Archives March 2025

Updated on March 3rd, 2025 by Bob Ciura

Investors looking to generate higher income levels from their investment portfolios should look at Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs.

These are companies that own real estate properties and lease them to tenants, or invest in real estate backed loans, both of which generate a steady stream of income.

The bulk of their income is then passed on to shareholders through dividends.

You can see all 200+ REITs here.

You can download our full list of REITs, along with important metrics such as dividend yields and market capitalizations, by clicking on the link below:

 

The beauty of REITs for income investors is that they are required to distribute 90% of their taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends. In return, REITs typically do not pay corporate taxes.

As a result, many of the 200+ REITs we track offer high dividend yields of 5%+.

But not all high-yielding stocks are automatic buys. Investors should carefully assess the fundamentals to ensure that high yields are sustainable.

Note that while the securities in this article have very high yields, a high yield alone does not make for a solid investment. Dividend safety, valuation, management, balance sheet health, and growth are also very important factors.

We urge investors to use the analysis below as informative but to do significant due diligence before buying into any security – especially high-yield securities.

Many (but not all) high-yield securities have a significant risk of a dividend reduction and/or deteriorating business results.

Table of Contents

You can instantly jump to any specific section of the article by using the links below:

High-Yield REIT No. 10: Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT)

Community Healthcare Trust is an REIT which owns income-producing real estate properties linked to the healthcare sector, such as physician offices, specialty centers, behavioral facilities, inpatient rehabilitation facilities, and medical office buildings.

The trust has investments in 197 properties in 35 states, totaling 4.4 million square feet.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 18th, 2025, Community Healthcare Trust reported fourth quarter results for the period ending December 31st, 2024.

Funds from operations (FFO) per share dipped 16% to $0.48 from $0.57 in the prior year quarter. Adjusted FFO per share, however, declined by 10% to $0.55.

During the quarter, Community Healthcare acquired three properties for $8.2 million. These properties were 100% leased with lease expirations through 2029.

The trust also has seven properties under definitive purchase agreements, with a combined purchase price of roughly $170 million, expected to close from 2025 through 2027.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CHCT (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 9: Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM)

Chimera Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that is a specialty finance company. The company’s primary business is in investing through subsidiaries in a diversified portfolio of mortgage assets, including residential mortgage loans, Non-Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and other real estate related securities.

Chimera’s income is predominantly obtained by the difference between the income the company earns on its assets and financing and hedging costs.

The company funds the purchase of assets through several funding sources: asset securitization, repurchase agreements (repo), warehouse lines, and equity capital.

On May 21st, 2024, Chimera executed a 1-for-3 reverse stock split due to its depressed stock price, which resulted from the impact of high interest rates. This was a negative development.

In mid-February, Chimera released (2/12/25) results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Its core earnings-per-share edged up sequentially, from $0.36 to $0.37, thanks to lower provisions for credit losses. Chimera missed the analysts’ consensus by $0.01.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CIM (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 8: Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. is a single-use “specialty REIT” that exclusively focuses on owning properties used for the cultivation and production of cannabis.

As of the end of 2024, IIPR had 109 properties, with a weighted average lease length of 13.7 years. Approximately 92% of IIPR’s properties are industrial, with retail comprising 2% and blended properties the remaining 6%.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 19th, 2025, IIPR released its Q4 and full-year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, revenues and normalized AFFO/share were $76.7 million and $2.22, down 3% and 2.6% year-over-year, respectively.

The decline in revenues was due to lost rent and fees from properties repossessed or sold since 2023, lease amendments that adjusted and deferred rent on certain properties, and (iii) partial rent payments from some tenants, along with reclassified sales-type leases starting January 2024.

These factors were offset by $3.9 million from a disposition-contingent lease termination fee, revenue from new acquisitions, and contractual rent escalations.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on IIPR (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 7: Pennymac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust invests in residential mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. PMT has three segments: credit sensitive strategies, interest rate sensitive strategies and correspondent production.

PennyMac Mortgage began its operations in 2009 with $324 million of assets, which has grown to $13.1 billion as of September 30th, 2024. PMT is externally managed by PNMAC Capital Management, which itself is a wholly owned subsidiary of PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI).

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported fourth quarter 2024 results on January 30th, 2025, for the period ending December 31st, 2024. PMT reported net investment income of $107.9 million, which was a 27% jump from NII of $84.8 million in the prior year quarter.

The trust generated $0.41 per share profit in the quarter, which was a 7% decrease from the year-ago quarter.

The book value per share increased from $15.85 on September 30th, 2024 to $15.87 on December 31st, 2024. In the fourth quarter, the company added $60 million in new mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PMT (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 6: AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)

American Capital Agency Corp is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in agency mortgage–backed securities (or MBS) on a leveraged basis.

