Archives February 2025

“Today, history is made,” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen declared during a ceremony held in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, last month: “This is freedom, freedom from threats, freedom from blackmail.”

On Feb. 9, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania officially disconnected from the Russian-controlled Brell power grid. The following day, they successfully connected to the European Union’s electricity network.

The synchronization process with Europe also marked a crucial moment for continental integration. The transition, in the works since 2007, was accelerated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“This is truly something that has been a long time coming,” notes Michael Bradshaw, professor of Global Energy at the University of Warwick. “The switch removes the Baltic states from the Soviet-era electricity grid and from exposure to Russian manipulation, giving them a greater degree of energy independence on the one hand, and closer integration into the wider European electricity grid on the other.”

 A relic of the Soviet Union, the Brell—which stands for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—is primarily controlled by Moscow. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004, and have since invested heavily in infrastructure renovations, including building new mainland and undersea power lines. Still, their energy sectors remained vulnerable and reliant on Russia.

Despite managing to entirely cut energy purchases from Russia, the three countries continued to rely on the Brell grid to control frequencies and maintain a constant power supply, which can be more easily achieved in a large-scale synchronized network than in a smaller one. With a total cost of €1.6 billion ($1.67 billion), including €1.2 billion funded by the EU, Bradshaw says the project also speaks to a growing concern about “electricity security,” a term championed by the International Energy Agency as the electrification push and plans to decarbonize Europe’s energy system gather pace. “Electricity interconnection is important to balancing national grids, but as highlighted by the recent political crisis in Norway, where local electricity prices went up as the country was exporting a growing amount of power, it is also becoming a point of contention,” he argues.          

New bimetallic circulating commemorative:

“100th anniversary of the first international sports tournament in the territory of the Slovak Republic – the Ice Hockey European Championship“

TECHNICAL DATA
External ring: copper-nickel
Center disc: nickel-brass, nickel and nickel-brass three layers
Diameter: 25.75 mm
Weight: 8.50 g
Thickness: 2.20 mm
Designer: Karol Ličko
Mintage: 1 million
Mint: Mincovňa Kremnica (Slovakia)

Updated on February 28th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

High dividend stocks means more income for every dollar invested. All other things equal, the higher the dividend yield, the better.

Income investors often like to find low-priced dividend stocks, as they can buy more shares than they could with higher-priced securities.

In this research report, we analyze 13 stocks trading below $10.00 per share and offering high dividend yields of 5.0% and greater.

Additionally, the free high dividend stocks list spreadsheet below has our full list of individual securities (stocks, REITs, MLPs, etc.) with with 5%+ dividend yields.

 

Keep reading to see analysis on these 13 high-yielding securities trading below $10.00 per share. The list is sorted by dividend yield, in ascending order.

Table of Contents

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #13: Choice Properties REIT (PPRQF) – Dividend Yield of 5.6%

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in commercial real estate properties across Canada. The company has a high-quality real estate portfolio of over 700 properties which makes up over 60 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA).

Choice Properties’ portfolio is made up of over 700 properties, including retail, industrial, office, multi-family, and development assets. Over 500 of Choice Properties’ investments are to their largest tenant, Canada’s largest retailer, Loblaw.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP.UN) reported a net loss of $663 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared to a net income of $435.9 million for the same period in 2023.

This decline was primarily driven by a $1.26 billion unfavorable adjustment in fair value of the Trust’s Exchangeable Units, reflecting an increase in the Trust’s unit price.

However, the Trust saw positive performance in its operating metrics, with funds from operations (FFO) per unit diluted increasing by 3.2% to $0.258.

During the quarter, the Trust achieved a strong occupancy rate of 97.7%, led by retail (97.6%) and industrial (98.1%) sectors, and recorded a 3.0% year-over-year increase in Same-Asset NOI on a cash basis.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PPRQF (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #12: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) – Dividend Yield of 6.1%

Lexington Realty Trust owns equity and debt investments in single-tenant properties and land across the United States. The trust’s portfolio is primarily industrial equity investments.

The trust grows the industrial portfolio by financing, or by acquiring new investments with long-term leases, repositioning the portfolio by recycling capital and opportunistically taking advantage of capital markets.

Additionally, the company supplies investment advisory and asset management services for investors in the single-tenant net-lease asset market.

On February 13th, 2025, Lexington reported fourth quarter 2024 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. The trust announced adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.16 per share for the quarter, a penny short of the prior year quarter.

For Q4, the trust completed 1.0M square feet of new leases and lease extensions, which increased base and cash base rents by 66.3% and 42.6%, respectively. Lexington also invested $21 million in ongoing development projects. The trust’s stabilized industrial portfolio was 93.6% leased. At quarter end, Lexington had leverage of 5.9X net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on LXP (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #11: Ford Motor Co. (F) – Dividend Yield of 6.4%

Ford Motor Company was first incorporated in 1903 and in the past 120 years, it has become one of the world’s largest automakers. It operates a large financing business as well as its core manufacturing division, which produces a popular assortment of cars, trucks, and SUVs.

Ford posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 5th, 2025, and results were better than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 39 cents, which was seven cents ahead of estimates.

Revenue was up almost 5% year-over-year for the quarter to $48.2 billion, which also beat estimates by $5.37 billion. The fourth quarter was the highest revenue total the company has ever produced.

Ford Blue increased 4.2% to $27.3 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, beating estimates of $25.9 billion. Model e revenue was down 13% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, $400 million less than expected.

Ford Pro revenue was up 5.3% to $16.2 billion, beating estimates for $15.6 billion.

For this year, Ford expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $7 to $8.5 billion, and for adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, with capex of $8 to $9.5 billion.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Ford (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #10: Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY) – Dividend Yield of 6.5%

Kearny Financial Corp. is a bank holding company. Headquartered in Fairfield, New Jersey, the bank operates 43 branches, primarily in New Jersey along with a couple of locations in New York City. Over the years, Kearny has evolved from being a traditional thrift institution into a full-service community bank.

