher on trade worries. The USD/SGD gained 0.2% on Friday and climbed 1.3% over the week.
The USD/CNH slipped 0.1% on Friday but climbed 0.6% over the week.
EUR/USD hit by Ukraine worries, but euro gains in other markets
The EUR/USD fell sharply on Friday due to growing tensions between US president Donald Trump and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the euro has been stronger in other markets.
The AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR both traded toward seven-month lows. The EUR/SGD neared two-week highs.
Ahead of this week’s European Central Bank meeting, HICP inflation for the Euro region will be announced today.
HICP inflation looks likely to have slowed somewhat by 10 basis points to 2.6%, while euro area HICP inflation decreased slightly to 2.3% year over year from 2.5% in January.
We believe that the softening of services prices is mostly responsible for the easing of core price pressures; services HICP inflation will drop to 3.8% from 3.9% earlier.
Aussie looks to retail sales, GDP
The Australian dollar faces a pivotal week with key data releases, including Q4 GDP and January retail sales.
Weakness in these figures could extend the AUD/USD’s decline, especially after a prior -0.1% retail sales contraction.
The RBA’s February meeting minutes released this Tuesday may reinforce a cautious stance, weighing further on the AUD if growth concerns persist.
In the US, February’s US Nonfarm Payrolls and ADP employment data will drive USD volatility. Strong job growth could revive bets on Fed tightening, buoying the dollar against peers like EUR and JPY. ISM Manufacturing and factory orders will also test sentiment toward the US economy.
The ECB’s rate announcement is expected to cut by 25-basis points, but any shift in policy guidance could sway EUR pairs. A dovish tilt may pressure EUR/USD, particularly if Q4 GDP revisions disappoint.
China’s February CPI and PPI releases loom over regional FX. Soft PPI and subdued CPI could signal persistent deflation risks, denting CNH and APAC proxies like AUD and NZD.
USD/SGD, USD/CNH push back to highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Citing the need for a level playing field in access to critical minerals, deep-water ports and other key infrastructure or assets, the Trump Administration has paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977 (FCPA) until August, with a possible extension to February 2026.
The FCPA, which was passed on the heels of numerous corporate corruption disclosures, makes it unlawful for any corporate officer, director, employee, company agent, or company shareholder “to offer, pay, or promise to pay money or anything of value to any foreign official for the purpose of obtaining or retaining business.”
The “over expansive and unpredictable FCPA enforcement against American citizens and businesses—by our own Government—for routine business practices in other nations not only wastes limited prosecutorial resources that could be dedicated to preserving American freedoms, but actively harms American economic competitiveness and, therefore, national security,” wrote Trump in the executive order.
Under the executive order, US Attorney General Pam Bondi has until Aug. 9 to review the guidelines and policies that govern FCPA investigations and enforcement actions and issue updated guidelines as appropriate to promote Article II authority to conduct foreign affairs. Bondi can extend her deadline for another 180 days if necessary. Upon updating the guidance, Bondi will decide whether the Department of Justice’s remedial actions are needed for previous FCPA investigations and enforcements or if presidential actions are required.
According to the authors of a post on the law firm Case & White’s blog, companies should continue to use their usual business policies.
“Notwithstanding the administration’s dramatic shift in approach to FCPA enforcement, companies should remain focused on anti-bribery and corruption compliance and, as warranted, internal investigations, given the five-year statute of limitations for FCPA offenses and the ability to toll that period for up to an additional three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s parallel enforcement authority with respect to issuers (at least for now), and enforcement regimes in foreign countries and at multilateral development banks,” they wrote.
Heritage Auctions (www.HA.com), the world’s largest collectibles auctioneer, has been selected as the Official Auctioneer of the Great American Coin and Collectibles Shows (www.GACC.show) for the next five years starting with the next GACC event in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, Illinois, September 23-27, 2025.