The firm’s asset portfolio is comprised of residential mortgage pass–through securities, collateralized mortgage obligations (or CMO), and non–agency MBS. Many of these are guaranteed by government–sponsored enterprises.

AGNC Investment Corp. reported strong financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. The company achieved a comprehensive income of $0.63 per common share, driven by a net income of $0.39 and other comprehensive income of $0.24 from marked-to-market investments.

Net spread and dollar roll income contributed $0.43 per share.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 5: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)

Arbor Realty Trust is a nationwide mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that acts as a direct lender and operates in two reporting segments: Agency Business and Structured Business. The trust provides loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare, and other diverse commercial real estate assets.

Arbor Realty’s specific focus is government-sponsored enterprise products, although its platform also includes commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), bridge and mezzanine loans, and preferred equity issuances.

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) reported third-quarter 2024 results with net income of $0.31 per diluted common share, matching expectations, and distributable earnings of $0.43 per share. Revenue reached $88.81 million, a 17.23% year-over-year decrease but still beating estimates by $3.10 million.

The company declared a cash dividend of $0.43 per share and announced agency loan originations totaling $1.1 billion, supporting a $33.01 billion servicing portfolio, which grew 10% year-over-year. Structured loan originations reached $258.5 million, contributing to a $11.57 billion portfolio.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ABR (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 4: Dynex Capital (DX)

Dynex Capital invests in mortgage–backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis in the United States. It invests in agency and non–agency MBS consisting of residential MBS, commercial MBS (CMBS), and CMBS interest–only securities.

Source: Investor Presentation

Dynex Capital released its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, with book value ending the quarter at $12.70 per share and an economic return of 7.4% for the year.

Leverage increased slightly to 7.9x as the company deployed capital into higher-yielding agency RMBS, particularly 30-year 4.5%, 5%, and 5.5% coupons.

The shift from treasury futures to interest rate swaps was a key strategy, enhancing portfolio returns by 200 to 300 basis points and improving net interest spread.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on DX (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 3: Ellington Credit Co. (EARN)

Ellington Credit Co. acquires, invests in, and manages residential mortgage and real estate related assets. Ellington focuses primarily on residential mortgage-backed securities, specifically those backed by a U.S. Government agency or U.S. government–sponsored enterprise.

Agency MBS are created and backed by government agencies or enterprises, while non-agency MBS are not guaranteed by the government.

Source: Investor Presentation

On November 12th, 2024, Ellington Residential reported its third quarter results for the period ending September 30th, 2024. The company generated net income of $5.4 million, or $0.21 per share.

Ellington achieved adjusted distributable earnings of $7.2 million in the quarter, leading to adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share, which covered the dividend paid in the period. Ellington’s net interest margin was 5.22% overall.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on EARN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 2: ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)

ARMOUR Residential invests in residential mortgage-backed securities that include U.S. Government-sponsored entities (GSE) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

It also includes Ginnie Mae, the Government National Mortgage Administration’s issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable-rate, and adjustable-rate home loans.

Unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the US Treasury, money market instruments, and non-GSE or government agency-backed securities are examples of other types of investments.

Source: Investor presentation

On October 23, 2024, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced its unaudited third-quarter 2024 financial results, reporting a GAAP net income available to common stockholders of $62.9 million, or $1.21 per common share. The company generated a net interest income of $1.8 million and distributable earnings of $52.0 million, equivalent to $1.00 per common share.

ARMOUR achieved an average interest income of 4.89% on interest-earning assets and an interest cost of 5.51% on average interest-bearing liabilities. The economic net interest spread stood at 2.00%, calculated from an economic interest income of 4.44% minus an economic interest expense of 2.44%.

During the quarter, ARMOUR raised $129.4 million by issuing 6,413,735 shares of common stock through an at-the-market offering program and paid common stock dividends of $0.72 per share for Q3.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

High-Yield REIT No. 1: Orchid Island Capital Inc (ORC)

Orchid Island Capital is a mortgage REIT that is externally managed by Bimini Advisors LLC and focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including pass-through and structured agency RMBSs.

These financial instruments generate cash flow based on residential loans such as mortgages, subprime, and home-equity loans.

Source: Investor Presentation

The company reported a net income of $17.3 million, or $0.24 per common share, significantly improving from a net loss of $80.1 million in the same quarter last year. This net income comprised $0.3 million in net interest income and $4.3 million in total expenses.