Kearny had enjoyed tremendous growth over the past decade as it executed on this strategy to enlarge and diversify the bank. However, the shift in the interest rate environment and uncertainty in the commercial real estate market has provoked significant uncertainty around Kearny’s operating outlook going forward.

Kearny reported a large loss tied to one-time expenses in 2024, and the company has been hampered by falling net interest income as well.

In the company’s Q2 2025 results, reported January 30th, 2025, Kearny reported a profit of $0.11 per share. This was up sharply from a 22 cent per share loss in the same period of the prior year, though that number reflects various one-time non-recurring charges.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on KRNY (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #9: Aegon Ltd. (AEG) – Dividend Yield of 6.7%

Aegon NV is a financial holding company based in the Netherlands. The company provides a wide range of financial services to clients, including insurance, pensions, and asset management.

Aegon has five core operating segments: Americas, Europe, Asia, Asset Management Holding and Other Activities. The firm’s most widely recognized brand is Transamerica, which Aegon acquired in 1999.

On February 20th, 2024, Aegon reported results for H2-2024. Operating capital grew 14% over the prior year’s period thanks to improved performance in the U.S. As Aegon expects to be hurt by lower interest rates, it provided guidance for essentially flat operating capital of €1.2 billion in 2025.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on AEG (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #8: Geopark Limited (GPRK) – Dividend Yield of 7.1%

GeoPark Limited (GPRK) explores and produces oil and natural gas in Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina and Brazil. It was founded in 2002, it is based in Bogota, Colombia. GeoPark is superior to other Latin American oil and gas producers in some aspects.

It has a market-leading drilling success rate of 81% and has drastically reduced its operating costs, from $19 per barrel in 2013 to $13 per barrel in 2023-2024. Approximately 90% of its production is cash flow positive even at Brent prices of $25-$30.

This means that GeoPark is a low-cost producer, which is of paramount importance in a commodity business. On the other hand, GeoPark is highly sensitive to the dramatic cycles of the prices of oil and gas. As a result, it has exhibited an extremely volatile performance record, with losses in 4 of the last 10 years.

In early November, GeoPark reported (11/6/24) financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. The average daily production of oil and gas decreased -4% over the prior year’s quarter, primarily due to the divestment of the Chilean business in January.

In addition, the price of oil incurred a correction. Nevertheless, thanks to lower operating costs and lower capital expenses, earnings-per-share rose 9%, from $0.44 to $0.48.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on GPRK (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #7: Clipper Realty (CLPR) – Dividend Yield of 8.1%

Clipper Realty is a Real Estate Investment Trust, or REIT, that was founded by the merger of four pre-existing real estate companies. The founders retain about 2/3 of the ownership and votes today, as they have never sold a share.

Clipper Properties owns commercial (primarily multifamily and office with a small sliver of retail) real estate across New York City.

Clipper Realty Inc. (CLPR) reported strong third-quarter 2024 results, with record revenues of $37.6 million, a 6.8% increase from the same period in 2023, driven largely by growth in residential leasing and higher occupancy.

Net operating income (NOI) reached a record $21.8 million, while adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) hit $7.8 million, or $0.18 per share, up from $6.3 million, or $0.15 per share, a year earlier.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CLPR (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #6: Itau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB) – Dividend Yield of 9.1%

Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The bank has operations across South America and other places like the United States, Portugal, Switzerland, China, Japan, etc.

On November 5th, 2024, Itaú Unibanco reported third-quarter results for 2024. The company reported recurring managerial result for the third quarter of 2024 was approximately $2.1 billion USD, reflecting a 6.0% increase from the previous quarter.

The recurring managerial return on equity stood at 22.7% on a consolidated basis and 23.8% for operations in Brazil. Total assets grew by 2.6%, surpassing $590 billion USD, while the loan portfolio increased by 1.9% globally and 2.1% in Brazil for the quarter, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9% and 10.0%, respectively.

Key drivers included personal, vehicle, and mortgage loans, which saw quarterly growth rates of 3.1%, 3.0%, and 3.9%, respectively.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ITUB (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #5: SFL Corporation (SFL) – Dividend Yield of 11.8%

Ship Finance International Ltd is an international shipping and chartering company. The company’s primary businesses include transporting crude oil and oil products, dry bulk and containerized cargos, as well as offshore drilling activities.

It owns 18 oil tankers, 15 dry bulk carriers, 38 container vessels, 7 car carriers, and 2 ultra-deep water drilling units. Ship Finance International operates primarily in Bermuda, Cyprus, Malta, Liberia, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the Marshall Islands.

On February 12th, 2025, SFL reported its Q4 and full-year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. SFL achieved total revenues of $229.1 million during the quarter, down 10.3% compared to the previous quarter.

This figure is lower than the cash received as it excludes approximately $9.9 million of charter hire, which is not identified as operating revenues pursuant to U.S. GAAP.

Net income came in at $20.2 million, or $0.15 per share, compared to $44.5 million, or $0.34 per share, in the previous quarter. No shares were repurchased during the quarter. About $90 million remains under SFL’s share repurchase plan.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SFL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #4: Prospect Capital (PSEC) – Dividend Yield of 12.5%

Prospect Capital Corporation is a Business Development Company, or BDC, that provides private debt and private equity to middle–market companies in the U.S.

The company focuses on direct lending to owner–operated companies, as well as sponsor–backed transactions. Prospect invests primarily in first and second lien senior loans and mezzanine debt, with occasional equity investments. 

Source: Investor Presentation

Prospect posted second quarter earnings on February 10th, 2025, and results were somewhat weak. Net investment income per-share acme to 20 cents, while total investment income fell from $211 million to $185 million year-over-year.

NII per-share fell from 21 cents in Q1, and 24 cents from the year-ago period. Total interest income was $169 million for the quarter, down from $185 million in the prior quarter, and $195 million a year ago. It also missed estimates by about $2 million.