“Heritage will have lot viewing in the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center in Rosemont prior to and during the show there, and the auction will be conducted live and online,” explained veteran professional numismatist and show planner Larry Shepherd, President of Shepherd Expos Management, the company that is organizing and operating the GACC event.
“It’s an honor and a privilege to be chosen by Heritage Auctions, the world’s largest numismatic auction company, to be their host for the next five years. I greatly appreciate their trust and confidence in our shows by entering into this relationship,” said Shepherd.
“Heritage’s auctions traditionally have been a centerpiece of many of the large national coin expos, which allows the most serious of collectors to view and evaluate the extraordinary materials we offer at the world’s leading numismatic auctioneer,” said Todd Imhof, Executive Vice President at Heritage Auctions. “We look forward to helping GACC grow into one of the premier coin expos in the world.”
Specific information about submitting consignments for the September auction will be announced by Heritage in the coming weeks.
“The late September timing of the next GACC show presents an opportunity for guests to enjoy idyllic Chicago weather as well as world-class amenities in and around the well-known convention center. In addition to being no stranger to numismatic conventions, the venue boasts convenient proximity and transportation options to and from O’Hare International Airport and other Chicagoland destinations,” said Shepherd.
Additional information for dealers and collectors about the Great American Coin and Collectibles Show, visit www.GACC.show or contact Larry Shepherd by phone at 719-464-8801 or email at [email protected].
Today’s home buyers are searching Zillow for remodeled homes, not fixer-uppers.
Buyers are willing to pay $13,000 more for a move-in-ready home to avoid spending time and money renovations according to Zillow.
Fixer-uppers are selling for 7% less than similar remodeled homes, the largest discount in three years.
Home buyers are less interested in “sweat equity” and “good bones” than a quick move-in, according to recent research.
At least this is what Zillow says its search trends suggest, according to a new report. Real estate marketplace company Zillow in a recent report said their analysis of search trends suggests that buyers are willing to pay nearly 4% more than expected, or about $13,000, for a home that is already remodeled.
Remodeled listings are saved 26% more than homes that are not remodeled, Zillow said, while turnkey homes are shared with a home shopping partner 30% more often than similar homes that aren’t remodeled—indications that those shoppers are more serious about buying.
This hasn’t always been the case, according to Zillow. A year earlier, the company said, the term “remodeled” contributed to a sale price premium of less than 1%. And before the pandemic, Zillow said, listings mentioning terms like “fixer,” “TLC” “needs work” or “good bones” were more likely to sell than those without those terms.
Fixer-upper opportunities can attract buyers looking to spend less money up front or eager to personalize a home. But others may prefer to forego the additional cost, effort and time to complete the work. Some market watchers say Americans who have been avoiding home renovations because of inflation and interest rates may soon decide they can’t put them off much longer. Indeed home-improvement retailers have been waiting for them to restart spending on big-ticket projects.
Homebuyers’ preferences may be influencing home prices, too. Fixer-uppers are now selling for 7% less than other similar homes—the largest discount in three years, according to Zillow.
“Buyers who are already stretching their budget to afford a home in today’s market may not be willing or able to spend more on renovations or repairs. A remodeled home may come with a higher price tag, but a buyer would get to spread that additional cost over the course of a 30-year mortgage versus paying cash upfront to make similar upgrades themselves,” said Amanda Pendleton, ZIllow’s home trend expert.
Editor’s Note: Geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, mixed earnings results, and stalled-out price action have been throwing a wrench into the works this year. But our partners at TradeSmith couldn’t be more certain about what’s coming. And what’s coming is the continuation of an epic melt-up that officially began in April of last year… and will likely only accelerate over the next 12 months.
Today, TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan is joining us today to brief you on exactly how this Mega Melt-Up can set you up for one of the biggest moneymaking opportunities of your lifetime, and why you shouldn’t fear this week’s down market.
Take it away, Keith…
The market has taken us on a wild ride in 2025.
Between Chinese AI breakthroughs, radical shifts in trade policy, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, and now a surge in inflation expectations, the headlines have been all over the place.