Additionally, Orchid recorded net realized and unrealized gains of $21.2 million, or $0.29 per common share, from Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and derivative instruments, including interest rate swaps.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Final Thoughts

REITs have significant appeal for income investors due to their high yields. These 10 extremely high-yielding REITs are especially attractive on the surface, although investors should be aware that abnormally high yields are often accompanied by elevated risks.

If you are interested in finding high-quality dividend growth stocks and/or other high-yield securities and income securities, the following Sure Dividend resources will be useful:

High-Yield Individual Security Research

Other Sure Dividend Resources

During these busy times, it pays to stay on top of the latest profit opportunities. And today’s blog post should be a great place to start. After taking a close look at the latest data on institutional buying pressure and each company’s fundamental health, I decided to revise my Stock Grader recommendations for 164 big blue chips. Chances are that you have at least one of these stocks in your portfolio, so you may want to give this list a skim and act accordingly.

---

Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/market360/2025/03/20250303-blue-chip-upgrades-downgrades/.

©2025 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

It used to be tough investing in private market assets. Typically, at least a couple of hundred thousand dollars was required, and you had to commit the money for up to 10 years or more. You had to be an accredited investor (sophisticated and experienced), and you had to be ready to fork over more capital in the future depending on the terms.

Not anymore. The development of open-ended, “evergreen” funds that allow investors to periodically redeem shares—typically, monthly or quarterly—and carry relatively low investment minimums have made private market investing accessible to just about everyone. The new funds’ investing strategies run the gamut. Some focus on specific sectors of the market while others are more diversified.

“Anyone can get exposure to private investments now,” says William Whitt, analyst with Datos Insights. “New fund structures are generating a lot of interest with retail investors.”

Evergreen funds are intended to attract investors further down the wealth spectrum from the traditional buyers of private equity and debt stakes. High-net-worth (HNW) investors, with more than $1 million in liquid assets, and the mass affluent, with less than $1 million, have virtually no holdings in private markets. En masse, they represent a huge new source of potential capital for private equity and debt managers to tap. A survey of alternative fund managers by Ernst & Young last year found that accessing private client capital was the top strategic priority for managers.

The number of funds being floated, largely by the biggest financial sponsors like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo, is growing rapidly. According to FS Investments and Prequin data, more than 500 evergreen funds held over $400 billion in assets in 2023. Last October, KKR and mutual fund giant Capital Group filed to launch two hybrid fixed-income funds investing in public and private debt.

The filings underscore an effort to make private markets more accessible to a broader client base, the firms touted in a press release.

“The product structures are much more client-friendly and they’re bringing a lot more investors to the table,” says Mark Sutterlin, head of alternative investments at Bank of America and Merrill Lynch. “You need discipline to put together a diversified portfolio, but advisors can implement a plan in a more turnkey manner now.”

The development of the secondary market in private investments has also opened up opportunities for new buyers in the private space. Secondaries are existing stakes in private asset funds that are sold to other investors. The buyer gets into the fund later in the investment lifecycle but is still obligated to meet any further contracted capital calls from the general partner.

Some secondaries are simply the stakes of existing limited partners in the fund while others are transactions led by the general partner. The GP can use the money either to continue holding assets in the fund or to cash out existing investors. In some cases, investors can get discounts on secondary offerings, which will have a shorter time horizon than primary fund investments.

“Secondaries can be a good way to start an allocation,” says Trish Halper, CIO in the family office practice at Northern Trust. “They’re further along in the investment cycle and investors can get distributions quicker.”

Alternatives research firm Preqin is forecasting that secondaries will be the fastest growing segment of the alternatives market over the next five years.

The proliferation of new fund structures and the development of the secondaries market is bringing new investors to the private asset markets. Some close observers, however, are skeptical of this “democratization” of the market. “It feels like the latest fad,” Whitt says. “Everyone is running after it because everyone else is without really thinking about why.”     

Wrapping up a four-year series of proof sets featuring coins honoring women’s contributions to U.S. history, the United States Mint releases its 2025 American Women Quarters Proof Set today at noon ET.

The clad set includes five San Francisco Mint-struck quarters, marking the final issues in the Mint’s American Women Quarters™ Program. Each coin is in proof finish, featuring frosted design elements and mirror-like backgrounds – achieved through multiple strikes on polished planchets using specially prepared dies.

The set’s 2025 quarters honor:

• Ida B. Wells – Investigative journalist, suffragist, and civil rights activist
• Juliette Gordon Low – Founder of the Girl Scouts of the United States of America
• Dr. Vera Rubin – Astronomer known for pioneering research on galaxy rotation
• Stacey Park Milbern – Disability rights activist
• Althea Gibson – Groundbreaking multi-sport athlete and the first Black player to break tennis’s color barrier

The individuals celebrated appear on the reverse (tails side) of their respective quarters, accompanied by inscriptions reading “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” and “QUARTER DOLLAR,” along with additional inscriptions specific to each honoree.

