Archives February 2025

After the aluminum 5 Francs 1984 and 1992 (KM#15), the Union of the Comoros released this new small circulation 5 francs type dated 2017.



My friend Murtaza Karimjee still has some stock of this interesting type in his eBay store.

TECHNICAL DATA
Composition: stainless steel
Diameter: 15.00 mm
Weight: 1.85 g
Edge: plain



(news and image from Wolfgang Schuster)

Updated on February 20th, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is one of the world’s largest and most well-known energy stocks. It is also one of the energy sector’s most stable dividend growth companies, having grown its dividend for 38 consecutive years.

As a result, Chevron is a member of the exclusive Dividend Aristocrats – a group of 69 elite dividend stocks with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases.

We believe the Dividend Aristocrats are some of the highest-quality dividend stocks in the entire stock market. With this in mind, we created a full list of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and P/E ratios.

You can download a copy of our full Dividend Aristocrats list by clicking on the link below:

 

Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.

Due to the industry’s reliance on high commodity prices for profitability, only two oil stocks are on the list of Dividend Aristocrats: Chevron and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Chevron’s dividend consistency and stability help it stand out in the otherwise volatile energy industry. This article will analyze Chevron’s intermediate-term investment prospects.

Business Overview

Chevron is one of 6 integrated oil and gas super-majors, along with:

• BP (BP)
• Eni SpA (E)
• TotalEnergies (TTE)
• Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• Shell (SHEL)

Like the other integrated supermajors, Chevron engages in upstream oil and gas production and downstream refining businesses. In 2023, Chevron generated 74% of its earnings from its upstream segment. Therefore, it is highly sensitive to the underlying commodity price.

Global oil demand has continued to increase in the years since the coronavirus pandemic steadily. Separately, oil and gas prices have been elevated due to the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia. Before the sanctions, Russia was producing about 10% of global oil output and one-third of natural gas consumed in Europe.

The benefit from these exceptionally favorable conditions was evident in Chevron’s performance in 2022, although conditions softened in 2023 and 2024 as oil and gas prices moderated off their peaks.

Still, Chevron is posting strong financial results. At the end of January, Chevron reported (1/31/25) earnings for the fourth quarter and full year. The company fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $3.2 billion ($1.84 per share), up from $2.3 billion in 2023, with adjusted earnings at $3.6 billion. The company returned a record $27 billion to shareholders, including $15.2 billion in buybacks and $11.8 billion in dividends. The board approved a 5% dividend increase to $1.71 per share. Full-year earnings totaled $17.7 billion, though lower refining margins and asset retirement costs impacted cash flow.

Production hit record levels, with global output up 7% and U.S. production rising 19%, driven by growth in the Permian Basin and PDC Energy integration. Key projects included the Anchor deepwater development in the Gulf of Mexico and the Future Growth Project in Kazakhstan. Chevron also divested assets in Canada, Alaska, and the Republic of Congo while advancing its $53 billion acquisition of Hess. The company aims for $2–3 billion in cost savings by 2026.

Chevron expanded low-carbon initiatives, cutting emissions by 700,000 metric tons and increasing carbon storage efforts. It upgraded refining capabilities in Pasadena, Texas, and secured new exploration acreage worldwide. The company also launched a $500 million Future Energy Fund III to invest in clean energy technologies while maintaining its focus on capital discipline and long-term growth.

Growth Prospects

Chevron is one of the largest publicly traded energy corporations in the world and stands to benefit tremendously from elevated prices of oil and gas.

Chevron invested heavily in growth projects for years but failed to grow its output for an entire decade, as oil projects take several years to start bearing fruit. However, Chevron is now in the positive phase of its investing cycle.

Source: Investor Presentation

In addition, thanks to the high-grading of its asset portfolio, Chevron can fund its dividend even at an oil price of $40.

Another long-term growth catalyst is Chevron’s major acquisition. On October 23rd, 2023, Chevron agreed to Acquire Hess (HES) for $53 billion in an all-stock deal. Thanks to this deal, Chevron will purchase the highly profitable Stabroek block in Guyana and Bakken assets, greatly enhancing its production and free cash flow.

Nevertheless, given the nearly all-time high earnings-per-share expected this year, we expect an -5 % average annual decrease over the next five years.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Chevron’s competitive advantage in the highly cyclical energy sector comes primarily from its size and financial strength. The company’s operational expertise allowed it to navigate the 2020 coronavirus pandemic successfully.

