Archives February 2025

Businesses worldwide are embracing real-time payments to cut costs and stay competitive in a digital economy.     

Real-time payments (RTP) are rapidly transforming the way businesses move money, offering near-instant transfers that enable greater liquidity management and operational efficiency. Once primarily the domain of consumers, RTP—by which funds are sent and received in under 10 seconds—are increasingly becoming a critical tool for businesses looking to optimize cash flow, reduce reliance on costly intermediaries, and gain a competitive edge in an era of digital finance.

Despite reaching $22 trillion in turnover in 2024, according to Juniper Research, the high cost of digital transfers has kept many businesses on the sidelines. However, that is about to change, with global RTP volumes projected by Juniper to more than double to $58 trillion by 2028, driven by regulatory changes, technological advancements, and evolving business needs.

Key drivers behind RTP’s rapid expansion include growing corporate demand for instant liquidity, advancements in payment technology, and government initiatives aimed at promoting cashless economies.

“Businesses are beginning to realize the strategic benefits of real-time payments: not just speed, but enhanced control over working capital, and reduced counterparty risk,” says Matthew Purnell, a senior research analyst at Juniper Research.

The Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) Instant Credit Transfer regulations, that took effect in the European Union (EU) in January, are poised to accelerate business adoption by mandating that eurozone RTP transactions be priced the same as standard credit transfers. Meanwhile, in the US, networks such as the Clearing House RTP and the Federal Reserve’s FedNow are increasing transaction limits to accommodate larger business payments.

While RTP adoption in developed markets has been gradual due to entrenched reliance on traditional payment systems, emerging markets such as India, China, and Brazil have experienced explosive growth. India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) processed an astonishing 172 billion transactions in 2024, valued at nearly $2.9 trillion, a 46% increase in the number of transactions and a 35% increase in value over the previous year.

The surge in RTP adoption in developing economies is largely due to the absence of widespread debit and credit card penetration, offering businesses and consumers alike an accessible digital-payment solution. “RTP provides an accessible payment solution for a population that is becoming increasingly banked,” Purnell adds.

Three Factors Fueling RTP Adoption

Purnell points to three major factors driving the adoption of RTP. First, the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated demand for digital transactions as businesses sought alternatives to in-person payments and cash handling. Second, advances in technology, such as smartphones equipped with digital wallets like Google Pay, and the proliferation of 5G wireless coverage, have made RTP more widely available. Finally, governments worldwide—from Sweden to Japan—are implementing policies to encourage the transition to cashless economies.

Among the most successful implementations of RTP in emerging markets, India’s UPI is a leading example of how RTP can drive economic inclusion while offering businesses a scalable and efficient payment solution. Designed by a government agency, the UPI framework seamlessly connects users’ smartphones with banks and the national digital identity system, providing near-universal access to banking services.

“Globally, UPI is among the most successful retail fast payment systems (FPS),” say economists at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and other institutions in a BIS report published at the end of last year. “Like other widely adopted FPS, it provides simplicity, safety and security to person-to-person and person-to-merchant transactions.” Unlike China’s payment ecosystem, where dominant players restrict access to competitors, UPI fosters an open environment that allows multiple companies to operate within the same system—encouraging innovation and competition.

Big Hurdle For Business Is High Cost

As the Indian example illustrates, consumers have until recently been the primary beneficiaries of RTP, with apps like Venmo in the US and Alipay in China allowing customers to pay for a Starbucks Frappuccino or split the cost of a meal with a half dozen friends. However, businesses have been relatively slow to utilize the technology for making business-to-business payments due to several hurdles—primarily cost. As a result, less than 10% of RTP transactions in Europe, for example, originate from companies.

“The one thing that’s holding back business adoption is differential pricing,” says Uzayr Jeenah, a Toronto-based leader in the global payments practice at consulting firm McKinsey. “Real-time payments are anywhere from three to five times more expensive for a business than a traditional payment rail,” he says, referring to the term for digital-payment infrastructure.

Nonetheless, the rationale for businesses to adopt RTP is becoming more compelling as a replacement for debit cards and wire transfers. One factor is speed. Being able to pay bills on the day they fall due allows companies to retain funds in their bank accounts longer, allowing a “float” that can earn significant interest revenue. In addition, applications driven by artificial intelligence (AI) have emerged that allow companies to carry out many transactions using digital payments without human intervention, reducing the need for accounting and other financial staff.

Jeenah says the implementation of the EU’s Instant Payments Regulation, adopted in March 2024 and encompassing SEPA, will be a “big catalyst for change” in RTP pricing this year.