Stocks are acting as you’d expect — soaring one week, shaking out weak hands the next.
All this wild price action has ultimately not taken us far. As I write, the Nasdaq-100 is down 1.8% from the start of the year…
And that’s especially painful, considering the 5.7% year-to-date gain we were looking at just last week.
All this chaos can’t help but make you wonder, “Are we heading for a crash?”
If you google that question, you’ll probably find a bunch of mainstream media headlines urging you to stay scared.
But I’m here to tell you something quite different:
This isn’t the beginning of a bear market.
On the contrary, it’s the setup for one of the biggest opportunities of your lifetime.
We’re smack in the middle of what my team has taken to calling a Mega Melt-Up.
We’ve gone through history and quantified the price action of the past few years. And what we found, shocking as it was, tells us that there’s only been two previous market environments like this one: the 1990s and the 1920s. And both were periods where individual companies rose thousands of percent in very short order.
If our research is correct, and I’m confident it is, the volatility we’ve seen this year isn’t a warning sign.
Instead, it’s even more evidence that we’re in a Mega Melt-Up… the kind that only comes around once or twice in a lifetime.
Three Bear Markets to a 1,000% Gain
Yes, the volatility we’re seeing right now actually supports the case for a Mega Melt-Up.
Let’s take a quick trip back in time.
Like what we’ve seen so far in the 2020s, the 1990s were a boom decade.
From 1995 to 2000, the Nasdaq-100 went up 1,000%.
But it wasn’t a straight shot up. In fact, there were more than two dozen major pullbacks in those five years…
Several of which you could consider an “official” bear market…
And each of which would prove a buying opportunity.
Let’s look at 1995-1996.
Starting in 1995, the Nasdaq-100 started to become a lot more volatile. From July 1995 to August 1996, the Nasdaq-100 posted drawdowns of 9.1%… 10.5%… 14%… 8.2%… and 14.4%. All in the span of one year:
What else happened back then? Well, in 1995 the Nasdaq-100 rose almost 40%. And the next year, it rose 22.7%.
Let’s skip ahead a bit to 1997-1998. We see the exact same thing.
Not only did the Nasdaq-100 retreat 20% in late 1997, creating a short-lived bear market… it saw two separate drawdowns of -22.2% and -19.1% within six months in 1998:
Yet once again, the index went up 21.6% in 1997 and 39.6% in 1998.
Finally, let’s look at 1999. Four major pullbacks in the double-digit range, and one final flush of nearly 9% before stocks took off into the end of the year:
What was the Nasdaq-100’s return in 1999? 101.95%… the highest ever.
The big takeaway from this is simple. You can’t have a Mega Melt-Up without massive price swings along the way.
This is exactly what we found in our research. Both the ’90s Mega Melt-Up and the 1920s Mega Melt-Up were marked by a ton of volatility.
It’s the price you pay for the kind of extraordinary gains markets deliver in these times.
And, when you zoom out, it’s clear that it’s a small price to pay.
Now, by comparison, what we’re seeing in stocks right now isn’t anything like what I just showed you. The S&P 500 is 3% off its highs and the Nasdaq-100 is 5% off its highs.
They can absolutely go lower from here, and that would not change my thinking on this Mega Melt-Up one bit.
In fact, there’s an argument that the Melt-Up we’re about to see could be even bigger than the one in the ‘90s.
Why This Melt-Up Could Be Bigger Than the 1990s
The 1990s had three powerful forces fueling stocks:
The birth of the internet (what we’ve been calling a General Purpose Technology) and the associated new companies taking advantage of the trend.
The rise of online trading, making stocks more accessible than ever.
Easier monetary policy, where the Fed’s interest-rate cuts fueled a consumer credit boom.
These three forces are what we call Melt-Up Multipliers. For a Melt-Up to be truly powerful, it must have these specific three factors.