As a commodity producer, Chevron is vulnerable to any oil price downturn, particularly given that it is the most leveraged oil major to the oil price. However, thanks to its strong balance sheet, the company is likely to endure the next downturn, just like it has done in all the previous downturns.

Chevron’s aggressive cost-cutting efforts have helped the company become more efficient. Chevron has continued to reduce drilling costs, significantly reducing its break-even expense.

Chevron stacks up well among its peers in the energy sector. However, the company is certainly not the most recession-resistant Dividend Aristocrat, as evidenced by its performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis:

• 2007 adjusted earnings-per-share: $8.77
• 2008 adjusted earnings-per-share: $11.67 (33% increase)
• 2009 adjusted earnings-per-share: $5.24 (-55% decline)
• 2010 adjusted earnings-per-share: $9.48 (81% increase)

Chevron’s adjusted earnings per share declined by more than 50% during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but the company managed to remain profitable during a bear market that drove many of its competitors out of business.

This allowed Chevron to continue raising its dividend payment throughout the Great Recession. Chevron’s dividend safety is far above the average company in the energy sector.

Valuation & Expected Total Returns

Chevron’s expected total returns are more difficult to assess than those of many other companies. This is primarily due to the company’s highly volatile results, which result from the dramatic swings in oil and gas prices.

With a share price near $158, the price-to-earnings ratio presently sits 14.8 times based on 2025 expected earnings of $10.70 per share.

If the stock reverted to our fair value estimate of 14 times earnings, this would imply a fractional valuation headwind over the next five years.

Moreover, the stock offers a 4.4% dividend yield. However, the valuation tailwind and the dividend are likely to be offset by the expected 5% average annual decline in earnings per share.

Overall, the stock could generate a -0.5% average annual return over the next five years off its nearly all-time high current stock price.

Final Thoughts

Chevron is one of the rare oil and gas companies that was able to navigate through the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the oil downturn of 2014-2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic without cutting its dividend.

Chevron’s lower cost structure allows it to handle a much lower average oil price. Furthermore, new projects in the U.S. and international markets will help the company continue to grow.

Nevertheless, as we are nearing the peak of the oil industry’s cycle, which is infamous for its dramatic swings, Chevron should probably be avoided around its current stock price.

Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:

If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:

The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:

Editor’s note: “An Outperforming Investment Tool to Help You Game the Market” was previously published in January 2025 with the title, “Introducing: An Outperforming Investment Tool to Help You Game the Market.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

For the past several months, since it became clear that Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the stock market has been highly volatile. 

The S&P 500 rallied 4% in the week after the election – only to crash 3% the following week. Then stocks rose 4% into December just to sink 5% by the month’s end… popped 6% higher in mid-January before dropping 3% after the inauguration. And here in February, stocks gained 4% in the first few weeks of the month, then flopped about 4% over the past week. 

Wall Street has been stuck on a roller-coaster ride since early November. 

With all this volatility, investors are dying to know what the next four years will look like for stocks under “Trump 2.0.” Is this unpredictability the new normal?

Possibly… 

I have six words of advice for this era: embrace the boom, beware the bust. 

Embrace the Boom; Beware the Bust

Thanks in large part to the AI investment megatrend and long-awaited rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market has been booming for the past two years. 

That is, the craze around artificial intelligence has sparked an exceptional surge in investment. Companies have been racing to create the infrastructure necessary to support next-gen AI. Indeed, Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) – pretty much all the world’s major tech companies continue to spend billions upon billions of dollars to build new AI data centers, create new applications, hire more engineers, etc. And all that investment has created a major economic boom.

Meanwhile, throughout 2022 – after embarking on the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in nearly 50 years – the Federal Reserve finally slowed its pace of hikes. And here in 2024, the central bank actually started to cut rates. This has provided much-needed relief to consumers looking to finance big purchases and businesses looking to make new investments. This relief has also helped support an economic boom.

The result? Stocks have been soaring for two years. 

Since hitting its lows in October 2022 – just over two years ago – the S&P has surged more than 70% higher. In fact, it just posted its second consecutive year of 20%-plus gains. 

The index rose 24% in 2023. It popped another 23% in ’24. That is just the fourth time since the Great Depression – nearly 100 years ago – that the S&P 500 rallied more than 20% in back-to-back years. 

We are unequivocally in a stock market boom. 

And in our view, this boom is about to get even ‘boomier.’ 