“In most of the eurozone, there is no charge for a standard credit transfer,” says Scott McInnes, a partner in the Brussels office of Bird & Bird who specializes in payment questions. He adds that this probably means RTP for most businesses in Europe will have no cost. “I think in the near future virtually all business payments in the EU are going to real time because the system is going to be free, or virtually free,” McInnes says.

McInnes says the EU was motivated in part by a desire to offer a European alternative to credit and debit card issuers such as Visa and Mastercard, US card services corporations that charge high transaction fees to merchants.

New EU Regulation Will Ease Barriers For Business

The EU RTP regulation, SEPA Instant, will begin affecting outgoing payments in October for eurozone payment providers, including banks and fintech companies. Payment providers outside the eurozone will have until 2027 to comply, allowing time to address settlement challenges related to different currencies.

Susan Barton, director of Financial Services at EY Advisory in Milan, says SEPA Instant offers additional benefits for businesses. It removes the previous €100,000 (about $105,000) limit on individual payments and allows for batch processing—enabling companies to process up to 15,000 payments simultaneously, all within 10 seconds.

“There are positive impacts from a company’s treasury point of view, and benefits of knowing exactly when you’re paying people,” Barton says. “You pay all your employees, and that goes out immediately. It doesn’t take three to four days. It just helps a business with cash management.”

The EU rules will also impact foreign banks with eurozone branches, creating potential pathways for RTP expansion beyond the euro. For instance, a UK bank with a branch in Paris could receive instant payments via the UK Faster Payment system, and the bank could make euro-denominated RTP transactions through its European branch.

Australia’s New Payments Platform (NPP) also imposes no upper limit on transaction amounts, a trend designed to benefit large businesses handling substantial transactions to settle invoices. “You can do any transaction size over NPP,” says McKinsey’s Jeenah. “You’re starting to see even more business adoption there.” However, individual banks leveraging the NPP infrastructure retain the ability to set their own transaction limits. The NPP system is operated by Payments Plus, a company formed from the 2022 merger of domestic payment providers BPAY Group, eftpos, and NPP Australia.

In contrast, the two US RTP systems—the Clearing House’s RTP network and FedNow—both impose limits. The Clearing House recently raised its transaction cap from $1 million to $10 million, effective February 9, while FedNow currently maintains a limit of $100,000 per transaction, though financial institutions can request a boost to $500,000.

The Challenges Of Cross-Border RTPs

A major drawback of existing RTP systems is their domestic focus, with limited capabilities for cross-border transactions—except in the eurozone, where the euro provides a common currency. This presents a significant challenge for companies with global supply chains that require rapid payment transfers to overseas vendors. According to Statista, the total value of cross-border payments was approximately $190 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach $290 trillion by 2030, highlighting the sector’s rapid expansion and the growing demand for innovation.

Currently, most cross-border transactions rely on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) network, which does not transfer funds directly but rather facilitates payment orders between banks using intermediary correspondent banks to settle transactions. However, Swift transactions are costly and can take several days—posing a challenge for businesses operating in fast-paced international markets.

Several fintech companies, such as London-based Wise (formerly TransferWise); and Harbour & Hills, based in Hong Kong, have entered the market to provide faster, lower-cost alternatives to Swift. These fintechs facilitate cross-border payments by leveraging their internal networks to move funds locally rather than relying on interbank transfers. While this reduces costs, these services do not always provide significant improvements in speed.

The BIS is working to connect domestic RTP systems globally through Project Nexus, a central hub that allows payment networks to link to a single platform rather than integrating with each other individually. Project Nexus involves central banks from Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and India, with Indonesia as a special observer, aiming to enable seamless cross-border transactions among these nations by 2026.

A similar initiative was launched in 2021 in the Nordic region under the P27 Nordic Payments network, a joint venture of six regional banks aimed at enabling RTP across Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway. However, P27 struggled due to political differences and failed to incorporate key players such as Norway’s Vipps and Denmark’s MobilePay. Those two popular mobile wallet providers merged in 2022 to form Vipps MobilePay. In April 2023, P27 withdrew its clearing license application, with CEO Paula de Silva admitting the project was “too ambitious and complex.”

“The primary challenge for cross-border RTP is not just speed, but settlement,” says Niklas Lemberg, head of industry engagement at Finnish bank Nordea. “The money needs to change owners instantaneously, and it has to be done using central bank money.”

New Solutions For Instant Cross-Border Settlements

In October 2024, J.P. Morgan introduced Wire365, a 24/7 US dollar settlement system that allows businesses to settle transactions globally at any time—marking a significant step toward continuous, real-time cross-border payments.