Total originations were $135 million, down sharply from $291 million in the previous quarter. Total payments and sales were $383 million, up from $282 million in Q1. That implies net originations at -$248 million versus a net addition of just over $8 million in Q1. Q3-to-date originations so far are a net of +$91 million.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PSEC (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #3: Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) – Dividend Yield of 13.7%

Horizon Technology Finance Corp. is a BDC that provides venture capital to small and medium–sized companies in the technology, life sciences, and healthcare–IT sectors.

The company has generated attractive risk–adjusted returns through directly originated senior secured loans and additional capital appreciation through warrants.

Source: Investor Presentation

On October 29th, 2024, Horizon released its Q3 results for the period ending September 30th, 2024. For the quarter, total investment income fell 15.5% year-over-year to $24.6.7 million, primarily due to lower interest income on investments from the debt investment portfolio.

More specifically, the company’s dollar-weighted annualized yield on average debt investments in Q3 of 2024 and Q3 of 2023 was 15.9% and 17.1%, respectively.

Net investment income per share (IIS) fell to $0.32, down from $0.53 compared to Q3-2023. Net asset value (NAV) per share landed at $9.06, down from $9.12 sequentially.

After paying its monthly distributions, Horizon’s undistributed spillover income as of June 30th, 2024 was $1.27 per share, indicating a considerable cash cushion.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on HRZN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #2: Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) – Dividend Yield of 14.7%

Ellington Credit Co. acquires, invests in, and manages residential mortgage and real estate related assets. Ellington focuses primarily on residential mortgage-backed securities, specifically those backed by a U.S. Government agency or U.S. government–sponsored enterprise.

Agency MBS are created and backed by government agencies or enterprises, while non-agency MBS are not guaranteed by the government.

On November 12th, 2024, Ellington Residential reported its third quarter results for the period ending September 30th, 2024. The company generated net income of $5.4 million, or $0.21 per share.

Ellington achieved adjusted distributable earnings of $7.2 million in the quarter, leading to adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share, which covered the dividend paid in the period.

Net interest margin was 5.22% overall. At quarter end, Ellington had $25.7 million of cash and cash equivalents, and $96 million of other unencumbered assets.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on EARN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #1: Orchid Island Capital (ORC) – Dividend Yield of 16.4%

Orchid Island Capital is a mortgage REIT that is externally managed by Bimini Advisors LLC and focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including pass-through and structured agency RMBSs.

These financial instruments generate cash flow based on residential loans such as mortgages, subprime, and home-equity loans.

Source: Investor Presentation

The company reported a net income of $17.3 million, or $0.24 per common share, significantly improving from a net loss of $80.1 million in the same quarter last year. This net income comprised $0.3 million in net interest income and $4.3 million in total expenses.

Additionally, Orchid recorded net realized and unrealized gains of $21.2 million, or $0.29 per common share, from Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and derivative instruments, including interest rate swaps.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Final Thoughts

When a stock offers an exceptionally high dividend yield, it usually signals that its dividend is at the risk of being cut. This rule certainly applies to most of the above stocks.

Nevertheless, some of the above stocks are highly attractive now thanks to their cheap valuation and still-high yield even after a potential reasonable dividend cut.

If you are interested in finding high-quality dividend growth stocks and/or other high-yield securities and income securities, the following Sure Dividend resources will be useful:

High-Yield Individual Security Research

Other Sure Dividend Resources

Editor’s note: “An Expert Method to Overcome a Turbulent Stock Market” was previously published in January 2025 with the title, “How to Find Success Despite Wild Stock Market Volatility.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

When it comes to the stock market, it can be a bit like a hurricane at sea: powerful, unpredictable, and capable of turning calm waters into chaos in an instant.

We’ve been enduring our fair share of market chaos lately, with the S&P 500 seemingly up one week and down the next. Investors are practically begging for monotony. But wilder price action like this may be our new normal…

You see; historically speaking, the stock market averages about one bear market every five or six years. But in the past six years, we’ve had not one… not two… but three different bear markets. 

There was the flash crash of late 2018, which saw stocks briefly fall into a bear market right before the holidays. There was also the COVID crash of 2020, wherein stocks plunged in the fastest market crash in history. And then there was the inflation crash of 2022, when tech stocks were obliterated by sky-high interest rates. 

Three unforeseen bear markets in the past six years – that is wild. 

But, of course, on the other hand, we’ve also seen some huge stock market successes, too.

Navigating Both Flash Crashes & Fast Recoveries

On average, the stock market rises about 10% per year. But in 2024, stocks climbed 23%. They rose around 27% in 2021. And in 2019, stocks rallied about 29%.

In other words, over the past six years, the S&P 500 has achieved three different years with nearly 30% returns. As a matter of fact, of the stock market’s 10 best years since 1950, three have occurred since 2018. 

Three different bear markets and three of the best years ever for stocks – all within the past six years.

So, if the stock market has felt wild to you lately, that’s because it has been. 

But this wildness could be the new norm for Wall Street going forward. 

We can thank technology for that – at least, that’s my opinion. 

Why? Because algorithms run the market now. 

These days, algorithmic trading accounts for approximately 60- to 75% of total trading volume in the U.S. stock market. That means most trades are automatic, executed by bots adhering to pre-set parameters. 

And, unlike humans, robots don’t really ask why. They just do what they are programmed to. 

So, when something bad happens, all the algorithmic-driven systems rush toward an exit. And when something good happens, they race to get involved. That’s why, in my view, algorithmic trading creates crowding. 

As a result, we get wild swings in the market – both up and down. The algorithms drive momentum one way or the other, and the market follows. 

We get flash crashes and fast recoveries; big bear markets and massive bull runs; major meltdowns and momentous melt-ups. 

We get stock market volatility.