The 1920s saw the same thing, with electrification being the major technological breakthrough… margin lending making it possible for investors to own more stocks than they could buy… and a consumer credit boom powering the economy.
Today, we have these same three melt-up multipliers… and one more.
Artificial Intelligence: AI is today’s Internet moment — a technology that’s changing everything, from medicine to finance.
Zero-Commission Trading & Apps Like Robinhood: More retail money is flooding into the markets than ever before.
The Fed’s Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve is slashing rates again, just like it did in the mid-90s.
Oh, and there’s a “wild card” fourth factor… President Donald Trump. Like him or not, his policies are market-friendly… And the last time he took office in 2017, the Nasdaq-100 surged 31.5%.
This is the perfect storm for a Mega Melt-Up.
But there’s a tricky thing to understand about melt-ups… and especially Mega Melt-Ups…
All melt-ups end the same way—in a meltdown.
Ride the Melt-Up and Avoid the Meltdown
The 1990s Melt-Up ended with the 2000 crash. The Roaring ’20s Melt-Up ended in the 1929 crash… and, even worse, the Great Depression.
And yes, this melt-up will end in a crash, too.
But that doesn’t mean you should sit on the sidelines. It means you need the right tools to capture the upside — and know exactly when to get out.
That’s why we built Trade360, our all-in-one software suite that’s designed to help you make the most out of every market environment.
And we recently made two big upgrades specifically to make it the perfect trading tool for a Mega Melt-Up period like we’re seeing now.
One is a tool that clearly identifies whether markets are in Melt-Up mode or not… and alerts you when that condition changes.
With this, you don’t have to second-guess whether or not we’ve seen a major top. You’ll get an alert that tells you when it’s time to get out before stocks crash.
The other is an advanced trading strategy that’s perfectly suited to melt-up environments.
Remember all those drawdowns in the Nasdaq-100 I showed you earlier?
If we’re seeing all that selling in the benchmark, you better believe we’re seeing it in individual stocks, too.
So, we designed a strategy that takes advantage of these short-term, extreme pullbacks in otherwise quality stocks.
When prices fall by a certain amount and at a certain pace, the strategy buys in… and sells the stock 21 trading days later.
This simple strategy has a near 80% win rate and average gains of around 16% — counting winners and losers.
And it works whether stocks are in a bull market, or a bear market… as it targets those rare occurrences where prices reach irrational extremes.
I discussed the full details on our Mega Melt-Up thesis and the full breakdown of this new strategy in a recent free research presentation.
Not only that, but I also let viewers in on 10 stocks to buy and 10 to avoid during the melt-up period… completely free. Click here to watch the replay.
While Mexico and Canada have secured a one-month reprieve from the Trump administration’s 25% tariff hike, US automakers and parts manufacturers remain on edge, awaiting further developments in the trade dispute among the three nations.
Given the deep integration of the US auto industry’s supply chain with its northern and southern neighbors, any tariff increase after the pause would come at a significant cost.
General Motors, the largest US automaker, produces 40% of its vehicles in Mexico and Canada. According to the Cato Institute, Mexican GM plants exported more than 700,000 vehicles to the US last year. Ford is less exposed. Only 358,000 of its vehicles came from Mexico in 2024. Stellantis—maker of the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram product lines—followed with 314,000 vehicles. The Big Three’s foreign counterparts, Toyota, Honda, and Volkswagen, are also heavily invested in North America and would suffer as well.
Bernstein Research calculates that a 25% tariff would burden the auto industry with a $110 million daily surcharge; and Jefferies, the investment bank, estimates the tariffs would add $2,700 to the average price of a vehicle. Retail prices would go up, prodding consumers to buy less.
“The North American auto industry is highly integrated, and the imposition of tariffs would be detrimental to American jobs, investment, and consumers,” says Jennifer Safavian, CEO of Autos Drive America, the lobby representing foreign carmakers.