Meanwhile, distributed ledger technology, such as blockchain, is being explored as an alternative for real-time cross-border payments. Ripple Labs, a fintech based in San Francisco, has developed its own cryptocurrency, XRP, to facilitate near-instant global transactions. Funds are converted to XRP as an intermediary currency and then settled in the recipient’s local currency. However, concerns over cryptocurrency volatility have deterred some businesses from adoption.

To address volatility, Ripple has introduced a stablecoin, RLUSD, pegged to the US dollar. This allows businesses to transfer funds without exposure to currency fluctuations—potentially offering a more attractive cross-border payment solution.

Are Central Bank Digital Currencies The Future Of RTPs?

Central banks are also exploring their own solutions, with China’s digital yuan leading the way as the most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC) to date. China’s digital yuan pilot had already processed $986 billion in transactions by the end of the second quarter of 2024, according to the country’s central bank deputy governor.

The European Central Bank is also pursuing a digital euro, with a decision on its future implementation expected at the end of 2025. Unlike cryptocurrencies, CBDCs would operate on private distributed ledgers, reducing transaction costs and enhancing transparency while maintaining regulatory oversight.

CBDCs could revolutionize cross-border payments by eliminating intermediaries, lowering costs, and enabling real-time tracking of transactions—providing businesses with greater efficiency and security.

A Cautionary Note About RTP Growth

Despite the opportunities RTP presents, potential risks exist for banks and financial institutions. A November 2024 paper entitled The Effect of Instant Payments on the Banking System: Liquidity Transformation and Risk-Taking, by writers at Brazil’s central bank, Columbia University, and the Wharton School of Business, warns that RTP adoption could increase liquidity pressures and risk-taking behavior.

The study suggests that RTP could limit banks’ ability to manage payment flows, forcing the banks to hold larger liquid asset buffers at the expense of higher yielding, less liquid investments. “Banks are effectively becoming ‘narrower,’” the report cautions.

However, as technology and regulatory frameworks continue to evolve, the business case for RTP adoption is expected to grow exponentially. The expanding use cases for RTP—including factoring and AI-driven payment automation—present a compelling opportunity for businesses to enhance their financial operations and gain a competitive advantage.

The rapid rise of this fast-format cricket, led by the Indian Premier League, is fueling multi-billion-dollar investments, as franchises expand into new leagues and untapped markets.

Once a sport defined by tradition and endurance, cricket is now at the center of a modern gold rush. The explosive growth of Twenty20 (T20) cricket—a fast-paced, three-hour format instead of the traditional five days—has turned the game into a commercial powerhouse, attracting global investors eager to stake their claim.

The Indian Premier League (IPL), launched in 2008, has been the driving force behind this transformation, generating record-breaking revenues and inspiring the creation of T20 leagues across the world.

As of 2024, the IPL’s total value is $16.4 billion, according to a study by Houlihan Lokey, a leading valuation authority. With its broadcast rights selling for $6.02 billion, investors are aggressively expanding their portfolios, buying into leagues in South Africa, the UAE, England, the US and beyond. Established IPL franchise owners are leading the charge, while new entrants, including tech billionaires and Bollywood stars, are fueling the sport’s rapid globalization.

The IPL’s Financial Power

Tata Group, the IPL’s title sponsor for 2024–2028, pays an annual sponsorship fee of $58 million. The league generates approximately $1.2 billion per year from broadcasting and sponsorships, seventh most in the sports world, but ranks as the second most valuable sports league globally in broadcasting rights on a per-match basis, earning $17 million per game—trailing only the NFL, which earns about $37 million per game.

Having found success in the IPL, franchise owners are now backing new leagues worldwide. In South Africa’s SA20, all six teams are owned by IPL investors. The UAE’s ILT20 has drawn backing from Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan, as well as business giants like GMR, Adani, Lancer Capital, and Capri Global.

Reliance, owner of the Mumbai Indians, is at the forefront of global expansion, acquiring a 49% stake in the Oval Invincibles for $74 million—the highest franchise price in England’s “Hundred” competition. Reliance also owns MI Cape Town (SA20), MI Emirates (ILT20), and MI New York (Major League Cricket).

Other IPL stakeholders are following suit. RPSG Group, owner of the Lucknow Super Giants, acquired a 70% stake in the Manchester Originals for $100 million and also owns the Durban, South Africa, franchise in SA20. Sun Group, owner of Sunrisers Hyderabad, purchased the Northern Superchargers for $125 million, while GMR Group, co-owner of the Delhi Capitals, invested $149 million in Hampshire.

New Investors Enter the Game

The T20 boom is also attracting fresh capital from outside traditional cricket circles. A billionaire tech consortium led by Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has agreed to buy a 49% stake in London Spirit for $180 million.