Written by the Market Insights Team

February wrap-up with unresolved tariff issues

Kevin Ford –FX & Macro Strategist

February is drawing to a close, and after five consecutive months of declines, the USD/CAD’s losing streak has eased near the 1.44 mark amidst heightened volatility and unresolved tariff issues. The Loonie has edged upward from its weekly low of 1.4182—resting just above the 20-week SMA—to a three-week high of 1.4453—a 271-pip increase. While no definitive trade policy decisions have been made, tariff risk premia keep the Loonie above 1.44. Contradictory messages about tariff plans for Canada and Mexico have heightened volatility, particularly in the USD/CAD, where implied volatility has surged with March 4^th just around the corner. A last-minute extension to April 2^nd isn’t ruled out, but volatility is expected until formal confirmation.

Volatility surged yesterday as equity markets grappled with escalating risk aversion. While Nvidia’s strong quarterly results initially offered a lift to markets, the optimism was short-lived. Risk aversion soon took the upper hand, driving the VIX index back above the critical 20 threshold. 

Amid this month’s chaos and volatility, one clear winner has emerged: the Canadian Liberals. PM Trudeau’s decision to prorogue parliament has benefited his party, which now leads the Conservatives in polls for the first time in years. The Liberals have gained momentum by taking a strong stance against Trump’s tariff threats and increasing investment in citizen-friendly infrastructure projects. Mark Carney has overtaken Chrystia Freeland as the most likely successor, with a final decision expected on March 9^th. As we enter March, Canadian politics will unfold against a backdrop of continued uncertainty and volatility.

Today, all eyes are on the US PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Any upside surprises could further unsettle market sentiment.

The key resistance at 1.445 has proven strong for the Loonie. 1.447 is the next level to monitor. Protection against a break above 1.45 adds pressure on the Loonie. The 60-day SMA at 1.433 serves as critical support if tariffs are delayed another month.

Next week’s packed macroeconomic calendar will provide a clearer picture of the US economy, with payrolls (Friday) and ISM manufacturing (Monday) as key data points. For Canada, manufacturing (Monday) and the unemployment rate (Friday) will take center stage.

Dollar balancing tariffs, weaker growth

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The trade and geopolitical news flows once again overshadowed what seemed to be a pretty important day for US macro developments. Durable goods, home sales, jobless claims and GDP data sent mixed signals about the state of the worlds largest economy. GDP grew by an annualized 2.3%, while unemployment claims rose to a 2-month high and tumbled for a second consecutive month. Overall, the data continues to point to weaker economic momentum ahead and the dollar would have depreciated against this backdrop would it not have been for the tariff news.

Markets once again reacted to fresh tariff announcements made by the US President. Donald Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect, while also hinting at potential new levies on China as soon as March. This bolstered the dollar against the Canadian Dollar and Mexican peso. However, the strengthening of the Greenback broadened out to most major currencies as well.

Beyond trade, Trump’s refusal to commit to a security backstop in Ukraine added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reiterated that the focus should first be on securing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, rather than discussing long-term military commitments.

Still, conviction around a sustained dollar rally is fading, as tariff fatigue and growth concerns begin to weigh on sentiment. Traders remain cautious despite the elevated trade uncertainty and lack of policy clarity. For now, FX markets remain driven by trade headlines, with the dollar benefiting from renewed tariff bets—but the long-term picture remains far from clear.

The US dollar index will likely end the week higher, a feat the dollar has only achieved once in the last seven weeks. The last hurdle to overcome is the US PCE report due today. The core figure could slow on a month-on-month basis. However, personal spending is expected to remain robust.

Euro back on the defence

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Fresh trade tensions are adding pressure to the euro, as President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and hinted at new levies on China. While the EU was not directly targeted, the risk of further escalation weighs on sentiment, especially with Trump’s criticism of European trade policies and VAT systems still lingering.

While the dollar initially rallied on the tariff news, conviction around sustained USD strength is fading, as the economic drag from higher trade barriers could outweigh short-term inflationary effects. For the euro, the uncertainty keeps upside limited, with EUR/USD hovering under $1.0400 as traders assess whether tariffs will remain a US-focused issue or expand further.

On the other hand, the ECB remains confident that policy is still restrictive, but the debate over future rate cuts is intensifying as per the meeting minutes released yesterday. A 25bp cut next week to 2.5% is expected, yet officials are divided. Some have shown worries about sticky services inflation and trade risks, while others fear weak growth and missing the 2% inflation target. The neutral rate remains a wildcard, with policymakers questioning its usefulness as a policy guide. Meanwhile, disinflation is on track, but wage growth and energy risks call for caution.

Risk sensitive or safe haven sterling?

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As we explained in yesterday’s report, the pound’s high yielding status is a double-edged sword in that when the market mood is upbeat, sterling tends to appreciate, but in deteriorating global risk conditions, the pound becomes more vulnerable. Hence, the latest bout of tariff angst has sent GBP/USD tumbling from $1.27 to $1.2570 in 24 hours. GBP/USD has erased its weekly gains and more, whilst several key moving averages continue to act as hurdles to the upside.

Apart from weakening against the US dollar though, some analysts think the FX market is viewing the pound as a tariff safe-haven of sorts, driven by confidence that the UK is less economically vulnerable to tariffs compared to major exporters like the EU. This is evidenced by sterling appreciating against all G10 peers this week bar the US dollar and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, if GBP/EUR closes the week above €1.21, it will be the highest weekly closing price in almost three years. If we look at sterling more broadly though, it appreciated against less than 50% of its global peers yesterday, which contradicts this sterling safe haven theory. Moreover, sterling’s vulnerability to global risk aversion due to its reliance on foreign capital inflows would likely limit any haven demand in our view.

Nevertheless, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer appeared constructive, with hopes of a trade deal boosting the odds of the UK avoiding tariffs. The UK is one of the only countries in the world to have a neutral trade relationship with the US in goods, so it’s hard to see how/why Trump would have imposed them anyway. But even if the UK does evade tariffs, a slowdown in global trade would still hurt the UK economy, which would weigh on the pro-cyclical pound.