Big brands are used to assembling vehicles in the US, Canada, and Mexico. They procure essential components, including motors, transmissions, and simple components, from across the border. Some parts cross back and forth five or six times before they are incorporated into a finished vehicle. A 2025 Cato tariff study tracked a capacitor—an electrical component in a circuit board—on its journey. It was first bought in Colorado and shipped to Ciudad Juarez in Mexico to be included in a circuit board. The component was spotted in El Paso, Texas; and Matamoros, Mexico. It finished its trajectory in two seat-manufacturing plants, in Arlington, Texas; and Mississauga, Ontario.
Proposed designs for the United States Mint’s 2026 American Innovation dollar for California have been unveiled, revealing it will feature Steve Jobs.
Recommended designs for the 2026 American Innovation $1 coin for California. One of these designs is likely to be chosen by the Secretary of the Treasury for the coin’s reverse.
Raised in Los Altos, California, Jobs was a visionary entrepreneur who revolutionized the technology industry with innovations in personal computing, smartphones, and digital media.
“Steve Jobs transformed society’s relationship with technology by integrating it into our daily lives through user-friendly, accessible, and aesthetically pleasing design,” the U.S. Mint’s design narrative states.
“Jobs’ relentless pursuit of his vision not only revolutionized personal computing but also laid the foundation for the digital age, cementing his legacy as one of the most influential innovators of the modern era,” the narrative concluded.
The U.S. Mint’s American Innovation $1 Coin Program celebrates innovation and pioneering achievements from each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the five U.S. territories. Launched in 2018, the program features annually released coins, with four unique reverse designs per year, each honoring a significant innovation or innovator.
Design Recommendations for California Innovation Dollar
Six candidate designs for the California Innovation dollar were presented to the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) on Feb. 18 and the Commission of Fine Arts (CFA) on Feb. 20. Liaisons from the state and both advisory bodies provided their recommendations.
Stakeholders, represented by Dee Dee Myers, senior advisor to Gov. Newsom and director of the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development, favored 7C overall, with 07A as a secondary choice. Both designs depict a young Steve Jobs seated before Northern California’s oak-covered rolling hills.
The CCAC recommended 10A, highlighting his iconic speeches and ability to connect with audiences.
Meanwhile, the CFA did not strongly favor any single design but acknowledged that 01B offered a clearer link between Jobs and his innovations. Ultimately, however, they supported any selection made by the stakeholders or CCAC, recommending the use of a proportional font and ensuring the inscription “Make Something Wonderful” was included if not already present.
In the end, the Secretary of the Treasury will make the final design selection after considering recommendations from the advisory panels and stakeholders.
Design Images and Design Descriptions
The U.S. Mint’s line art images and design descriptions for all the candidate designs follow.
The six candidate designs for the 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for California
CA-01B captures Steve Jobs in his characteristic speaking pose, evoking his famous product presentations and visionary speeches. It incorporates circuit patterns emerging from his hands and flowing around his figure, symbolizing his innovative spirit. Through his emphasis on design, usability, and consumer appeal, Jobs helped reshape how people interact with technology in their daily lives. As Jobs remarked about his purpose, “There’s lots of ways to be, as a person. And some people express their deep appreciation for their species in different ways. But one of the ways that I believe people express their appreciation to the rest of humanity is to make something wonderful and put it out there. And you never meet the people, you never shake their hands, you never hear their story or tell yours – but, somehow, in the act of making something with a great deal of care and love, something’s transmitted there.” The additional inscriptions are “STEVE JOBS” and “MAKE SOMETHING WONDERFUL.”
CA-04A depicts a tree with branches that blend with computer circuitry, symbolizing how Steve Jobs drew inspiration from California’s natural landscapes to shape his technological vision. The intertwining circuits and branches reflect the intuitive and organic user experience he would champion, reflecting the harmony he found in the natural world. A falling leaf draws attention to his name, representing how his influence continues to resonate even after his passing. The additional inscription is “STEVE JOBS.”