The obverse (heads side) of each quarter shares Laura Gardin Fraser’s portrait of George Washington, originally designed in 1932 to commemorate his 200th birthday. Inscriptions include “LIBERTY,” “IN GOD WE TRUST,” and “2025.”

The American Women Quarters Program launched in 2022, with five releases issued each year as part of the series.

Price, Ordering and Limits

The 2025 American Women Quarters Proof Set is priced at $26.50. It is available directly from the U.S. Mint through its online store for quarter products.

All five coins are packaged in a single protective lens. The set has a product limit of 60,060, with a household order limit of five for the first 24 hours.

American Women Quarters are also included in other upcoming U.S. Mint products, such as rolls and bags of each quarter, other annual numismatic sets – including uncirculated sets, standard and silver proof sets – and holiday ornaments.

After nearly two years of lackluster production, the U.S. factory sector’s efforts to mount a comeback slowed in February, with a closely-watched industry survey showing that tariff worries were making manufacturers nervous.

The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey showed that the factory sector expanded in February with a 50.3% reading. It’s the second month in a row the index has registered above 50, indicating an expanding manufacturing sector, after 26 straight months of contraction. 

However, the February survey reading was down from the month before and came lower than economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires expected.

The report weighed on market sentiment Monday as investors have grown increasingly concerned about the health of the economy and the impact of policies being pursued by the Trump administration.

Tariffs Spur Concerns About Inflation

Selected commentary from the factory managers answering the survey pointed to worries over President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which includes 25% levies on Canada and Mexico set to go into effect tomorrow. 

“New orders plunged into contraction in February as tariff uncertainty caused many downstream consumers to take a wait-and-see approach to expenses in 2025,” wrote Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers.

The potential impact of the tariffs was already causing some real price increases for manufacturers, as the prices paid index rose by 7.5 percentage points to hit 62.4% in February.

“Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Editor’s note: “Stock Picking Mastery: Identifying Tomorrow’s Champions Today” was previously published in January 2025 with the title, “Stock Picking Mastery: An Exciting New Tool for Smarter Investing.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

I don’t know about you, but as someone heavily involved in stock analysis on a regular basis, I often feel like there must be a better way to approach the markets. Just imagine how much time you could save if, instead of poring over the details of each individual stock out there, you had a tool that could do so for you. Well, that’s exactly what we’ve aimed to create with Auspex, our latest stock picking system.

You may already be familiar. Indeed, in recent issues, we’ve offered glimpses into this tool’s inner workings. 

In short, Auspex leverages fundamental, technical, and sentimental data to help us find the stocks with the strongest possible setup. That way, we have the opportunity to get into the most promising stocks at the best time – before they go on to rise. 

We’ve spent several months developing, testing, even using Auspex to help us home in on such up-and-coming market winners. And today, we’re releasing the model’s top picks to buy for March. 

But… before you check out those latest trades… I would like to finish explaining just how this innovative model helps uncover the market’s future top performers.

That is, previously, we’ve discussed how Auspex uses a series of fundamental factors to narrow down a universe of ~14,000 potential picks to uncover just those that meet our very strict criteria.

And today, I want to explain how Auspex takes those fundamentally strong stocks and whittles the list down even further, ultimately landing on the best picks the market has to offer. 

Using Fundamentals, Technicals and Sentiment to Reveal Top Stocks

As we’ve mentioned previously, when we have Auspex scan the markets, it analyzes a universe of roughly 14,000 stocks. In our scan from early December, for example, only about 300 of those 14,000 stocks were deemed fundamentally strong, with accelerating sales and earnings growth and swelling profit margins.

But we don’t stop there. After receiving those results, we incorporate additional technical and sentimental parameters to continue paring down that list. And ultimately, only a few stocks make the final cut. For instance, out of 14,000 possible stocks, Auspex identified just 10 picks for the month of December.

OK… so, how does this system deem which stocks are worthy investments?

Well, when it comes to technicals, we’re essentially looking for stocks with strong upward price momentum.

We want to see the 200-day moving average (MA) sloping higher, indicating that the stock’s primary long-term price trend is positive. We also want to see the 50-day MA trading above the 100-day, as well as the 100-day trading above the 200-day MA. That indicates that short- and medium-term price momentum are both growing stronger. 