Risk aversion drives stocks and yields lower

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: February 24-28

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Transnistria 1 ruble 2024 – Year of the Snake 2025

Stock futures edged higher Friday morning, rising after yesterday’s selloff driven by concerns over tech-sector strength and tariff costs; inflation is expected to decline slightly with today’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index; Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) shares were falling as tech stocks remained under pressure after AI stalwart Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings weighed on markets; President Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico would proceed; bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped below $80,000 to wipe out most of the gains registered since Trump’s election in November.

Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. Stock Futures Point Higher After Tech, Tariff Selloff

Stock futures pointed higher as investors looked to inflation data following yesterday’s selloff on tariff and tech worries. Futures trading associated with the S&P 500 was higher by around 0.3% after the benchmark index shed 1.6% in Thursday trading. Those associated with the Nasdaq were higher by a similar amount after it lost 2.8% yesterday, while Dow Jones Industrial Average-linked futures also rose after dipping yesterday. Despite the early uptick, major market indexes were poised to move lower for the month of February. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note were around 4.285%, while oil futures were lower by more than 1%. Gold futures also fell.

2. Inflation Expected to Decline in January PCE Report

Market participants will be closely following the 8:30 a.m. EST planned release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for January. The data is expected to show inflation came in at an annual rate of 2.5% for the month, according to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. That’s a tick lower than December’s rate but still above the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. The Fed cited worries over continued elevated inflation when it decided last month to not lower interest rates again.

Here’s more from Investopedia on what to expect from the report.

3. Tech Stocks Sinking As Nvidia Leads Sell Off

Following Nvidia’s plunge in trading yesterday, several technology stocks were lower in premarket trading despite some computer sellers beating quarterly earnings estimates. Shares of Dell were lower by about 4% after its earnings report showed that the PC maker had strong quarterly income on the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, but its 7% revenue improvement was lower than analysts expected. HP shares were down about 3% after it beat expectations this quarter, but its earnings outlook was lower than analysts’ forecasts. Nvidia shares were little changed in early trading after plunging by more than 8% yesterday.

4. Trump Sets Date for Canada, Mexico Tariffs as Economic Adviser Sees ‘Reindustrialization’ Strategy

Trump’s announcement that a 25% tariff on products made in Canada and Mexico will go into effect on March 4 weighed on markets yesterday. Oil products from Canada will be taxed at 10%. On top of that, Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on products from China, adding to a 10% tariff he imposed in early February. Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to chair the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, said in a Senate hearing that the U.S. would “reindustrialize” by taxing foreign imports, reducing regulations for businesses and developing the defense industry.

5. Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 to Lowest Levels Since November

Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) price fell below $80,000 for the first time since early November, wiping out nearly all the gains that followed Trump’s reelection. The cryptocurrency’s fall coincided with the broader market selloff as investors weigh economic uncertainty. The selloff is hurting crypto-related stocks as well: Bitcoin buyer Strategy (MSTR), the company formerly called MicroStrategy, was down about 3% in premarket trading after registering a nearly 9% fall in the prior session. Shares of crypto brokerage Coinbase Global (COIN) and bitcoin mining firms Mara Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) were recently down around 3%.

During these busy times, it pays to stay on top of the latest profit opportunities. And today’s blog post should be a great place to start. After taking a close look at the latest data on institutional buying pressure and each company’s fundamental health, I decided to revise my Stock Grader recommendations for 137 big blue chips. Chances are that you have at least one of these stocks in your portfolio, so you may want to give this list a skim and act accordingly.

Upgraded: Buy to Strong Buy

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
BABA	Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR	A	B	A
CART	Maplebear Inc.	A	B	A
CHWY	Chewy, Inc. Class A	A	C	A
CMS	CMS Energy Corporation	A	C	A
EPD	Enterprise Products Partners L.P.	A	C	A
GRAB	Grab Holdings Limited Class A	A	C	A
HLN	Haleon PLC Sponsored ADR	A	C	A
LNG	Cheniere Energy, Inc.	A	C	A
LYG	Lloyds Banking Group plc Sponsored ADR	A	C	A
MAA	Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.	A	C	A
MELI	MercadoLibre, Inc.	A	B	A
REG	Regency Centers Corporation	A	C	A
WPM	Wheaton Precious Metals Corp	A	B	A

Downgraded: Strong Buy to Buy

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
AFL	Aflac Incorporated	A	B	B
AUR	Aurora Innovation, Inc. Class A	A	C	B
CASY	Casey’s General Stores, Inc.	A	C	B
COST	Costco Wholesale Corporation	A	C	B
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	A	C	B
DASH	DoorDash, Inc. Class A	A	C	B
EQH	Equitable Holdings, Inc.	A	B	B
FTI	TechnipFMC plc	B	B	B
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.	A	B	B
NFLX	Netflix, Inc.	A	B	B
SAP	SAP SE Sponsored ADR	A	C	B
TCOM	Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR	B	B	B
TRP	TC Energy Corporation	A	C	B
WFC	Wells Fargo & Company	A	B	B

Upgraded: Hold to Buy

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
AWK	American Water Works Company, Inc.	B	C	B
BEPC	Brookfield Renewable Holdings Corporation Class A	B	C	B
BKNG	Booking Holdings Inc.	B	C	B
CLX	Clorox Company	B	C	B
CNA	CNA Financial Corporation	B	C	B
DOC	Healthpeak Properties, Inc.	B	C	B
EOG	EOG Resources, Inc.	B	C	B
ERIE	Erie Indemnity Company Class A	B	C	B
FMS	Fresenius Medical Care AG Sponsored ADR	B	B	B
FNF	Fidelity National Financial, Inc. – FNF Group	B	C	B
GLPI	Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.	B	C	B
GOLD	Barrick Gold Corporation	B	B	B
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	B	C	B
KB	KB Financial Group Inc. Sponsored ADR	B	B	B
KDP	Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.	B	C	B
KIM	Kimco Realty Corporation	B	B	B
MET	MetLife, Inc.	B	C	B
NVS	Novartis AG Sponsored ADR	B	C	B
PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	B	C	B
PEN	Penumbra, Inc.	B	C	B
RIVN	Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A	B	C	B
SRE	Sempra	B	D	B
SW	Smurfit Westrock PLC	B	C	B
TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	B	D	B
UDR	UDR, Inc.	B	C	B
UL	Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR	B	C	B
WPC	W. P. Carey Inc.	B	D	B