CA-05A displays Steve Jobs within a computer screen and a keyboard below, conveying Jobs’ early implementation of the personal computer for public use. His name appears on the screen in a font evoking early computers. The monitor contrasts with the textured surrounding to mimic light emanating from a computer screen. The additional inscription is “STEVE JOBS.”
CA-07A and CA-07C present a young Steve Jobs sitting in front of a quintessentially Northern California landscape of oak-covered rolling hills. Captured in a moment of reflection, his posture and expression reflect how this environment inspired his vision to transform complex technology into something as intuitive and organic to us as nature itself. CA-07A shows Jobs with his hands on his knees, while CA-07C renders his hands in front of his lap. The additional inscriptions are “STEVE JOBS” and “MAKE SOMETHING WONDERFUL.”
CA-10A features Steve Jobs speaking, recalling his legendary speeches and emphasizing his ability to connect with audiences. The minimalistic fonts honor his aesthetic vision and approach to design. The additional inscription is “STEVE JOBS.”
Nearly 40,000 individuals and organizations received support for tuition costs and repayment from GoFundMe fundraisers in 2024, the fundraising platform said.
People have turned to crowdfunding as some federal student loan borrowers say their education wasn’t worth the burden that their debt causes them.
While many fundraisers were started by the people with the need themselves, according to GoFundMe, others were launched by parent-teacher organizations, sports teams, clubs or other groups.
Thousands of Americans carrying student loan debt are turning to their communities for help footing the bills. In many cases, those communities are showing up.
Nearly 40,000 individuals and organizations got help funding tuition costs and loan repayment expenses from GoFundMe fundraisers in 2024, according to the crowdfunding platform. While many fundraisers were started by the people with the need themselves, according to GoFundMe, others were launched by parent-teacher organizations, sports teams, clubs or other groups.
One fundraiser was started by a friend of a Santa Fe nursing student and single mom of two who said she maxed out on her Pell Grant and opportunity scholarship during her last semester. “I am reaching out in the hopes that my community, who knows how hard I have worked and how far I have come, may be able to help me in this time of need,” she wrote.
The campaigns come as federal student loan borrowers face rising tuition costs and unexpected lawsuits challenging repayment plans.
“Everyone is in school in order to accomplish something professionally, and people are inspired to support those dreams and [to help people avoid] being burdened or prevented from [accomplishing] those dreams because of their debt,” said Margaret Richardson, chief corporate affairs officer at GoFundMe. “There is a real innate human desire to show up for people in those moments.”
Why Are Borrowers Reaching Out For Help?
There are 42.7 million federal student loan borrowers who have debt totaling almost $1.64 trillion, according to Federal Student Aid.
Among those borrowers, surveys indicate, are people who worry that their educations might not pay off: More than two-thirds of student loan borrowers said their education wasn’t worth the burden they now feel from their debt, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of childcare and education provider Bright Horizons.
Student loans have typically been considered “good debt” that offers a return on the investment due to the higher incomes that a college degree can provide. However, as tuition costs have increased over the years, more borrowers have been wary of student loan debt and turned to donation platforms to receive help with tuition, Richardson said.
Many borrowers also asked for tuition support because an outside circumstance, such as the loss of a job or a car accident, made it harder to pay back the debt, according to GoFundMe.
“While I hate asking for things, I know I’m too close to finishing this journey to give up now,”one student at the Berklee College of Music wrote. “Thus, I’m putting aside my pride and asking for help from anyone who feels it in their heart to give.”
Many borrowers have faced uncertainty with their repayment plans. Many federal student loan borrowers were pushed into forbearance, which made it impossible to work toward loan forgiveness after President Joe Biden’s Saving on a Valuable Education repayment plan and greater student loan forgiveness were struck down by federal courts.
“To be able to share this need, in some cases, an unexpected need with their community is something that is a real gift for people,” Richardson said. “To be able to say, ‘I need help,’ and for their community to show up for them, and be able to say, ‘We’ve got your back’.”