In the U.S., approximately $850 million is being invested to establish a professional cricket league, with Major League Cricket receiving $120 million in funding from investors including Satya Nadella and Ross Perot Jr. to develop stadiums and training facilities.

Cricket’s return to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles after a 128-year absence is expected to further accelerate the sport’s global reach. Meanwhile, Europe is joining the T20 movement, with the inaugural European T20 Premier League—featuring teams from Ireland, Scotland, and the Netherlands—set to launch in July 2025. Indian actor Abhishek Bachchan is among its co-owners.

As the sport continues its expansion, new markets are emerging. Saudi Arabia, which hosted an IPL player auction last November, is positioning itself as cricket’s next major destination. With billions pouring into T20, cricket is no longer just a game—it’s a rapidly growing global empire.

Written by the Market Insights Team

USD/CAD trading back above 1.43

Kevin Ford –FX & Macro Strategist

Despite weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence and macro data softening the US Dollar, the Loonie remains tied to tariff news, gradually approaching the 1.435 level. Throughout the week, markets have been flooded with President Trump headlines, causing uncertainty around his policies and driving investors towards safe-havens. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 4.3% yesterday, its lowest level since mid-December, and WTI oil dropped below $70 a barrel. FX markets seem more resistant to tariff news for now, awaiting clearer direction before March 4^th. The Loonie however, is the pivotal gauge amidst tariff discussions. Speculation about another push towards April 1^st has grown, but Trump’s recent remarks keep investors guessing.

Separately, the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index hit its lowest level in February since September 2024, sparking renewed fears of an economic slowdown. Recent US macro data suggests a slowdown rather than a recession. Last week’s weaker housing starts and existing home sales figures followed a similar trend in retail sales from the previous week. More significantly, the Services PMI dropped below the critical 50 mark, signaling stronger economic weakening, as the services sector accounts for about 60% of US GDP. The latest University of Michigan survey also shows a decline in consumer confidence. Policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs and potential government layoffs, seem to be impacting economic momentum. This might be the first time in a while that markets haven’t shrugged off bad economic news, as growth becomes the focus and investors reassess the impact of Trump’s administration policies on the economy.

Today’s data calendar is relatively quiet in both the US and Canada. News around fiscal policies and tariffs from the US will be the focus. In the US, the House of Representatives has passed a budget proposal bill that sets the stage for approximately $4 trillion in tax cuts. While it doesn’t specify changes to individual spending or revenue plans, it suggests a $2 trillion reduction in Medicaid spending. Additionally, the bill aims to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, thus delaying the risk of a government shutdown.

Trump’s tax plans optimism

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

US stocks closed at a five-week low and bonds soared yesterday as another disappointing reading on the US consumer fuelled concern about the health of the world’s largest economy. The US dollar index also retreated after US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that US yields and the dollar will drop lower due to the Trump policy even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps rates on hold. However, both the dollar and Treasury futures have gone into reverse after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint, paving the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.

The twists and turns in macro and political developments are keeping investors on edge and financial markets volatile. The growth-scare narrative in the US worsened on Tuesday as a closely watched measure of consumer confidence fell by the most since August 2021 in February on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy. That prompted traders to boost bets on Fed rate cuts this year even as inflation pressures seem to be intensifying. Treasury yields fell to their  lowest levels in 2025. A gauge of megacaps extended a plunge from its peak to more than 10%, Bitcoin and the wider crypto-market suffered substantial losses and the US dollar index closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time since October 2024. A lot of the sudden moves look to be part of a reversal in the Trump trade and a growing narrative of softening consumption in the US driving Fed easing bets.

However, the tax cut plans have halted the slide in equities and the dollar, whilst Treasuries have steadied. Republicans have defended the cuts, insisting they will stimulate economic growth and, along with other Trump measures such as tariffs, limit increases to the deficit. The refocus on fiscal matters might help the dollar temporarily and divert attention from weak consumer activity until tariffs become a priority again next week.

Euro faltering at $1.05

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The euro has staged a prominent appreciation against the US dollar in February, despite having fallen to an over 2-year low earlier in the month. EUR/USD has risen around 4% from near $1.01 to testing the key psychological (and resistance) handle of $1.05, though still six cents below its 5-year average.

A cyclically-driven turn in the US dollar has been noteworthy, with soft US economic data disappointing, helping EUR/USD rebound, but hard data remains robust for now. Reports of a possible peace agreement in Ukraine is also seen as providing a modest boost to EU economies, mainly due to higher military spending prompted by increased security fears, plus lower gas prices alleviating energy cost concerns and providing further support to the euro. Tariff fatigue also set in, allowing risk appetite to improve, aiding the pro-cyclical euro. Germany’s election results, despite bringing relief, has so far failed to enhance the euro’s uplift meaningfully though.