Downgraded: Buy to Hold

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	C	C	C
AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	C	B	C
BAP	Credicorp Ltd.	C	C	C
CF	CF Industries Holdings, Inc.	C	C	C
CPAY	Corpay, Inc.	B	C	C
CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A	C	C	C
DVA	DaVita Inc.	C	B	C
EMN	Eastman Chemical Company	C	C	C
EXE	Expand Energy Corporation	B	C	C
FLUT	Flutter Entertainment Plc	B	C	C
HDB	HDFC Bank Limited Sponsored ADR	B	C	C
IBN	ICICI Bank Limited Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
IHG	InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
KSPI	Kaspi.kz Joint Stock Company Sponsored ADR RegS	C	C	C
LAMR	Lamar Advertising Company Class A	C	D	C
NU	Nu Holdings Ltd. Class A	D	B	C
NWS	News Corporation Class B	C	B	C
PCTY	Paylocity Holding Corp.	C	C	C
RELX	RELX PLC Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
SCCO	Southern Copper Corporation	C	B	C
TS	Tenaris S.A. Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	C	C	C
YUMC	Yum China Holdings, Inc.	C	C	C

Upgraded: Sell to Hold

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
A	Agilent Technologies, Inc.	C	C	C
ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	B	C	C
ADM	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	C	C	C
AME	AMETEK, Inc.	C	C	C
ASX	ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
CARR	Carrier Global Corp.	C	C	C
EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	D	B	C
FDS	FactSet Research Systems Inc.	C	C	C
GMAB	Genmab A/S Sponsored ADR	D	A	C
HSY	Hershey Company	C	C	C
JKHY	Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.	C	C	C
MDLZ	Mondelez International, Inc. Class A	D	C	C
MNST	Monster Beverage Corporation	C	C	C
MT	ArcelorMittal SA ADR	C	C	C
NBIX	Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.	C	C	C
PBR.A	Petroleo Brasileiro SA Sponsored ADR Pfd	C	C	C
PCG	PG&E Corporation	C	C	C
PFG	Principal Financial Group, Inc.	C	C	C
ROK	Rockwell Automation, Inc.	C	C	C
SWK	Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.	C	C	C
SYY	Sysco Corporation	D	C	C
TAK	Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
TECK	Teck Resources Limited Class B	D	C	C
TRMB	Trimble Inc.	D	C	C
U	Unity Software, Inc.	C	C	C
VRTX	Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated	C	C	C
WPP	WPP Plc Sponsored ADR	C	C	C
WTRG	Essential Utilities, Inc.	C	C	C

Downgraded: Hold to Sell

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
AFG	American Financial Group, Inc.	D	C	D
ALLE	Allegion Public Limited Company	D	C	D
BBD	Banco Bradesco SA Sponsored ADR Pfd	D	B	D
CNQ	Canadian Natural Resources Limited	D	C	D
COO	Cooper Companies, Inc.	D	B	D
EPAM	EPAM Systems, Inc.	D	C	D
EW	Edwards Lifesciences Corporation	D	C	D
GIB	CGI Inc. Class A	D	C	D
HD	Home Depot, Inc.	D	C	D
LIN	Linde plc	D	C	D
LOW	Lowe’s Companies, Inc.	D	C	D
NVR	NVR, Inc.	D	C	D
PFGC	Performance Food Group Co	D	D	D
RDY	Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. Sponsored ADR	D	C	D
SHW	Sherwin-Williams Company	D	C	D
SLF	Sun Life Financial Inc.	D	D	D
STE	STERIS plc	D	C	D
STLD	Steel Dynamics, Inc.	D	D	D
TGT	Target Corporation	D	C	D
TMO	Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.	D	C	D
TOL	Toll Brothers, Inc.	D	D	D
VIV	Telefonica Brasil S.A. Sponsored ADR	D	C	D
XYZ	Block, Inc. Class A	D	C	D

Upgraded: Strong Sell to Sell

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
DG	Dollar General Corporation	F	D	D
FMX	Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB de CV Sponsored ADR Class B	F	C	D
ICLR	ICON Plc	F	C	D
STZ	Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A	F	C	D
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions, Inc.	F	D	D
ZBH	Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.	F	D	D

Downgraded: Sell to Strong Sell

Symbol	Company Name	Quantitative Grade	Fundamental Grade	Total Grade
CSX	CSX Corporation	F	C	F
NVT	nVent Electric plc	F	D	F
WDS	Woodside Energy Group Ltd Sponsored ADR	F	C	F

To stay on top of my latest stock ratings, plug your holdings into Stock Grader, my proprietary stock screening tool. But, you must be a subscriber to one of my premium services. Or, if you are a member of one of my premium services, you can go here to get started.

Sincerely,

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/market360/2025/02/20250225-blue-chip-upgrades-downgrades/.

©2025 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

• Global equities remain under pressure, while the US dollar extends its rebound amid rising risk aversion. Treasury yields are experiencing their worst weekly slide since September.
• Recent US economic data has been mixed, with GDP growing at 2.3% but jobless claims hitting a two-month high. Despite signs of slowing momentum, the dollar found support from geopolitical concerns and tariff announcements.
• Trump confirmed the implementation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and hinted at further levies on China. Trump declined to commit to a security backstop for Ukraine, instead prioritizing peace talks with Russia.
• Trump is now targeting the EU with potential 25% tariffs, though details remain unclear. Meanwhile, Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, signaled no immediate fiscal reforms or military spending increases.
• The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week to 2.5%, but policymakers remain divided. Some worry about persistent inflation and trade risks, while others highlight weak growth and the risk of missing the 2% inflation target.
• The ECB meeting will be closely watched for guidance on future rate cuts, while the US jobs report will shape expectations for the Fed’s policy path. These events will be crucial in determining currency and market movements in the coming week.