Additionally, positive action on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) line – with the MACD above the signal line – is also ideal. It’s another indication of strengthening price momentum. And, lastly, we want to make sure the stock isn’t “too hot” or overbought. That’s why we look for stocks where the relative strength index (RSI) measures less than 70. 

Now, on the sentimental side of things, we hope to find stocks that analysts are getting more bullish on and that have investors flocking to get positioned in. Specifically, we want to see earnings estimates moving higher and trading volume on the rise. 

Then we layer these technical and sentimental filters on top of the fundamental filters we’ve discussed to find the stocks that are strong in every way.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Dollar between (-) macro and (+) geopolitics

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Rising inflation expectations and tariff angst are threatening the path of the US economy towards a soft landing, a scenario that seemed increasingly more likely from October onwards. That was when economic momentum started gaining traction again as the labor market began outperforming expectations. The election of President Trump led to a one-off boost in confidence as small and medium sized enterprises bet on tax cuts and the cutting of red tape. Now this narrative is in danger of falling apart due to tariff confusion and lower growth.

Last week, for example, ended on a sour note as Trump and Zelenskiy clashed in the Oval Office due to multiple disagreements regarding the war in Ukraine. The joint press conference that should have followed was canceled, sending a stark signal to the rest of the world that an immediate peace deal seems out of reach. Geopolitics and tariff chatter have clearly been a net-negative factor for risk assets as of late.

To make matters worse, investors have started questioning the health of the US economy. Last week’s weaker than expected macro data and front-loading of imports before US companies are hit by tariffs lead to a drastic drop of growth expectations. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast for Q1 fell from 2.3% to 1.5%, a decline only seen during periods of significant turmoil or crises. Inflation published on Friday was in line with expectations with the PCE index rising by 0.3% m/m in January. However, personal spending fell by 0.2%, the first decline in almost two years.

The dollar rose for a third consecutive session and is currently only supported by the geopolitical uncertainty as the macro picture looks increasingly bad. Investors went from pricing in one rate cut by the Fed just days ago to now expecting three for 2025. This is reflected in Treasuries as well. The 2-year yield fell below 4% for the first time since October, matching the low of the US surprise index. This week’s labor market data will be the first large litmus test for the US economy and therefore the US dollar in some time.

Euro in the shadow of Trump

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The euro is once again feeling the force that geopolitical uncertainty can have on sentiment and markets. European sentiment as of late has been improving, although at a slower than expected pace. The US macro picture seems to be deteriorating, and investors are back at pricing in three rate cuts from the Fed. At the same time is the narrative surrounding policy easing by the ECB becoming more complicated as inflation is picking up again.

However, none of this mattered for investors concerned with the spat between Trump and Zelenskiy and the falling implied probability of a peace deal being reached in the near term. The euro pushed lower for a second consecutive week and is once again trading below the $1.04 mark. Investors expecting the ECB meeting on Thursday to be a new catalyst to push the currency in either direction might be disappointed.

The 25-basis point cut is fully priced in, so it will be about the forward guidance to play the role of the market mover. However, the uncertain trade and geopolitical environment will likely mean that policy makers should remain caution and sensitive to the news flow. Today’s inflation print for the Eurozone is expected to show some deceleration in inflation pressures. The bigger catalyst for renewed selling pressure might once again come from the political or macro front. We would need a significant surprise on the US labor market report on Friday to see some price action of above $1.05 or below $1.03.

Swinging with risk sentiment

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Having jumped to a more than 2-month high above $1.27 last week, GBP/USD is back flirting with the $1.26 handle following renewed geopolitical uncertainty as the hostile White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky threatens prospects of a US-brokered ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia. The risk sensitive pound slid against safe haven peers, but remains firm against the euro, with GBP/EUR closing the month above €1.21 for the first time since 2016.

The UK’s worsening net international investment position and the fact it has a persistent current account deficit leaves sterling reliant on foreign capital inflows. With this in mind, if we see a bigger drawdown in equity markets, then realistically the pound should come under pressure as well via the risk sentiment channel. However, on the trade front, Britain is way down on Trump’s list for tariffs, both because he likes the UK and because the UK-US trading relationship is much more balanced than most, with US actually having a goods trade surplus with the UK. This is why sterling is viewed as a tariff haven of sorts. Indeed, the FX options market reveals that one-week risk reversals are least bearish on sterling right now versus most of the G10.

The main upside risk for sterling this week is if President Trump reverses or delays increases to tariffs on Mexico and Canada that are scheduled for Tuesday as this would likely boost risk sentiment across the board. Moreover, if the influx of US data disappoints this week, particularly the labour market report on Friday, this could help the pound resume its recovery back above $1.27 versus the dollar.

Dollar jumps despite yield slump

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 3-7

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.