There’s always a bull market happening somewhere… and we’ve found it
Last week, I (Tom Yeung) introduced you to two cyclical stocks to buy immediately.
These promising firms couldn’t have been more different, at least from a business perspective:
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) is a $50 billion data center company leasing millions of square feet to AI cloud computing customers.
Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) packs chicken and beef into grocery store containers.
Yet, these two companies are both riding cyclical waves. The AI Boom is driving Digital Realty’s business to new heights, while a turnaround in cattle production is powering Tyson to a strong recovery.
That pair joins another eight recommendations from January that also focused on riding cyclical trends. These 10 high-quality firms have now risen 7% on average – outperforming the weighted S&P 500 return (-3%) and trouncing the -6% decline in the Nasdaq Composite over the same period.
That’s because cyclical effects can often overwhelm broader market negativity. Commodity prices surged during the 2008 financial crisis while everything else was plummeting… airline stocks boomed in the mid-2010s as oil prices collapsed… and chipmaking stocks surged in 2020 on a global shortage despite the broader Covid-19 selloff.
Today, the cycle is pointing upward for power-producing companies… financial exchanges… meatpackers… and more. That’s happening even as the rest of the market goes in reverse.
Nevertheless, these wonderful up-cycles are incredibly short to Keith Kaplan, CEO of TradeSmith. He’s helping his software firm’s investor customers find cycles across decades… if not longer.
When this patten appears, Keith says, it can send a specific class of stocks soaring. In fact, back-tests show the last time this pattern appeared under these conditions, it led to historic gains over the long haul, such as 9,731% from a leading software company… and 28,894% from a computer-driven hardware firm.
For long-term investors, it’s an event you don’t want to miss.
And in the meantime, I’d like to introduce two final cyclical stocks to buy this year.
Let’s Talk About the Weather
In 2015, New England faced “Snowmageddon,” an epic winter season that dumped nearly 8 feet of snow in Boston alone. The city would spend over $40 million responding to the storms – more than twice its annual snow-removal budget. One massive snow pile in South Boston’s Seaport district took until mid-July to fully melt.
The following period would prove a windfall for Douglas Dynamics Inc. (PLOW), America’s largest producer of snowplow attachments and ice management tools. Over the next three years, revenues would surge 56% as customers scrambled to replace their aging plows and salt-spreading equipment.
PLOW’s stock more than doubled.
A down-cycle then began in 2020 after a series of dry winters eviscerated demand. Northern regions from the Midwest to New England saw unusually low amounts of snow, and Douglas’s stock dropped to within striking distance of its pre-2015 levels.
2025 could mark a turnaround year for the Wisconsin-based firm.
In January, an unusual Gulf Coast snowstorm dumped as much as 10 inches of snow on parts of New Orleans. The city only had 14 rented plows to clear the streets. The same storm would also expose enormous snow-clearing equipment shortages from Texas to the Carolinas.
Many parts of America are also seeing their first “average” winters in several years. That same month, Boston saw 4 inches or more of snow for the first time in 1,000 days.
That should provide a new up-cycle for this high-quality firm. Douglas Dynamics owns some of the best-known brands in the business, including Fisher, Henderson, and SnowEx, and has a history of making solid bolt-on acquisitions. The company has generated positive cash flows every year since it began publishing records in 2006.
In addition, shares trade at a significant discount. PLOW is currently valued at under 10 times earnings and eight times cash flow – less than half of historical levels.
Please note that much of the Midwest is still seeing an unusually dry winter, so Douglas’s up-cycle could take until 2026 to fully play out. But given the Northeast’s sudden return to an “average” winter (and the South’s recent snowstorm), that should be enough to jumpstart a new upward cycle for PLOW’s beaten-down shares.
The Tools of the Trade
In January, I said CME Group Inc. (CME) and Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) were two wide-moat cyclical companies to buy. These firms have virtual monopolies in the options and futures markets, and profits tend to spike when volatility rises.