Global Macro
Risk-off across the board

The global equity selloff continues, the US dollar’s rebound is gaining traction and Treasury yields are suffering their worst weekly slide since September. Investors are avoiding risky bets due to Donald Trump ratcheting up tariff threats, which has seen the euro pull back sharply from 2-month highs versus the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound is outperforming most G10 peers bar the dollar and franc this week and is eyeing its highest weekly close in over three years versus the euro.

Weaker data. The trade and geopolitical news flows once again overshadowed what seemed to be a pretty important week for US macro developments. Durable goods, home sales, jobless claims and GDP data sent mixed signals about the state of the world’s largest economy. GDP grew by an annualized 2.3%, while unemployment claims rose to a 2-month high and tumbled for a second consecutive month. Overall, the data continues to point to weaker economic momentum ahead and the dollar would have depreciated against this backdrop would it not have been for the tariff news.

Tariff uncertainty. Markets once again reacted to fresh tariff announcements made by the US President. Donald Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect, while also hinting at potential new levies on China as soon as March. This bolstered the dollar against the Canadian Dollar and Mexican peso. However, the strengthening of the Greenback broadened out to most major currencies as well.

Ukraine in focus. Beyond trade, Trump’s refusal to commit to a security backstop in Ukraine added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reiterated that the focus should first be on securing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, rather than discussing long-term military commitments.

Commodities lower for now. In the commodities space, oil prices are trading a multi-month lows having lost around 4% this month as Trump’s aggressive moves on trade triggered anxiety at a time when oil traders were already concerned about lackluster consumption in China. Moreover, hopes for a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal weighed on the market, as lifting Russian sanctions could increase global oil supply. Commodity FX thus remains under pressure with the Aussie and Canadian dollars trading softer.

Trump’s new target. Trump stated he intends to impose duties of 25% on the European Union without giving any further details on whether those would affect all exports from the bloc or only certain products or sectors. Meanwhile, Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, ruled out a swift reform of the country’s borrowing limits and said it was too early to determine whether the outgoing parliament could approve a major military spending increase.

Cautiously dovish. The ECB remains confident that policy is still restrictive, but the debate over future rate cuts is intensifying as per the meeting minutes released yesterday. A 25bp cut next week to 2.5% is expected, yet officials are divided. Some have shown worries about sticky services inflation and trade risks, while others fear weak growth and missing the 2% inflation target. The neutral rate remains a wildcard, with policymakers questioning its usefulness as a policy guide. Meanwhile, disinflation is on track, but wage growth and energy risks call for caution.

Week ahead
Litmus test for the US economy

This week brings a crucial mix of central bank decisions, inflation data, and labor market reports that will shape market sentiment and dictate currency movements. The ECB meeting takes center stage, as investors assess whether policymakers will hint at a timeline for rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the US, the February jobs report will provide key insights into the strength of the labor market and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

US. ISM PMI data will provide key insights into US economic momentum. A weak manufacturing print could raise growth concerns, while the services sector remains crucial for inflation trends. The ADP Employment report will serve as a preview of Friday’s payrolls release, with markets watching closely for any signs of labor market softening. The most critical release of the week, however, will be Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment. If job growth slows from the previously weak 143k, expectations for a Fed rate cut could accelerate, putting pressure on the dollar.

Eurozone. The spotlight in the Eurozone will be on the European Central Bank’s policy decision, with markets expecting a rate cut that would bring the deposit facility rate down to 2.5% from 2.75%. However, the outlook beyond this move remains uncertain. Policymakers are divided between concerns over sticky services inflation, higher energy costs, and potential U.S. trade tariffs on one side, and sluggish economic growth alongside the risk of missing the 2% inflation target on the other. The latest GDP figures will also provide insight into the region’s economic trajectory.

FX Views
Back to havens as uncertainty prevails

USD Balancing tariffs and weaker growth. The US dollar index will likely end the week higher, a feat the dollar has only achieved once in the last seven weeks. Overall, US macro data continues to point to weaker economic momentum ahead and the dollar would have depreciated against this backdrop would it not have been for the tariff news boosting the safe haven buck. Conviction around a sustained dollar rally is fading though, as tariff fatigue and growth concerns begin to weigh on sentiment. In fact, the dollar has suffered its biggest monthly loss (-1%) since August 2024 and is negative against most G10 peers year-to-date. Traders remain cautious amidst elevated trade uncertainty and lack of policy clarity and FX markets will remain driven by trade headlines, with the dollar benefiting from renewed tariff bet. But the long-term picture remains far from clear. For a meaningful rebound, dollar bulls will need either stronger US economic data or an escalation in the global trade war. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be critical. If job growth slows, expectations for a Fed rate cut could accelerate, pressuring the dollar.

EUR Topped out in short term. The euro has staged a modest appreciation against the US dollar in February, despite having fallen to an over 2-year low earlier in the month. EUR/USD has risen around 4% from near $1.01 to testing the key psychological (and resistance) handle of $1.05, though still six cents below its 5-year average. A cyclically-driven turn in the US dollar has been noteworthy, with soft US economic data disappointing, helping EUR/USD rebound, but hard data remains robust for now. Reports of a possible peace agreement in Ukraine is also seen as providing a modest boost to EU economies, mainly due to higher military spending prompted by increased security fears, plus lower gas prices alleviating energy cost concerns and providing further support to the euro. However, the latest bout of tariff risks in the latter stages of this week saw the euro slide back under $1.04 after failing to break above its 100-day moving average multiple times. Next week, all eyes are on the ECB rate decision. A 25bps cut is expected so attention will be on forward guidance and how officials view the weak growth outlook versus reflation fears.