Stability in rates markets has also failed to boost the euro. The inverse relationship EUR/USD usually has with the MOVE index (volatility in fixed income), decoupled around the US election. The index is down around 16% since then and was recently trading near its lowest levels since early 2022. All else being equal, EUR/USD should’ve risen above $1.10.

But of course a huge variety of variables drive FX, and the weight those variables have on currencies often fluctuates. As a result, EUR/USD’s struggle to convincingly break north of $1.05 of late implies that hopes of sustained rally might be pinned more on a substantial turn in the US economy, though predicting the timing on that front is difficult.

Pound lacking fresh catalyst against euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Sterling rallied to near its highest level of 2025 against the euro last week, and remains over two cents above its year-to-date low of €1.18 and well above its 5-year average of €1.16. GBP/EUR has been in a steady, healthy, uptrend for the best part of two years, enduring just six months of modest losses over this period and gaining almost 8% overall. There are some reasons to expect more gains over the course of 2025, but the absence of a fresh positive catalyst could limit upside potential.

Though excess euro pessimism is arguably here, the euro domestic context, both cyclical and political, remains euro-negative at this stage. Although the UK economy is expected to grow only ~1% this year, recent activity data has been more upbeat. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy is expected to grow around 0.9%, with stronger US protectionism limiting growth in both regions. If and how US President Trump delivers on his tariff threats remains to be seen, but the UK should fare better than the Eurozone under most scenarios given the majority of UK sales to the US are services. Political uncertainty is also higher across Europe versus the UK, though the German election result has boosted hopes of pro-growth structural changes in Europe’s largest economy. The most significant bullish factor supporting GBP/EUR though is interest rate differentials. The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates more than the Bank of England (BoE) this year. Still-elevated UK wage growth and services inflation supports this assumption. That said, this is likely priced into the exchange rate and in fact, the real rate differential (taking into account inflation) suggests €1.19 is a fairer value.

So, where to next for sterling versus the euro? Barring any major deviations in the above (slightly stronger UK growth, less political uncertainty and fewer BoE rate cuts), GBP/EUR should remain supported and we don’t see a major trend reversal occurring anytime soon. However, the pair continues to bump into resistance around €1.21, which is near the upper limit of the post-Brexit vote range since 2016. We need a decisive break above here to establish a new higher trading range.

Equities, oil and yields lower

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: February 24-28

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Aussie pressured by commodity sell-off

The US dollar was higher overnight, rebounding from two-month lows, as a sell-off in commodities hit currencies like the Australian dollar.

Crude oil fell to the lowest level of the year so far on worries about US growth while natural gas dropped more than 6.0% overnight.

Copper dropped 1.0% as US president Donald Trump launched a probe into copper imports sparking fears of new tariffs as seen on aluminum and steel.

Across FX markets, the Australian dollar was hit the hardest, with the AUD/USD down 0.7% as it fell to two-week lows.

The NZD/USD fell 0.6% as this pair hit one-week lows.

In Asia, the USD/SGD climbed 0.2%, nearing one-week highs, while USD/CNH also gained 0.2% as it also reached one-week highs.

USD GDP revision to drive greenback moves

Tonight, the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP will be released at 12.30am AEDT. We anticipate that the 2.3% real GDP growth in Q4 will be reduced to 2.1% q-o-q

Our forecasts for PCE and inventory investment decreased as a result of retail sales and corporate inventories coming in lower than the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)’s original projections.

Furthermore, trade data indicates that net exports were somewhat lower than BEA had initially predicted.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded slightly yesterday, climbing from two-month lows, as the market expects Trump’s higher tariffs will lead to higher inflation woes, which may keep Fed higher for longer. A stronger GDP number tonight could push the USD further higher.

GBP defies soft business mood

This Friday will see the publishing of the UK Lloyds business barometer.

The headline balance of this poll was 37 in January, which is much less than the 50 reported just six months prior, even if it is higher than the pre-pandemic average of 30.

This study will also focus on the pricing expectations balance, which is still quite high at 59 compared to its prepandemic average of 38, and the staffing levels balance, which has also been declining.

The British pound has been recently stronger, but the GBP/USD faces key resistance through the 1.27-28 region.

This GBP strength has seen big moves in other markets – the AUD/GBP and NZD/GBP are both near the 2025 lows while GBP/SGD is at six-week highs.

Aussie, kiwi tumble to the lower end of the range

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 24 February – 1 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.