Donald Trump’s second term in office is providing a compelling catalyst for gains.
Shares of the two companies have since risen 7% each on a spike in the market’s VIX “fear” index (a ticker ironically owned by CBOE). Further gains are likely as the threat of tariffs materialize.
This week, I’d like to add one more financial firm to our list of high-quality cyclical stocks:
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW). The world’s largest brokerage firmscores a solid “B” based on InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Louis Navellier’s proprietary Stock Grader scores, and has generated positive net income every year since going public in 1987.
Schwab’s management has also been relatively quick to recognize trends in both institutional and retail trading. In 2019, the firm shocked the industry by offering zero-commission online trades, reasoning it could earn enough interest income from cash deposits to make up the difference. The following year, Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade, giving it a strong presence in the online trading boom.
Together, that’s turned Schwab into a money-printing machine. The firm now supports over $8 trillion of client assets and generates $9 billion of net interest revenue annually – almost half of total revenues.
Still, the trading business is highly cyclical. Trump’s first year in office in2017 saw a flurry of stock trading, boosting Schwab’s revenues by 17% and its share price by 35%. Rising interest rates the following year then created a down-cycle by causing customers to reduce cash balances and cutting into Schwab’s interest revenues.
A similar cycle played out in the years following the Covid-19 pandemic. Retail traders flush with pandemic stimulus money powered Schwab’s business to record heights. Then, rising rates from 2022 through 2023 created a down-cycle for the blue-chip firm. Wall Street’s rollercoaster rides are even wilder for trading firms.
2025 marks the beginning of a new cycle. Donald Trump is back in office, and according to Nasdaq data, trading in equity volumes surged 14% in January. Interest rates are also on the decline, making cash more attractive.
Both should benefit Schwab greatly. Analysts now expect earnings per share to surge 34% this year and 26% in 2026. For conservative investors seeking a safer way to play the market, Schwab offers an incredible deal.
The 49.5-Year Cycle
I must emphasize that the 12 cyclical stocks I’ve shown you so far this year all have relatively short time horizons. Douglas Dynamics could reach its peak within two years. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB), a cyclical firm I recommended in January, took just a month to come within 5% of its target price.
Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Tom Yeung’s Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.
After more than three years, CIBC Caribbean wrapped up its segment of a groupwide efficiency drive last month with the successful transfer of its Saint Maarten operations to Orco Bank. The divestment drive began in October 2021; since then, CIBC has sold operations in Aruba, Curaçao, Dominica, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, as well.
“Our country divestment program is now over,” said CIBC Caribbean’s CEO Mark St. Hill, in a statement. “These were some very complex transactions, and it is a credit to [CIBC’s team’s and buyer banks’] expertise and professionalism that we were able to complete all of them within the timeframe that we set out and with relative ease.”
Operating as CIBC FirstCaribbean in the Dutch Caribbean, the bank’s reduced regional footprint has resulted in a modern, slimmed-down bank, St. Hill added. Changes included centralizing key functions, including digital sales through LoanStore; launching an agile work plan; and revamping its call centers into contact centers.
Parent CIBC has been refocusing on its core markets to accelerate growth. The ownership changes are subject to local banking regulatory approval, which is expected in the forthcoming months.
“Acquiring CIBC FirstCaribbean’s banking assets presents an excellent opportunity for Orco Bank,” says Edward Pietersz, Orco managing director and CEO. “With an expanded reach, we are well positioned to fulfill our mission of being the preferred partner, offering innovative, customer-driven solutions that enable financial freedom in a responsible and sustainable manner while creating shared value for our communities.”
A similar effort to de-risk the region by National Commercial Bank Jamaica with the sale of its Cayman Islands subsidiary NCB Cayman has fallen through. The transaction failed to be completed within the agreed timeframe, parent NCB Financial Group revealed. But rumors persist that other international banks are considering selling some of their Caribbean assets due to poor performance and high compliance costs in the region.