GBP Snaps 4-month losing streak. After appreciating against just 6% of its global peers in January, the pound’s good fortunes returned as it appreciated against over 70% of its peers in February. This was thanks to some more upbeat UK data, hawkish BoE commentary and the fact the UK is seen as less exposed to Trump’s tariff threats. Due to higher interest rates in the UK relative to other G10 peers though, the pound’s elevated carry status increases its exposure to equity market fluctuations. Hence, this week’s risk aversion has dragged GBP/USD from a fresh 2-month high of $1.27 to under $1.26. However, sterling has also appreciated against all other G10 peers this week bar the franc, in a sign that it may be deemed a tariff-haven of sorts. Indeed, against the euro, the pound has edged up above the €1.21 resistance level and a weekly close above here would be the highest in three years, with €1.22 the next upside target. Against the dollar, despite the slide this week, the pound is still primed for an over 1% rise this month, snapping a 4-month losing streak.

CHF Turning to havens. The Swiss franc appreciated against 70% of its global peers in February, up from the mere 20% it rose against the month prior. FX traders are seeking safety in traditional havens like CHF as they look to hedge against potential shocks from trade policy, geopolitics and political uncertainty. This is further evidenced by the fact one-month implied-realized volatility spreads show only franc and yen options are overpriced amongst the G10. However, the franc is vulnerable against the yen as the prospect of a positive carry on the latter currency looms large. Still, CHF/JPY has gained a whopping 55% over the past six years, so a correction lower is long overdue. Against the euro and the pound, the franc is also historically overvalued and has appreciated for two weeks on the trot against the former. However, if talks to end the war in Ukraine show signs of bearing fruit, the franc could come under selling pressure if it spurs risk appetite, though tariff policy remains a key source of uncertainty.

CAD On edge until the last minute? The USD/CAD has rebounded from its weekly low of 1.4182, just above its 20-weekly SMA, reaching a 3-week high of 1.4443—a 261 pips increase—as tariff risk premia rise amidst uncertain trade policy decisions. Contradictory messages about plans to enact tariffs on Canada and Mexico have heightened volatility, especially in the USD/CAD pair, with implied volatility surging as March 4th approaches. A last-minute deadline extension to April 2nd remains possible, but we expect volatility to remain elevated until a formal confirmation is made. The Loonie is targeting important resistance at 1.445 and may maintain upward momentum as nervousness increases and protection against a break above 1.45 puts pressure on it. The 60-day SMA at 1.433 is a crucial support level if tariffs are postponed for another month.

Next week will be filled with macroeconomic data that will provide a better gauge of the US economy, featuring payrolls (Fri) and ISM manufacturing (Mon) as key data points. In Canada, manufacturing (Mon) and the unemployment rate (Fri) will be in focus.

AUD RBA’s communication shift bolsters Aussie resilience. The RBA may stop naming dissenting board members under its new monetary policy committee regime to limit “noise” around rate decisions. Deputy Governor Hauser expects further positive inflation news but remains cautious given Australia’s tight labor market. The committee will likely present unified views in public speeches moving forward. Technically, AUD/USD shows mixed signals after Cloud rejection on February 21 with easing upward momentum suggesting a potential near-term pullback. However, the broader outlook remains positive with price closed within the Cloud and the falling wedge pattern resolved after reaching 93% of its 0.6421 target. Any pullback should find support at the lower Cloud (around 0.6200). A breakout above the Cloud would expose moves to 0.6545, then 0.6688. Market focus shifts to upcoming current account, retail sales, and GDP data for further directional cues.

JPY Wage demands fuel Yen’s technical breakout. Japan Metal Worker Unions are demanding record pay increases of 14% year-on-year, adding to wage growth momentum that could support BOJ policy normalization. Market pricing for a May BOJ rate increase remains modest at 5.375bp, supported by recent increases in underlying inflation measures. The rising wedge pattern in USD/JPY remains valid with a technical target at 145.50. A head and shoulders top formation on the weekly chart reinforces the negative outlook. Rebounds to Cloud resistance (around 153.74) would be tolerated before reconsidering this view. Chart shows USD/JPY performance over the years from 1975 onwards. USD/JPY returned circa -5% YTD. Markets will closely monitor upcoming unemployment rate, capital spending, monetary base, and household confidence data for additional clues on BOJ policy direction.

CNY Diplomatic tones accelerate Yuan strength. President Xi urged officials to respond calmly to challenges while expanding economic opening, signaling a measured approach to Trump policies. Trump indicated the US-China relationship will be “a very good one,” encouraging bilateral investment, though decoupling concerns persist with looming tariffs and his America First Investment Policy. USD/CNH displays increasing downside bias after closing below the Cloud, though overnight downside exhaustion candlestick with softer downward momentum suggests a potential near-term corrective rebound. The pair remains technically negative below the Cloud with 7.1475 as the next target. Any upside should be rejected around Cloud resistance (approximately 7.3000). A break above the Cloud would weaken negative conviction and expose 7.3682. No significant economic data releases are scheduled, keeping focus on geopolitical developments.

MXN 50bps cuts will continue

• Banxico’s latest report supports further monetary easing, citing lower growth forecasts and stable inflation projections.
• The dovish tone suggests additional rate cuts are anticipated. Governor Rodríguez reiterated that future rate cuts will likely mirror the recent 50 basis point reduction.
• Banxico presented different technical research summaries, with an emphasis on the evolution of average and extreme variations in core inflation.
• The inflation study indicates reduced inflationary pressures, aligning core inflation closer to pre-pandemic levels.
• Effects of global shocks on inflation have diminished, with most seasonally adjusted price variations returning to pre-pandemic levels.
• Extreme variations in core inflation have reached levels below pre-pandemic trends.
• The report reinforces expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut at the next two meetings, bringing the reference rate to 8.50%.
• Despite global uncertainties, Banxico remains committed to its rate cut strategy.
• The unresolved tariff threat and the ongoing USMCA renegotiation contribute to elevated market uncertainty.
• Structural issues related to USMCA may take time to resolve, maintaining heightened uncertainty.
• Gradual carry loss is expected to weigh on the Mexican peso (MXN), reducing its capacity to absorb external shocks.

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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.