Written by the Market Insights Team

The global equity selloff continues, the US dollar’s rebound is gaining traction and Treasury yields are suffering their worst weekly slide since September. Investors are avoiding risky bets due to US President Donald Trump ratcheting up tariff threats, which has seen the euro pull back sharply from 2-month highs versus the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound is outperforming most G10 peers bar the dollar and franc this week and is eyeing its highest weekly close in over three years versus the euro. On the data docket today, all eyes are on the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Dollar balancing tariffs, weaker growth

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The trade and geopolitical news flows once again overshadowed what seemed to be a pretty important day for US macro developments. Durable goods, home sales, jobless claims and GDP data sent mixed signals about the state of the worlds largest economy. GDP grew by an annualized 2.3%, while unemployment claims rose to a 2-month high and tumbled for a second consecutive month. Overall, the data continues to point to weaker economic momentum ahead and the dollar would have depreciated against this backdrop would it not have been for the tariff news.

Markets once again reacted to fresh tariff announcements made by the US President. Donald Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect, while also hinting at potential new levies on China as soon as March. This bolstered the dollar against the Canadian Dollar and Mexican peso. However, the strengthening of the Greenback broadened out to most major currencies as well.

Beyond trade, Trump’s refusal to commit to a security backstop in Ukraine added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reiterated that the focus should first be on securing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, rather than discussing long-term military commitments.

Still, conviction around a sustained dollar rally is fading, as tariff fatigue and growth concerns begin to weigh on sentiment. Traders remain cautious despite the elevated trade uncertainty and lack of policy clarity. For now, FX markets remain driven by trade headlines, with the dollar benefiting from renewed tariff bets—but the long-term picture remains far from clear.

The US dollar index will likely end the week higher, a feat the dollar has only achieved once in the last seven weeks. The last hurdle to overcome is the US PCE report due today. The core figure could slow on a month-on-month basis. However, personal spending is expected to remain robust.

Euro back on the defence

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Fresh trade tensions are adding pressure to the euro, as President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and hinted at new levies on China. While the EU was not directly targeted, the risk of further escalation weighs on sentiment, especially with Trump’s criticism of European trade policies and VAT systems still lingering.

While the dollar initially rallied on the tariff news, conviction around sustained USD strength is fading, as the economic drag from higher trade barriers could outweigh short-term inflationary effects. For the euro, the uncertainty keeps upside limited, with EUR/USD hovering under $1.0400 as traders assess whether tariffs will remain a US-focused issue or expand further.

On the other hand, the ECB remains confident that policy is still restrictive, but the debate over future rate cuts is intensifying as per the meeting minutes released yesterday. A 25bp cut next week to 2.5% is expected, yet officials are divided. Some have shown worries about sticky services inflation and trade risks, while others fear weak growth and missing the 2% inflation target. The neutral rate remains a wildcard, with policymakers questioning its usefulness as a policy guide. Meanwhile, disinflation is on track, but wage growth and energy risks call for caution.

Risk sensitive or safe haven sterling?

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As we explained in yesterday’s report, the pound’s high yielding status is a double-edged sword in that when the market mood is upbeat, sterling tends to appreciate, but in deteriorating global risk conditions, the pound becomes more vulnerable. Hence, the latest bout of tariff angst has sent GBP/USD tumbling from $1.27 to $1.2570 in 24 hours. GBP/USD has erased its weekly gains and more, whilst several key moving averages continue to act as hurdles to the upside.

Apart from weakening against the US dollar though, some analysts think the FX market is viewing the pound as a tariff safe-haven of sorts, driven by confidence that the UK is less economically vulnerable to tariffs compared to major exporters like the EU. This is evidenced by sterling appreciating against the euro and holding above €1.21. If it closes the week above this level, it will be the highest weekly closing price in almost three years. If we look at sterling more broadly though, it appreciated against less than 50% of its global peers yesterday, which contradicts this sterling safe haven theory. Moreover, sterling’s vulnerability to global risk aversion due to its reliance on foreign capital inflows would likely limit any haven demand in our view.

Nevertheless, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer appeared constructive, with hopes of a trade deal boosting the odds of the UK avoiding tariffs. The UK is one of the only countries in the world to have a neutral trade relationship with the US in goods, so it’s hard to see how/why Trump would have imposed them anyway. But even if the UK does evade tariffs, a slowdown in global trade would still hurt the UK economy, which would weigh on the pro-cyclical pound.

Risk aversion drives stocks and yields lower

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: February 24-28

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.